The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Richmond Raceway this weekend for a Saturday night short track race. This will be the second race for the Cup Series on a short, flat track in the last two weeks. The race at Iowa was horrible since the teams decided to play the fuel mileage game and the cars could not pass the leader. It should be different in Richmond. The tires wear-out more quickly and the drivers are willing to move their competitors in order to capture the checkered flag (just ask Austin Dillon). There is a lot on the line with two races left in the regular season. Hopefully we get a traditional action packed race again at Richmond Raceway this weekend. The Cook Out 400 can be seen Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA.
DFS STATS FOR RICHMOND
Richmond Raceway is .75-mile, flat track with an old surface. It is almost the same size, shape and banking as Iowa Speedway. The tires wear-out quickly at Richmond so this allows the race to become a chess match between crew chiefs. Some drivers will pit early to get the fresh rubber to gain some track position. Other drivers will stay out and hope for a caution. This race should be a lot better than the fuel mileage crap we had in Iowa a few weeks ago.
So, how do we handicap the Cook Out 400? We have a lot of data to work with from Richmond. The Cup Series competed at Richmond twice a year in the previous seasons. I will use the data from the last six races at Richmond in the Gen-7 car and add in the stats from the races at Phoenix, Nashville and Iowa this year. This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at Richmond and have had speed on the flat, oval tracks this year.
Here are the stats from the races at Richmond in the Gen-7 car and the races at Phoenix, Nashville and Iowa this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR broke the teams into two groups based on the metrics from the race at Watkins Glen last week. Each group was given 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Cook Out 400. NASCAR brought a softer tire to the track this week and the drivers had different strategies in practice. Some drivers went slower on their first 10-laps to save the tire over the long run. Other drivers had the pedal to the medal from the get go and wanted to see how the tire would wear over a long run. The practices times are skewed because of the different strategies, so I am not sure we will learn much from practice Friday. The temps are supposed to be a lot cooled Saturday night and that will change the practice speeds too. It doesn’t hurt to at least look at the speeds though.
Here are the speeds from Friday’s practice at Richmond Raceway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Richmond is scheduled for 400 laps (300 miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (280 dominator points). The trend at Richmond in the Gen-7 car is for three drivers to dominate the race. The first dominator leads roughly 116 laps and scores 32 fastest laps (43.4 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 100 laps and scores 58 fastest laps (51.1 dominator points). The third dominator leads roughly 82 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (39.4 dominator points). We need to pay up for the drivers who we think can lead the most laps Saturday night. We will not need much from the other three drivers in our lineup score, if we are able to hit on the top-three dominators and the 134 dominator points that they are projected to score.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): This is a home game for Hamlin and he always runs well in Virginia. Hamlin has finished 1st or 2nd in six of his last eight starts in Richmond. He won the race at Richmond last year. Hamlin posted the fastest speed in his group in practice and qualified 4th for the race. Hamlin will have a good chance to go back to Victory Lane at his home track Saturday night.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($9,200): The No. 6 car was one of the best a few weeks ago in Iowa. Keselowski qualified 5th, led 68 laps and finished 3rd in the Hawkeye State. He finished three of his last four races at Richmond in the top-10, so this is a good track for Keselowski. He desperately needs a win to make the playoffs, so I expect the No. 6 team to be aggressive with their pit strategy to get Keselowski to the front of the field with a chance to win the race Saturday night.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,500): Busch missed the playoffs last year and he is going to do it again this year if he cannot figure out a way to win Saturday night in Richmond or next week at Daytona. The good news is that Busch leads the Cup Series with wins at Richmond. The No. 8 car posted the fastest speed in practice and it was the fastest on the 5-lap, 10-lap, 15-lap, 20-lap and 25-lap speed charts. Busch just screwed up qualifying. His car is fast enough to move up through the field Saturday night.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,500): Wallace “should” be good Saturday night. He qualified 15th and finished 6th two weeks ago in Iowa. Wallace also started 8th and finished 4th in the last race at Richmond. Wallace posted the 3rd-fastest speed in his group in practice and the No. 23 car qualified 7th for the race. Wallace has the speed and track position to score well Saturday night.
RYAN PREECE ($7,600): Brad Keselowski wasn’t the only RFK Racing driver to run well two weeks ago in Iowa. Preece started way back in 33rd-place and finished 5th in the Hawkeye State. Typically, I would start a driver like Preece from the pole in Cash Contests, but it is very difficult to pass the leader in the Gen-7 car. Preece should lead most of the laps in Stage 1.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($6,200): Nemechek is one of my favorite plays from the back Saturday night. The Toyota’s typically run well at Richmond. Nemechek posted the 2nd-fastest speed in practice. He should score a lot of place differential points from the 34th starting position Saturday night.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): I am using Hamlin in both lineups Saturday night. He is just too consistent to fade at his home track. You can pivot to Christopher Bell if you want to save some salary and be a bit more contrarian (I will do that in some of my lineups), but the No. 11 car is my pick to win at Richmond.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,400): Byron has been one of the best drivers on the flat tracks this year. Byron finished 6th at Phoenix, 5th at Nashville and won the race in Iowa. He has also averaged 75 laps led in those three races. The No. 24 car has speed again this weekend, so I will use Byron as one of my dominators Saturday night.
RYAN PREECE ($7,600): Can Preece stay up front? The most similar track to Richmond is Iowa. Preece finished 5th at Iowa, so the answer should be yes. Also, I will trust the Gen-7 car to do its thing and aero-block any driver who tries to pass Preece for the lead.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,500): I am not playing Wallace in both lineups because I think he is a great pick to win. I am playing him because he is the best value in the field for the price. Wallace should have been priced in the $8K range. I will take the discount and hope Wallace finishes in the top-five, like he did last year at Richmond.
AUSTIN DILLON ($7,300): Dillon is not very good at many tracks, but he is good on the short, flat tracks. Dillon won the last race at Richmond by driving through Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. The No. 3 car had a lot of speed, despite his reckless driving at the end of the race. Dillon also finished 10th a few weeks ago in Iowa. I do not trust Dillon at many tracks, but I do at Richmond.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($6,200): I really do not like the drivers priced below Nemechek. I wish I could take a chance with Erik Jones, but I do not have the salary. I will have Ty Dillon in a few lineups, but I will use Nemechek in this one.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
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