The NASCAR Cup Series will stay in California for another road course race when they travel to Sonoma Raceway. This track is completely different from what we had last week at the best. The race at Navy Base Coronado was a new track and the teams had no idea what to expect. That will not be the case in NorCal. The teams have plenty of data for the race at Sonoma and so do we for our DFS lineups. This should be a much easier race to predict. The Toyota / Save Mart 350 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT (Yes, the Cup Series moves from Prime Video to TNT this week, so make sure you are on the correct channel).
DFS STATS FOR SONOMA
The Cup Series has had three races on road courses this year (COTA, Watkins Glen and Navy Base Coronado). Sonoma Raceway is different from those tracks, but we can still use the stats from those races to figure out who the best drivers on the road courses has been this year. I will combine the stats with those three races with the stats from the last three races at Sonoma Raceway to show who has been good on the road courses and who has been good in wine country.
Here are the stats from the races on the road course races this year and the stats from the last three races at Sonoma, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series was back to their normal schedule this week at Sonoma Raceway. The teams were broken down into two groups. Each group was allowed 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Sonoma is a 1.99-mile track with 12 turns. Some teams made some long runs in practice, but we will likely have to focus on the single-lap speed chart and the 5-lap speed chart for our picks this weekend.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Sonoma Raceway….
STRATEGY FOR SONOMA
The race Sunday is scheduled for 110 laps (219 miles). That means there are 27.5 points available for leading laps and 49.5 points available for fastest laps (77 dominator points). We need to decide what we are going to do with Shane van Gisbergen Sunday. He is priced at $14K, but SVG will be worth every penny if he does what he did last year in this race. SVG led 97 of the 110 laps and scored 86.8 DraftKings Points. SVG has been in 15 road course races in the Cup Series. He has been in the winning lineup in 9 of the 15 (60%). I plan to have some shares of SVG this week, but I will also try to beat him by stacking the other drivers who have had some success on the road courses.
WINNING LINEUPS AT SONOMA (2022 – 2025)
Wow, Shane van Gisbergen has only been in one winning lineup at Sonoma? Well, that is because he has only competed in one Cup Series race at Sonoma. Chris Buescher has been the other driver who has been a really good pick for your DFS Contests at Sonoma. It is surprising to see Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski show up in two winning lineups, but they both are poor at qualifying, but good at staying out of trouble and moving up in the race. The sweet spot for the drivers in the winning lineups have been between starting positions 5 – 19. We will likely have to load our lineups with drivers from that range again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
Shane van Gisbergen ($14,000) did not work out last week in San Diego, but his chances of completely dominating the field are much higher Sunday. SVG led 97 of the 110 laps at Sonoma last year. I expect a similar race from the No. 97 car this weekend…. Chris Buescher ($8,700) is the safest pick in Cash Contests. Buescher finished 3 of the 4 races in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma in the top-4. Buescher should score 7-8 place differential points and finish inside the top-10… Chase Elliott ($8,000) is another safe driver for your Cash Contest lineup. Elliott finished 3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma. I expect his top-10 streak to continue Sunday…. Babba Wallace ($6,900) crashed his No. 23 car in qualifying, so he will start in the back, in a back-up car. Wallace has improved a lot as a road course driver. He has a good chance to finish inside the top-15 Sunday… Brad Keselowski ($6,000) has been in the winning lineup in two of the four races at Sonoma using the Gen-7 car. He has a good chance to do it again this weekend. Keselowski starts 35th and should move up 15 spots…. Austin Dillon ($5,800) will be my punt play in the Cash Contest lineup. Dillon does not need to do much in order to return value for this lineup. He typically finishes around 20th at Sonoma. That should be enough.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Shane van Gisbergen is going to be the highest owned driver, so I am going to pivot to Kyle Larson ($9,500). SVG had problems last week and if something happens Sunday, Larson is the most likely driver to take over the race. Larson was fsstest in practice and he said he studied all off-season how SVG gets around Sonoma. I like the No. 5 car’s chances to dominate some of the race Sunday…. Chris Buescher ($8,700) is going to be popular, but he is what I consider “good chalk.” Buescher is a top-10 machine on the road courses. I will take the free points from the No. 17 car at Sonoma…. William Byron ($8,400) was the only driver I heard after practice say that he loved his car. Byron has a history of winning road course races whn his car has speed. Willy-B is a good play at Sonoma… AJ Allmendinger ($8,200) may have lower ownership than he should because he drives for Kaulig Racing and he burned many people at road course races. He is having one of his most consistent seasons on the road course tracks, so I will take a chance with Allmendinger Sunday… Chase Elliott ($8,000) was 19th fastest in practice and he qualified 18th for the race. I am hoping his lack of speed Saturday scare some people away. Elliott always runs better in the race than he does in practice…. I have Larson, Byron and Elliott, so why not take Alex Bowman ($6,500) for the Hendrick Motorsports stack. Bowman is one of the more underrated road course drivers in the Cup Series. He won the Chicago Street Course race last year and he has an average finishing position of 14.8 in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma. Bowman has the talent to finish inside the top-15 this weekend.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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