The Cup Series travels to Texas Motor Speedway this week for another race on a 1.5-mile track. The Cup Series raced on 1.5-mile tracks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway earlier this season. Now they will begin a stretch of three consecutive races on the 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter tracks (Kansas and Charlotte are next on the schedule). It is hard to trust the Gen-7 car to put on a good race, but the races at Texas have been better than most of the tracks on the schedule. I expect the race this weekend to be one of the more exciting races on the schedule. The Wurth 400 is scheduled for Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
DFS STATS FOR TEXAS
The Cup Series raced on the 1.5-mile tracks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway. Las Vegas is the most similar track to Texas Motor Speedway, so I will be using a lot of the stats from that race to help handicap the Wurth 400. I will sprinkle in some of the stats from Homestead and use the stats from the last two races at Texas to help predict which drivers have the best chance to run up front Sunday.
Here are the stats from the races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway this year and the race at Texas Motor Speedway in 2023 and 2024, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal practice schedule Saturday. The teams were broken up into two groups and each group had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. I will be focusing my picks on the drivers who had speed on the short and long-runs in practice and have a history of running well on the 1.5-mile tracks.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Texas Motor Speedway….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400.5 miles). That means there are 66.7 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.85 dominator points). The trend in the Cup Series at Texas Motor Speedway is for one driver to lead roughly 78 laps and score 44 fastest laps (39.3 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 40 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (22.6 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 38 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (28.5 dominator points). The last dominator leads roughly 36 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (17.1 dominator points). I want as many of these dominators as possible in my lineup Sunday. I plan to pay up for these drivers, even if it means I will have to build some “stars and scrubs lineups” for Sunday’s race.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,000): Larson is fast once again this weekend, but is he worth $11K? His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Texas Motor Speedway is 21st. Stats can be misleading though. Larson led 99 laps in 2023 before his engine blew up. Zane Smith took out Larson last year after he led 77 laps in the race. Larson has a great chance to be one of the top dominators Sunday. He just needs better luck in finishing the races. I will take a chance with the No. 5 car in the Wurth 400.
CHASE BRISCOE ($9,300): Martin Truex Jr. was inconsistent last year in the No. 19 car. I was hoping that Briscoe would be more consistent at finishing in the top-10, but so far his results are about the same as Truex. Briscoe finished 5 races 15th or worst this year and 4 races in the top-10. So, which Briscoe will we get this week? The No. 19 car posted the 9th-fastest speed in practice and he starts 22nd Sunday. Briscoe finished the last 3 races at Texas Motor Speedway in the top-10. His car is fast enough to finish up front Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,000): Elliott has been one of the best drivers at finishing in the top-10 on the 1.5-mile tracks. The knock on Elliott is that he does not win many of the races. Well, he went to Victory Lane last year at Texas Motor Speedway. Can he do it again this week? Elliott was not the fastest car in practice and he qualified 29th. He always races better than he practices, so I am not too worried about Elliott. He should score a lot of place differential points at Texas.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,600): Wallace is a great value for $8,600. He is the only driver to lead over 100 laps in the Gen-7 car at Texas Motor Speedway. Wallace finished 3rd at Texas in 2023 and 7th last year. Wallace posted the 13th-fastest speed in practice and qualified 9th for the race. Wallace finished 3rd in his last race on a 1.5-mile track (Homestead). I will play Wallace and hope he can do it again Sunday.
RYAN PREECE ($7,000): Preece had a good race last week but he will not be carrying over any momentum into the race at Texas Motor Speedway because his car failed post-race inspection at Talladega. The No. 60 team needs a bounce-back race Sunday. Preece finished 12th at Texas last year and he finished 3rd at Las Vegas earlier this year. I will play Preece and hope he can have a similar race Sunday.
TY DILLON ($5,100): I have been using Dillon as my “punt play” a lot this year and so far he has not let me down. Dillon is always priced at the bottom of the DK Driver List. He is averaging 23.5 DK Points per race. That is better than Kyle Busch, Josh Berry and Brad Keselowski (just to name a few drivers). I will play Dillon so I can pay up for the top dominators Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,800): Texas Motor Speedway is one of the best 1.5-mile tracks for Byron. He won this race in 2023 and he finished 3rd last year. Byron should be the safest pick in the field this week. He has finished the last 5 races on the 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter tracks (Texas, Kansas, Las Vegas and Charlotte) in the top-five. His No 24 Chevy has the speed to finish up front again Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK ($10,200): Reddick won in the Gen-7 car at Texas Motor Speedway in 2022 and he finished 4th last year. Can he go back to Victory Lane this week? I think he can. The most similar track to Texas Motor Speedway is Charlotte Motor Speedway. Reddick has finished 4 of his last 5 races at these two tracks in the top-five. He just knows how to get around Texas Motor Speedway, so I will use the No. 45 car as one of my dominators Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($8,000): Gibbs has been a tough driver to trust in your Fantasy NASCAR lineups, but he is getting better. Gibbs is usually at his best on the 1.5-mile tracks. If you watched practice, you heard Clint Bowyer screaming about how fast the No. 54 car is this weekend. Gibbs has the speed, but can he put together a mistake-free race? I will take a chance with Gibbs and hope his speed can get him to the front Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($7,700): Berry won the last race on a 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter track (Las Vegas Motor Speedway). I do not think it was a fluke. His stats at Texas Motor Speedway are not great, but his Wood Brothers Ford should is faster than the Stewart-Haas Racing Mustang he had last year. Berry posted the 6th-fastest speed in practice and the No. 21 car qualified 7th for the race. I will take a chance with Berry and hope he can run like he did in Las Vegas.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,600): Can we trust Keselowski Sunday? His 2025 season is off to a horrible start. A trip to Texas Motor Speedway “should be” what he needs to kick-start his season. Keselowski has finished 8 consecutive races at Texas Motor Speedway in the top-10. That is a huge sample size with a lot of positive results. Keselowski starts deep enough in the field that his upside is huge if he can extend his top-10 streak at Texas and he will not kill our lineup if he crashes.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($5,600): I will use Nemecheck as my “punt play” in my Tournament Contest lineup. He has wins in the Truck Series and Xfinity Series at Texas, so he knows how to get around this fast track. Nemechek started 30th and finished 20th at Las Vegas earlier this season. He should be able to have a similar race this week at Texas.
*My top dominators Sunday will be Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace (In that order). I will play some lineups with Larson and Byron as my top-two dominators. That is the safest way to play the dominators, but also the most popular.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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