The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Pocono Raceway the second consecutive race on a large intermediate track. The race at Pocono is an important one for the Cup Series because there are four “wild-card races” (Navy Base Coronado, Sonoma, Atlanta and the return to Chicagoland) coming up on the schedule. The Toyota’s have had the speed, but they came back to the pack a bit last week in Michigan. It still turned into “The Denny Hamlin Show” at the end. Hopefully that No. 11 car does not stink up the show this weekend in the Pocono Mountains. The Great American Getway 400 can be seen Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR POCONO
Pocono Raceway is a 2.5-mile, flat, triangle-shaped track. The three corners are completely different, so a team that hits the setup in one corner may be completely off in another corner. Finding the perfect balance for the car to turn in each corner is the secret to success at Pocono.
The best way to handicap the race at Pocono Raceway is to look at the results from the previous races at Pocono and the races on the large intermediate tracks this year. The drivers who have a history of running well at the Tricky Triangle and have been fast on the large intermediate tracks this year should run up front Sunday afternoon.
Here are the stats from the races on the intermediate tracks this year and the stats from the previous three races at Pocono Raceway, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule Saturday at Pocono Raceway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Great American Getaway 400. Pocono is a 2.5-mile track, so most of the teams did not make a long run in practice.
I looked at how the practice speeds translated into race speed at Pocono last year. Four of the drivers who posted top-10 speed in practice were able to finish the race in the top-10 (Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney).
Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and William Byron ran the most laps in practice last year. Briscoe won the race, Hamlin finished 2nd, Blaney finished 3rd and Byron ran up front for most of the race until he had a pit road penalty. This may be a good race to look at the drivers who ran the most laps, instead of who had the most speed in practice. If the team remains on the track, they must like their car.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Pocono Raceway….
* Brad Keselowski had engine issues in qualifying, so he will start from the back
* Bubba Wallace hit the wall in qualifying, so he will start in the back.
STRATEGY FOR POCONO
The race Sunday is scheduled for 160 laps (400 miles). That means there are 40 points available for leading laps and 72 points available for fastest laps (112 dominator points). The trend in the last three races at Pocono is for one driver to lead roughly 44 laps and score 22 fastest laps (20.9 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 32 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (16.1 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 20 laps and scores 20 fastest laps (14 dominator points) and a fourth driver leads roughly 20 laps and scores 12 fastest laps (10.4 dominator points). The dominator points get spread out at Pocono Raceway so I plan to pick as many drivers as possible who can run in the top 10. Hopefully we will get lucky and two or three of these drivers will be dominators and help us win our contests Sunday.
WINNING LINEUPS AT POCONO (2022-2025)
The four drivers who have been the best picks for your DFS lineups at Pocono have been Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. They have shown up in half of the winning lineups in the Gen-7 car era at Pocono. Hamlin, Reddick and Elliott have also shown up in the most winning lineups on the large intermediate tracks this year. It may be a good idea to build your DFS lineups around these drivers this week.
The best value picks in your DFS Contests at Pocono have been Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones. They have shown up in the winning lineup in half of the races in Pocono too. Jones has a streak of three races in the winning lineup going (finished 13th at Charlotte, 11th at Nashville and 2nd in Michigan). Do not forget about these two drivers Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
I am going to attack the Place Differential Points in my Cash Contest lineup. Denny Hamlin has a fast car, but the teams run this race like a road course. Fuel strategy could let someone stay out and steal dominator points from Hamlin…. The driver I like the most is TYLER REDDICK ($10,300). He starts 16th and his car is fast enough to score dominator points and place differential points…. Chase Elliott ($9,200) did not set the track on fire in practice and he qualified 23rd. His teammates were all fast, so I expect Elliott to be fine in the race and score 10-12 place differential points… Ross Chastain ($8,100) is a tough driver to trust, but he posted the 9th fastest speed in practice. Chastain has the speed to move up into the top-12 Sunday…. Brad Keselowski ($7,900) liked his car after practice and then the No. 6 team had an engine issue in practice. They will fix Keselowski up and he should score 20+ place differential points from the 37th starting position…. Bubba Wallace ($8,000) hit the wall when he got into the oil from Keselowski’s car during qualifying. Now he will start dead last Sunday. Wallace should score 20+ place differential points Sunday… I will take a chance with Austin Dillon ($5,800) Sunday. He understands fuel strategy and Dillon should move up 8-10 spots if he simply stays out of trouble Sunday.
* You can use Denny Hamlin ($11,000) over Tyler Reddick if you want to go after dominator points. I think both drivers will work out well, but Reddick should be the safer play.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
I know Denny Hamlin ($11,000) is going to be the highest owned driver on the slate, but he also has the best chance to destroy the field Sunday. I will pivot to Kyle Larson ($10,500) in a few lineups, but I will play Hamlin in this one… I expect some people will fade Carson Hocevar ($8,700) because he hit the wall in practice and “The Hurricane” will start in the back. I am not worried about Hocevar. He will pass a lot of cars and has a good chance to finish up front at Pocono… This lineup has a lot of chalk, so I need a contrarian driver. Most people do not like playing Joey Logano ($8,300). He has been showing some improvement lately and his car looked fast in practice. I will take a chance with Logano at Pocono… I just cannot fade Bubba Wallace ($8,000) and Brad Keselowski ($7,900) when they start on the back row. They will be very popular, but their chances of ending up in the winning lineup are very high… My punt play will be Riley Herbst ($6,000). He is having his best season in the Cup Series because the Toyota’s have had a speed advantage this year. Herbst has found his way to a few winning lineups this year. I think he can do it again Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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