The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Nashville Superspeedway this week for another intermediate track race. This will be the fourth consecutive race on an intermediate track, but Nashville is different from the 1.5-mile “cookie-cutter” tracks we had last month (Texas, Kansas and Charlotte). Nashville is a 1.33-mile, concrete track that has speed, but also creates a lot of cautions. There should be a lot of excitement in one of the best NASCAR cities outside of Charlotte. The Cracker Barrel 400 can be seen Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR NASHVILLE
Nashville Superspeedway is one of the toughest tracks to predict. This 1.33-mile track is classified as an intermediate track by NASCAR, but some teams say it races like a short track. The concrete surface and the size make Nashville comparable to Dover, but the Cup Series has not made the trip to the Monster Mile yet. I will use the stats from the intermediate tracks this year and combine them with the stats from the three races at Nashville in the Gen-7 car. That should give us an idea of which drivers have had speed on similar tracks in 2025 and which drivers are good in the Music City.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Nashville Superspeedway and the races on the intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule Saturday at Nashville Superspeedway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Cracker Barrel 400. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice, since this track is only 1.33-miles in length.
So, how do the practice speeds at Nashville translate into race speed last year? The race was extended many times because of cautions and that turned last year’s race into a fuel mileage race. The top-five drivers before the chaos at the end of last year’s race were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Ty Gibbs and Kyle Busch. Gibbs was fastest in practice last year, Chastain was fourth-fastest, Larson was sixth-fastest and Hamlin and Busch were well done the speed chart. Those two drivers typically run better than they practice, so it looks like the single-lap average speed translated into race speed at Nashville last year.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Nashville Superspeedway….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 300 laps (399 miles). That means there are 75 points available for leading laps and 135 points available for fastest laps (210 dominator points). The trend in the Cup Series at Nashville Superspeedway is for one driver to lead roughly 110 laps and score 44 fastest laps (47.3 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 74 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (37.4 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 50 laps and scores 26 fastest laps (24.2 dominator points). The last dominator leads roughly 32 laps and scores 20 fastest laps (17 dominator points).
There is a good chance that three drivers will score 25+ dominators points Sunday night. It may be tough to win your DFS Contest if you do not have these three drivers in your lineups. I plan to pay up for the drivers I think can lead the most laps, even if that means playing some scrubs at the bottom of my lineup.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): There have been four different winners in the four races at Nashville Superspeedway. Hamlin has a good chance to extend that streak to five drivers in five races. Hamlin leads the Cup Series with 265-laps led in the Gen-7 car at Nashville and his 7th-place average finishing position is 2nd-best in the Cup Series. The No. 11 car has the speed to lead a lot of laps and finish up front Sunday.
* Denny Hamlin is on “Baby Watch”. I will update this pick if Hamlin has to leave the track and go be with his wife.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,500): Bell has been pretty good on the intermediate tracks lately. He finished 9th at Texas, 2nd at Kansas and 8th at Charlotte. Bell finished three of his four races at Nashville in the top-10. The race he failed to finish up front, he led 131 laps. Bell has a great chance to a lot of laps and finish in the top-five Sunday.
* Everyone if going to pare DENNY HAMLIN with KYLE LARSON in Cash Contest lineups. Larson told PRN Radio after practice, “This is the worst car I have had all year. It cannot drive at all through the corners. We are junk.” I will pivot to CHRISTOPHER BELL to get another potential dominator in the lineup.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,200): The 2025 season has been rough for the No. 12 team. Their cars consistently have speed, but they consistently have problems during the race. Blaney dominated his group is practice. He was so fast that he ignored his team’s orders to come in and work on the car. Blaney has the speed to win Sunday night. .
RYAN PREECE ($7,300): Preece has been one of the surprises this season. He has been really good on the intermediate tracks. Preece finished 3rd in Las Vegas, 9th at Homestead, 7th at Kansas and 9th in Charlotte. That is a lot of top-10 finishes on tracks similar to Nashville. Preece finished 4th in this race last year. He should have a good chance to finish up front Sunday.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($5,500): Nemechek finished 8th in Texas and 10th in Kansas. He came back to Earth last week when Nemechek finished 27th in the Coca-Cola 600. So, which version of Nemechek will we get this week? The Toyota’s have a history of running well in Nashville. I will take a chance with Nemechek for only $5,500 Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,700): Gilliland had about the same speed as John H. Nemechek in practice and he has been running well too. Gilliland started 32nd, finished 11th and scored 54 DK Points in Texas. He started 23rd, finished 12th and scored 43 DK Points in Kansas. Gilliland started 34th, finished 18th and scored 44 DK Points last week in Charlotte. He has been one of the best at scoring place differential points, so I will take a chance with Gilliland Sunday night.
* I am not completely fading KYLE LARSON. I will have him in 35% of my lineups Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE BRISCOE ($8,900): It took a while, but it seems like Briscoe is starting to figure out the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. He finished 4th at Kansas and 3rd at Charlotte. His stats at Nashville are not great, but Martin Truex Jr. was one of the best in the No. 19 car at Nashville. The car has the same speed that it had with Truex in it. Briscoe should be able to finish up front Sunday. Briscoe should lead a lot of laps if he can hold off Denny Hamlin at the start of the race.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,800): I wasn’t planning on using Reddick at Nashville but he has one of the fastest cars this weekend. Reddick posted the fastest single laps speed and the fastest long-run speed in practice. He then went out and qualified 4th for the race. I just cannot fade that kind of speed. Reddick has the speed to be one of the top dominators Sunday night.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($10,000): I used Chastain in all of my lineups last week and he rewarded me with 88 DK Points. I will go back to Chastain Sunday. Trackhouse Racing builds their cars in Concord, North Carolina, but their headquarters is in Nasshville. This is one of the most important races for the team and Chastain usually shows up for the sponsors. He won this race in 2023 and he finished 2nd in 2021. Chastain has the speed to lead some laps and finish up front again Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,200): Logano won at Nashville last year, but it was because his No. 22 car was able to stretch the fuel-mileage longer than any other driver. Logano has finished three of the four races in Nashville in the top-10. The No. 22 car found some speed at the end of practice, so I will take a chance with Lagono at Nashville Superspeedway.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($6,900): This is a home race for Trackhouse Racing and there is going to be a lot or pressure on Suarez. His contract is up at the end of the season and there will be a lot of sponsors at the track with his team. He needs a good race or he may be looking for a new ride next year. Suarez posted the 14th-fastest speed in practice on the long runs. Suarez finished three of his four races in Nashville in the top-15. He should be able to finish in the top-15 again Sunday.
TY DILLON ($5,000): I have been using Dillon a lot this year as my “punt play” and so far he has not let me down. He is really good at grinding out races and finding a way to finish inside the top-20. Dillon will be a great pick for $5K if he finishes inside the top-20 Sunday night.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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