The Xfinity Series will join the Cup Series at Texas Motor Speedway this week. This is the second race in the first round of the Xfinity Series Playoffs. Justin Allgaier secured his spot in the Round of 8 with his win at Bristol last week. Will “Little Gator” be able to win again Saturday or will another driver be able to advance to the next round of the Xfinity Series Playoffs? It will be fun to see how it all plays out. The Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 can be seen Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
PRACTICE AT TEXAS
The Xfinity Series had a short practice session to shake down their cars for the race Saturday. Texas is a 1.5-mile intermediate track. The tires do not wear out as fast at Texas as they do at some of the other intermediate tracks, but we can still learn which drivers have long-run speed by looking at the 10-lap average speed chart. I will be focusing on that data for the picks this week.
Here are the lap times from the practice Saturday’s practice at the Texas Motor Speedway…
AVERAGE DFS POINTS ON SIMILAR TRACKS
Texas is a 1.5-mile intermediate track similar to Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. We can learn a lot by looking at the cars that had speed at the intermediate tracks in 2023. I will use the data from those races, with the race at Kansas two weeks ago getting extra weight in the rankings. I will also add in the data from the race at Darlington to show which drivers have momentum on the intermediate tracks. Finally, I will use the data from the two races at Texas last year to add track history to the model.
Here are the average DraftKings Points from the races on the intermediate tracks (2023) and the races last year at Texas…
STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
The races at Texas tend to be a three-dominator race. The main dominator typically leads 84 laps and scores 40 fastest laps (39 dominator points), another driver leads 60 laps and scores 32 fastest laps (29.4 dominator points) and the third driver leads 34 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (16.6 dominator points). It will be important to pay up for the drivers we think can lead the most laps Saturday. We will reach the pay-line if we are able to score the 85 bonus points that these drivers are expected to score.
The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Justin Allgaier, Trevor Bayne, Cole Custer and John H. Nemechek
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include John H. Nemechek, Sheldon Creed, Daniel Hemric, Sammy Smith, Brett Moffitt, Jeb Burton, Layne Riggs and Jeffrey Earnhardt
DRIVER RANKINGS FOR TEXAS
CORE DRIVERS FOR TEXAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($11,300), JUSTIN ALLGAIER ($11,000), COLE CUSTER ($10,700), AUSTIN HILL ($10,500), TREVOR BAYNE ($10,200), JOSH BERRY ($10,000), SHELDON CREED ($9,100), CHANDLER SMITH ($9,000)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: DANIEL HEMRIC ($8,800), PARKER KLIGERMAN ($8,600), BRETT MOFFITT ($8,100), RYAN SIEG ($7,900), LAYNE RIGGS ($7,700), JEB BURTON ($7,500), PARKER RETZLAFF ($7,200), KAZ GRALA ($7,000), ANTHONY ALFREDO ($6,500), J.J. YELEY ($6,400)
PUNT PLAYS: JOE GRAF JR. ($5,900), BRENNAN POOLE ($5,500), JOSH WILLIAMS ($5,400), RYAN ELLIS ($5,300), JEFFREY EARNHARDT ($5,200), JOEY GASE ($5,100)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DRIVER GROUP GAME PICKS
Good Luck Today!
Follow me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR