The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series has made its way to the final race of the season. It is now time to crown the 2025 champion, but before I get into the preview for the Championship Race, I want to say THANK YOU!!! My goal every year is to provide you the best picks and teach you a little bit about how to be a better Fantasy NASCAR player. I appreciate you giving me the chance to be your “Fantasy NASCAR Crew Chief.”
CHAMPIONSHIP FOUR
DENNY HAMLIN earned his spot into the Championship Four with his win at Las Vegas. Could this be the season when Hamlin FINALLY wins his first championship? The No. 11 Team has had three weeks to prepare their car for Phoenix. Hamlin has an average finishing position of 9th in the three playoff races at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car era. Hamlin finished 12th at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used Sunday. Hamlin is going to need to improve those stats if he wants to get the monkey off of his back this weekend.
KYLE LARSON earned his spot into the Championship Four on points. It is hard to believe, but Larson has not won a race since he went to Victory Lane at Kansas Speedway in May. Larson won the Cup Series Championship in 2021, but he has never won in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. His average finishing position in the three playoff races at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car is 5.3. Larson finished 7th at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used Sunday. Larson will likely need to end his five month winless drought in order to be the championship Sunday. I would not bet against him Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON earned his way to the Championship Four with his win at Martinsville. Byron has the most going for him out of the four drivers competing for the championship. Byron has momentum after his win last week. His 4.3 average finishing position in the playoff races in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix is the best out of the four drivers. His third-place finish in New Hampshire on the tire that will be used Sunday was also the best of the four drivers. The stats like Byron to win his first championship Sunday. It is hard to disagree with them.
CHASE BRISCOE earned his spot in the Championship Four with his win at Talladega. His is probably the underdog this weekend, but should he be? Briscoe is the No. 1 seed in the Champion Four after he scored the most points in the playoffs. He also won at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car in 2022. This is his first time competing in the Champion Four, but it seems like he is playing with house money because no one expected Briscoe to be here in his first season at Joe Gibbs Racing. I would not be shocked if Briscoe won his first Championship Sunday.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
This is championship weekend and that means NASCAR needs a Championship Schedule. The Cup Series had a 50-minute practice session Friday and then they were able to make adjustments before qualifying Saturday afternoon. This is how the schedule used to be and it is refreshing to see this schedule back for the races at Phoenix.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Phoenix Raceway…
DFS STATS FOR MARTINSVILLE
The Cup Series last competed at Phoenix Raceway in March. Goodyear brought an “option tire” to the track and the teams had a choice to use the harder tire or the softer tire in the race. Goodyear decided NOT to bring the tire that was used at Phoenix in March to the race this weekend. Instead, they will use the tire that was run at New Hampshire, North Wilksboro (All-Star Race) and Richmond. Christopher Bell, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain tested this tire at New Hampshire in March. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano led 216 of the 301 laps on this tire at New Hampshire in September. These drivers get a bump up in the Driver Rankings this week.
So, how do we handicap the race at Phoenix? The Championship Race has a history of playing out like the race at New Hampshire in September, when the same tire compound is used. That is the case this weekend. I will give the race in New Hampshire extra weight in the DFS Models this week. I will also use the stats from the races at Richmond, North Wilksboro and the last three playoff races at Phoenix (Gen-7 car era).
Here are the stats in the last three playoff races at Phoenix and the races at Richmond and New Hampshire this summer, sorted by DraftKings Points.…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 312 laps (312 Miles). That means there are 78 points available for leading laps and 140.4 points available for fastest laps (218.4 dominator points). The trend in the last three playoff races at Phoenix is for one driver to lead roughly 120 laps and score 44 fastest laps (49.8 Dominator Points). Another driver leads roughly 110 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (46.4 Dominator Points). We have to pay up for the two drivers who we think can lead the most laps Sunday.
