The field of 16 drivers who will compete for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship have been set and nascar.com has a game to see who can correctly pick each driver for each round. The person who picks the best bracket wins $10K, second-place wins $5K and third-place wins $2,500. It is free to play, so why not take a chance and see if we can figure the 2024 playoffs out…
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STRATEGY FOR PLAYOFF GRID CHALLENGE
The winner of each race automatically advances to the next round of the playoffs (if the winner is a playoff driver). If the winner of the race is not a playoff driver, another driver will move to the next round on points.
The first thing we must do for each round is predict the winner of each race. Once we figure out which driver we think will win, we can simply advance that driver to the next round of the playoffs. The next step is to find the drivers we think can advance on points. I will use the stats from the previous races at the tracks and the races on similar tracks to predict how each driver will finish each race. There will be chaos in some races, so I will factor that into my picks too.
Here is how I predict each round of the playoffs will play out….
ROUND OF 16
Here is how I have the Round of 16 playing out. The four drivers eliminated are Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton
* The winner of each race get five bonus points
ATLANTA RACE WINNER: KYLE BUSCH
NASCAR loves chaos and they will get it at Atlanta. There has been a history of non-playoff drivers winning in the early rounds. That trend may continue Sunday. Kyle Busch finished 3rd by .004 seconds at Atlanta in February. He finished 2nd at Daytona two weeks ago and he won at Talladega last year. He will FINALLY get his win, but it will be a week too late. Many of the top drivers will have problems and this will really shake things up.
WATKINS GLEN RACE WINNER: KYLE LARSON
I have Kyle Larson in a hole after a wreck in Atlanta. It will be no problem for “Yung Money” when he goes to Victory Lane at Watkins Glen. This track has been his playground over the last three seasons. Larson won at Watkins Glen in 2021 and 2022. It is going to be tough to fight off Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell, but Larson should get the job done and win his second road course race of the season (He also won at Sonoma).
BRISTOL RACE WINNER: DENNY HAMLIN
Will NASCAR bring the same soft tire to “Thunder Valley: that they used March? Denny Hamlin mastered that tire and easily won the race. It really doesn’t matter though, because Hamlin has won the last two races at Bristol. I have him winning again and some of the top drivers earning enough points to advance. There should be a good battle between Daniel Suarez and Joey Logano for the final transfer spot. I have “My Amigo” pulling the upset and transferring to the Round of 12.
ROUND OF 12
The Round of 12 is the wildest in the playoffs because of the trips to Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. I have the playoffs drivers winning each race and Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez as the drivers who are eliminated.
* The winner of each race gets five bonus points
KANSAS RACE WINNER: KYLE LARSON
There have been four races on the 1.5-mile Intermediate tracks this year and Kyle Larson has won two of them (Las Vegas and Kansas). He probably would have won three out of the four, but he did not get a chance to compete in the Coca-Cola 600. I have Larson winning again and the cream rising to the top in this race. Most of the top drivers will earn enough points to make their trip to Talladega a bit less stressful.
TALLADEGA RACE WINNER: WILLIAM BYRON
I originally had Ryan Blaney penciled in for the win at Talladega but he finished 30th (Daytona 500), 20 (Talladega) and 29th (Daytona). I will pivot to William Byron who has been more consistent on the Superspeedways this year. Byron has finished five of his last six Superspeedway races (Daytona and Talladega) in the top-10. That includes a win in the Daytona 500 and a second-place finish in this race last year. I have Byron winning and some of the top drivers losing a lot of points in this race.
CHARLOTTE RACE WINNER: TYLER REDDICK
I had Tyler Reddick entering the race at the Charlotte Roval in a hole because he was not able to back up his win at Talladega and was involved in a wreck. The stress is off of Reddick when he wins the Charlotte Roval. It is not easy though. Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott will be racing him for the win in the final laps. I am not fan of the Roval, but it should be a good race.
ROUND OF 8
LAS VEGAS RACE WINNER: KYLE LARSON
Kyle Larson has been the best driver this year. He would have won the regular season championship if he did not miss the race at Charlotte. I have Larson as the first driver to punch his ticket to the Championship Four. He led the most laps, won every Stage and won went to Victory Lane in the last two races in Sin City. This is the easiest pick in the playoffs. I expect Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell to have good races at Las Vegas too.
HOMESTEAD RACE WINNER: KYLE LARSON
Did you think the No. 5 team was going to lie down and play dead after their win at Las Vegas? Kyle Larson continues to roll through the playoffs with another win at Homestead. He led the most laps, won both Stages and went to Victory Lane at Homestead in 2022. Last year he led the most laps again, won Stage 1, finished 3rd in Stage 2 and was caught up in accident. Larson should win this race if Denny Hamlin doesn’t wreck him on the way to the checkered flag. The win by Larson would mean two drivers advance to the Championship Four on points.
MARTINSVILLE RACE WINNER: CHASE ELLIOTT
The obvious pick for this race would be Denny Hamlin since he is so good at his home track. The race in April at Martinsville was completely dominated by Hendrick Motorsports. William Byron led 88 laps and won the race, Kyle Larson led 86 laps and finished 2nd and Chase Elliott led 64 laps and finished third. Any of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers would be good picks for this race, but Elliott’s pit crew ranks No. 1 this year and that will be the difference during a late race pit stop. I have Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell joining the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers in the Championship Four.
CHAMPIONSHIP FOUR
2024 NASCAR CUP SERIES CHAMPION: CHRISTOPHER BELL
We made it…. Who is going to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship? This is a winners takes all race. I know that a non-playoff driver could win the race, like Ross Chastain did last year; but the odds suggest that one of the Championship Four drivers will be in Victory Lane at Phoenix.
The Cup Series has competed on the short, flat tracks the most in 2024. We have a lot of data to work with. There is one driver who has dominated this year on the tracks similar to Phoenix and that driver will be my champion in 2024.
CHRISTOPHER BELL has made the Championship Four every year that the Gen-7 car has competed in the Cup Series. Experience goes a long way in this race and Bell has it. He has also been awesome on the short, flat tracks this year. Bell won at Phoenix in March and he also had a win at New Hampshire (similar track to Phoenix). Bell finished 4th in Iowa, 6th in the first race at Richmond and 6th in the second race at Richmond. That is an average finishing position of 4.25 on the short, flat tracks. Bell also led 337 laps in these races. Bell is my pick to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
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