The NASCAR Cup Series makes the long trip from Mexico City to the Pocono Mountains this weekend. The race at the “Tricky Triangle” is just another “Wild Card Race” on the summer schedule. The Cup Series has three road course races, a Superspeedway and the race this week at Pocono over the next month. These “wild card races” could really shake up the Point Standings and they could be an opportunity to win some money in our DFS Contests. These races tend to be a bit more unpredictable, so the people who study the stats and check out what the teams are saying about their cars in the media and on social media (I do this for you) should have the advantage over the next month. The Great American Getaway 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR POCONO
Pocono Raceway is a 2.5-mile, flat, triangle-shaped track. The three corners are completely different, so a team that hits the setup in one corner may be completely off in another corner. Finding the perfect balance for the car to turn in each corner is the secret to success at Pocono.
The best way to handicap the race at Pocono Raceway is to look at the results from the previous races at Pocono and the races on the large intermediate tracks this year. The drivers who have a history of running well at the Tricky Triangle and have been fast on the large intermediate tracks this year should run up front Sunday afternoon.
Here are the stats from the races on the intermediate tracks this year and the stats from the previous three races at Pocono Raceway, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal practice session this week. The teams were broken down into two groups based on their performance from the race in Mexico. Each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for the race Sunday. Pocono is a large 2.5-mile track so most of the teams did not have time to make a long-run in practice. We will have to focus our picks on the single-lap speeds and qualifying position for Sunday’s race. Eight of the top-10 finishing drivers at Pocono last year started in the top-11. So track position is important in this race.
Here are the lap times from Saturdays practice session at Pocono Raceway….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 160 laps (400 miles). That means there are 40 points available for leading laps and 72 points available for fastest laps (112 dominator points). The trend in the last three races at Pocono is for one driver to lead roughly 44 laps and score 22 fastest laps (20.9 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 32 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (16.1 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 20 laps and scores 20 fastest laps (14 dominator points) and a fourth driver leads roughly 20 laps and scores 12 fastest laps (10.4 dominator points). The dominator points get spread out at Pocono Raceway so I plan to pick as many drivers as possible who can run in the top 10. Hopefully we will get lucky and two or three of these drivers will be dominators and help us win our contests Sunday.
Qualifying was crazy with many drivers having problems. That means there are a lot of good cars who are starting in the back. I am playing my Cash Contest lineup like a Superspeedway. I am stacking the lineup with good cars that start in the back and hop they can score a lot of place differential points.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
* I am simply playing the best drivers from the back.
** I would play many lineups like this and switch KYLE LARSON, RYAN BLANEY, BRAD KESELOWSKI and RICKY STENHOUSE JR. into some lineups too.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): Some people call Pocono the Trciky Triangle. It never tricked Hamlin though. He has been good at this track ever since his rookie season. Hamlin has seven wins at Pocono (It would be eight but his car was disqualified in 2022). He has also led the most laps and he has the best driver ranking. The No. 11 car will have a good chance to lead some laps and win the race Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,400): Byron dominated the last two races on large intermediate tracks and he has a history of running well at Pocono. Byron led 283 laps last month at Charlotte and 98 laps two weeks ago in Michigan. The No. 24 team showed up with the fastest car Saturday, but Byron wrecked it in qualifying. Now he will start in the back. I am sure the backup car will be close to what the primary car had for speed. Byron should be the highest scoring driver in DFS Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,600): Pocono ranks as one of the best tracks for Keselowski. He likes the intermediate tracks where the draft comes into play. Keselowski led 20 laps, scored 11 Stage Points and finished 7th at Pocono last year. He is also coming off a 5th-place finish at Charlotte and a 10th-place finish in Michigan. Keselowski posted the fastest speed in his group for practice Saturday. He should be a good pick for our DFS lineups Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,500): Pocono is a weird track and Wallace is a weird driver. Of course they are a perfect match. Wallace finished 5th, 8th, 11th and 10th in his last four races at Pocono Raceway. His owner (Denny Hamlin) is the best driver at Pocono, so of course the 23X1 Racing cars are going to be good at the Tricky Triangle. Wallace had the second-fastest speed in practice, but his car would not fire in qualifying. Now he starts in the back with a great chance to finish in the top-10.
JOSH BERRY ($6,900): Berry made one lap in practice and then went to the garage. The team set the car up too low and it bottomed out while running over the bump in the tunnel-turn. The diffuser under the car was bent, so the team had to fix it. Berry will start in the back and I truck the Wood Brothers and Team Penske to get the car fast enough to finish inside the top-20.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,600):I will take a chance with Gilliland as my “punt play” for the Tournament Contest lineup. The Front Row Motorsports cars typically perform well at tracks where the draft comes into play. Gilliland starts 32nd. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Pocono is 24th. He also scored 44 DK Points at Charlotte, 43 DK Points at Kansas and 54 DK Points at Texas. Gilliland has scored well on the large intermediate tracks so I will play him Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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