The Championship Four drivers have a history of dominating the final race at Phoenix. These drivers get plenty of room on the track from the drivers who are not competing for the championship. Most people will be jamming in as many of the playoff drivers as possible into their lineups this weekend. That is a great strategy, but do not sleep on the two Team Penske drivers. NASCAR brought the tire that was used at New Hampshire to the track this week. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano combined to lead 263 of the 301 laps at New Hampshire. The Fords and Team Penske got shut out of the Championship Four this year. The two Team Penske drivers would love to steal the show and dominated the race Sunday, just like they have in every playoff race at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car era. I will be pivoting to Blaney and Logano from the Championship Four drivers in some of my lineups Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($12,000): This will be the fifth-time Hamlin has made it to the Championship Four. He has never won, but he has been close. His average finishing position in the playoff races at Phoenix in this car is 9th. Hamlin finished 12th at New Hampshire on the tire that will be used Sunday. The No. 11 Team had three weeks to work on their car for Phoenix. Obviously they found some speed. Hamlin has the speed and track position to dominate the race and the upside to “beat your favorite driver” and win his first championship.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,700): The Team Penske cars have dominated the playoff races at Phoenix and it could happen again Sunday. Goodyear brought the same tire that was used at New Hampshire in September to the championship race this weekend. Blaney led 116 laps, scored 17 Stage Points and won the race at New Hampshire. He also finished 2nd in four of the last six races at Phoenix. Blaney posted the second-fast speed in practice and had the fastest car on the long-runs. Blaney has a great chance to dominate the race Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($8,500): Berry has been at his best this year on the short, flat tracks. He finished 4th at Phoenix in March, 8th at Richmond in August and 2nd at New Hampshire in September. The tire that will be used this week is the same that was used at Richmond and New Hampshire. Berry race well in those races and I expect the No. 21 car to run well again this weekend in Phoenix.
RYAN PREECE ($7,000): Preece has just been “OK” at Phoenix in his career. I am using him this week based on what he did on this tire at New Hampshire in September and the speed he had in practice Friday. Preece started 23rd and finished 14th at New Hampshire. That was good enough for 44 DK Points. His car is fast enough to score some place differential points and be a good pick for your DFS lineups at Phoenix.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($6,100): This is a home race for McDowell. The Phoenix, Arizona native never had much luck at this track, but he is getting better. I really like what I saw from McDowell on this tire at New Hampshire. McDowell started 11th and finished 8th. McDowell starts 37th Sunday. He should score 10-15 place differential points and be a good pick for your Cash Contest lineup.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,600): Gilliland is on a hot streak right now. He finished 2nd at Talladega and 9th last week at Martinsville. Gilliland also finished his last three races at Phoenix in the top-20. One of the best races this year for Gilliland was at New Hampshire in September. Gilliland had to start dead last because his team had to repair his car after practice. Gilliland raced through the field and finished 19th. He starts 30th Sunday, so he has a great chance to score some place differential points and be a good pick this weekend.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
KYLE LARSON ($11,500): It is hard to believe that Larson has not won a race since Kansas in May. The No. 5 car has been good, but not great on the short, flat tracks this year. Larson finished 3rd at Phoenix in March, 6th at Richmond and 7th at New Hampshire. The No. 5 car posted the second-fastest speed on the long-runs in practice and qualified 3rd for the race. Larson is one of the best drivers in “must win” situations so I will use him as one of my dominators Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($11,000): Can this be the weekend when Byron wins his first championship? He has some momentum after his win last week at Martinsville and he has been really good at Phoenix. Byron won at Phoenix in March of 2023 and he finished 3rd and 6th in his last two trips to the track. Byron also finished 3rd at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used at Phoenix. The No. 24 car has the speed and the track position to dominate a portion of the race and finish up front Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($9,000): If you think Chastain is going to pull over and let one of the championship four drivers win the race Sunday, you do not know Chastain. He has a history of racing the championship four drivers hard in this race. Chastain finished 3rd in the playoff race at Phoenix in 2022 and he won the race in 2023. The No. 1 car has the speed to finish up front again Sunday.
AUSTIN DILLON ($6,500): Dillon has been at his best this year on the short, flat tracks similar to Phoenix. Dillon won the race at Richmond in August, finished 13th at New Hampshire and Dillon finished 12th at Phoenix in March. I know it is hard to trust Dillon in your DFS lineups, but he should be one of the best value picks on the slate this weekend.
ERIK JONES ($6,400): Jones had a decent race at Phoenix in March. He qualified 5th and finished 18th. Legacy Motorsports is trying their best to find some speed for the 2026 season. At least we know they are not going to give up on this race. Jones will race hard and that may not be the case for every team in the garage this weekend. The Toyota’s looked good at Phoenix in March, so I will take a chance with Jones Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,600): I hate using a cheap driver in both lineups, but Gilliland is the best value in the game this week. I thought about using AJ Allmendinger, but he has been horrible in his last two races, he wrecked twice in practice and he said, “I just want to get through the race Sunday and get to the off-season.” That doesn’t sound like a driver who is going to race hard Sunday. I feel more confident with Gilliland in this lineup.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
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