The Cup Series traveled across the country this week for the first of two races in the western desert. The first is a trip to Phoenix Raceway and then next week the Cup Series travels to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The story so far this season has been Tyler Reddick. He won the first three races. Can he make it four in a row? This race is typically dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske. If Reddick wins in Phoenix, we may have to put 23XI Racing at the top of the food chain in NASCAR. The Straight Talk Wireless 500 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal practice sessions Saturday. The drivers were broken down into two groups. Each group had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Straight Talk Wireless 500. So, how much will we learn from practice? Only four of the drivers who posted top-12 speed in practice last year, finished the race in the top-10. Here are the four drivers…
There were only two drivers who posted top-10 speed on the 10-Lap Average Speed Chart that finished the race in the top-10 last year. Those drivers were Chris Buescher and William Byron.
So, practice speed did not translate into race speed last year because the teams had two sets of tires to use in practice (the option tire and the primary tire). This screwed up the practice speeds because some of the best teams for the race used the option tire (slower tire) in practice. This will not be the case this week. There is only one tire (softer tire), so the practice times should translate into race speed, but it shouldn’t be the only factor we use in setting our lineups Sunday.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Phoenix Raceway…
* The long run speed is the best indicator of race speed at Phoenix Raceway.
FANTASY STATS FOR PHOENIX
Phoenix has two races each year and they could not be more different. The race in March plays out like the races at Richmond, New Hampshire and Iowa. The race in November has been the championship race. Most of the teams get out of the way and let the Championship Four drivers have plenty of room on the track in November. I like to use the stats from the March races at Phoenix and combine them with the stats from the races at Richmond, New Hampshire and Iowa. This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at Phoenix and the other short, flat tracks.
Here are the driver’s stats from the last three spring races at Phoenix and the other short, flat track races last year sorted by DraftKings Points…
STRATEGY FOR PHOENIX
The race Sunday is scheduled for 312 laps (312 miles). That means there are 78 points available for leading laps and 140.4 points available for fastest laps (218.4 dominator points). The race last year had three dominators. The spring race in 2024 had five dominators and the spring race in 2023 had three dominators. We should get at least three dominators in the race Sunday. The main dominator leads roughly 110 laps and scores 50 fastest laps (50 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 70 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (36.4 dominator points). The final dominator leads roughly 60 laps and scores 38 fastest laps (32.1 dominator points). We are going to need to pay up for at least two of these drivers. We will win every contest if we hit on all three dominators.
WINNING LINEUPS AT COTA 2022-2025
Christopher Bell and William Byron have been in three of the last six winning lineups at Phoenix. They have been the best drivers for your DFS Contests in the spring races at Phoenix. Denny Hamlin was in both winning lineups last year. Unlike the first three races this season, the winning lineups at Phoenix typically spend $49,900 of the $50,000 salary cap. Every winning lineup had a driver who started on the front row and led a lot of laps.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,200): Bell has been a beast in the spring races at Phoenix Raceway. He won the spring race at Phoenix in 2024 and then bell came back to the track last year and won again. Bell leads the Cup Series in green flag passes and he is second in green flag speed over the last three spring races at Phoenix. I am not worried about his starting position. Bell led 105 laps from the 11th starting position last year. He can do the same from the 12th starting position Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,200): Logano is at his best on the short, flat tracks. He was one of the best drivers in the field in this race last year. Logano led 81 laps, finished 2nd in Stage 2, but the No. 22 car was penalized for cutting the dog-leg before the start-finish line on the restart. Logano has wins at Phoenix in 2022 and 2024. The No. 22 car was one of the fastest on the long runs in practice. Logano said he was worried about his short-run speed. Well, problem solved… Logano won the pole for the race and he has the No. 1 pit stall. Logano should score a lot of dominator points and be one of the best picks on the slate.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,000): Elliott is one of the safest picks in the field this week. All he does is stack top-10 finishes at the oval tracks. That works perfectly for the new Chase Format, but it would be nice if the No. 9 car could score some dominator points for our DFS lineups. I’ve seen this show too many times before… Elliott qualifies in the back of the pack and then he slowly works his way into a top-10 finish. That is perfect for Cash Contest lineups.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,300): I wasn’t planning on playing Keselowski because I thought his price was too high. Keselowski had a tire go down in practice and he hit the wall. He will start 37th in a backup car. Keselowski has an average finishing position of 14th in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix Raceway. He will be in every winning lineup if he finishes anywhere near the 14th position Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,200): Wallace wasn’t on my radar for the race at Phoenix Raceway before the season, but 23X1 Racing is on fire right now. Wallace starts 28th. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix is 18.7. Wallace has a good chance to score 10+ place differential points and help your Cash Contest lineup reach the pay-line Sunday.
TODD GILLIALAND ($5,700): We always have one driver from the $5K price range in the winning lineup at Phoenix. That driver could be Gilliland this week. He was in both of the winning lineups in 2024. Gilliland starts 30th and he posted the 13th fastest long run speed in practice. Gilliland has an average finishing position of 19th in his last four races at Phoenix Raceway. He is the best “punt play” in the field this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
RYAN BLANEY ($11,200): Blaney won the last two races on the short, flat tracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire). His engine blew in this race last year, but he has been a model of consistency in the races where he did not have any mechanical issues. Blaney finished 1st, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and 4th in his other races at the track. Blaney posted the fastest long-run speed in his group in practice. Blaney is my top dominator and my pick to win, so I will play him, despite his high ownership.
KYLE LARSON ($10,500): The winning lineup at Phoenix ALWAYS has at least one driver from the front row. Everyone is going to play Joey Logano, so I will pivot to Larson. He has the best average finishing position at Phoenix over the last three seasons (5.2). He has only led 13 laps in his last five races at this track, so his ownership should be lower than it should be. If Larson gets the early lead, watch out. He could dominate most of the race Sunday. It is a risky pick, but you have to be willing to gamble to win a large Tournament Contests.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,500): Buescher is one of the most consistent drivers at Phoenix Raceway. He has an average finishing position of 8th in his last six races in Phoenix. That is third-best in the Cup Series behind Kyle Larson (5.2) and Ryan Blaney (6.7). Buescher had a tire go down in practice, so I am hoping that lowers his ownership. His car is fine. Buescher should score enough place differential points to allow this lineup to win some cash.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($7,700): I guess I will “Ride the Dente” with Hocevar Sunday. I just hope I do not get bucked off. Speed is not going to be a problem for Hocevar. He will not be afraid to cut the dog-leg and cut-off his competition to gain track position. Can he bring the No. 77 car home in one piece? If he can, it will likely result in a top-10 finish. We saw Josh Berry come out of nowhere to win this race from the 7th starting position last year. Hocevar could do the same thing Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($6,400): Gibbs is way underpriced this week. I know his stats at Phoenix are not that good, but a Joe Gibbs Racing driver for $6,400? Sign me up. Gibbs said during practice that he was working with Denny Hamlin to improve at Phoenix. I think it is working. Gibbs posted the 6th fastest speed in practice, with the 8th fastest long run speed. Gibbs was just too fast this weekend to fade from the 14th starting position.
TODD GILLIALAND ($5,700): I really do not like playing one driver in both lineups, but I really like Gilliland from the 30th starting position. Gilliland doesn’t always have speed, but he is one of the smartest young drivers in the field. He knows how to stay out of trouble and slowly move through the field. He should be in the winning lineup again at Phoenix.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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