Best Bets for Atlanta

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The Daytona 500 is finally complete and we got to see William Byron hoist the Harley J. Earl Trophy at 16-1 odds. The drivers listed at 12-1 to 16-1 odds won 42% of the races last year. That was most wins by drivers in that range in over 20 years in the Cup Series (That stats comes from my friend Micah Roberts from Stations Casino in Las Vegas). The 2024 season is starting in the same direction. It is early, but I will be keeping an eye out on what the average odds are of the drivers who win the races this year.

“Close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades.” That is what we were last week… close. Joey Logano ran most of the race up front and it looked like we had a winner at 14-1 odds. He wrecked with my Brad Keselowski bet at 12-1 odd and sank that ticket. I thought I was going to strike gold with Ross Chastain at 25-1 odds, but he just missed pulling off another “Hail Melon” to win the Daytona 500. I did not have any luck this week. Hopefully the Racing Gods are better to us in Atlanta.

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR ATLANTA

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

 

STRATEGY FOR ATLANTA

The sportsbooks know that winning the Atlanta comes down to a driver being in the right place at the right time and having a bit of luck. That is why we get some longer odds with some of the top drivers. We need to take advantage of this. The longer odds means that we do not need to bet a lot, to win a lot. Diversify your picks this week and bet on many drivers. We can still make a profit because the payout is larger than what it is at the more predictable tracks. (The same strategy as last week at Daytona)

 

BETTING CARD FOR ATLANTA

* I am using a $100 weekly bankroll for my picks this year. The “Best Bets” below are how I recommend wagering this week if you were to bet $100 on each race. You can adjust it to fit your bankroll.

** Shop around for the best odds. I was able to get Chase Elliott at +1300 at BET MGM, Ross Chastain at +2200 at Bet MGM, Daniel Suarez at +3500 at Bet MGM and Erik Jones at +3000 at Bet MGM.

 

JOEY LOGANO (10-1): Logano completely dominated this race last year. He won the pole, led 140 laps, won Stage 1, finished second in Stage 2 and went to Victory Lane. He also looked great last week at Daytona when he won the pole and was the only driver to have an average running position in the top-10. Logano is going to be tough to beat Sunday.

RYAN BLANEY (11-1): Blaney has to be happy to be leaving Daytona. He had too pretty hard wrecks (one in the Duel Race and one in the Daytona 500). He had a fast car in both races and now he gets another chance on a Superspeedway. Blaney has the third-best average finishing position on the new track at Atlanta. He has also started three of the four races in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta in the top-three. The Ambetter Health 400 will be a good race for Blaney to get back to Victory Lane.

CHASE ELLIOTT (12-1): I debated between William Byron and Chase Elliott for this pick. Byron has the better stats, but Elliott is more desperate for a win. Atlanta Motor Speedway is the home track for Elliott. He won at the newly paved track in 2022 and he has the best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta (6.7). I will take a chance with Elliott to break his 36-race winless streak (His last win was on a Superspeedway at Talladega).

ROSS CHASTAIN (20-1): Chastain was awesome at Atlanta in 2022. He finished second in both races and averaged 37 laps led per race. He had some bad luck last year, but his near win at Daytona shows that Chastain has the car to win at Atlanta. I looked back at the odds for Chastain in this race last year. He was 14-1 to win. Now we get him at 20-1. I will take it.

ERIK JONES (22-1): The new Toyota Camry XSE races well on the Superspeedways. Jones finished eighth in the Daytona 500 and now he gets to race at one of his better tracks. Jones finished fourth in this race last year, eighth in the July race in 2022 and 11th in the March race in 2022. His 9.3 average finishing position is second-best behind Chase Elliott on the new surface at Atlanta. Adding Jones to the betting card this week gives me the drivers with the top-three average finishing positions in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta (1. Chase Elliot, 2. Erik Jones and 3. Ryan Blaney).

DANIEL SUAREZ (30-1): If you ever want to bet on Suarez to win a race, this is the week to do it. Atlanta Motor Speedway has been the best track for Suarez in the Gen-7 car. He finished second in the last race at Atlanta and fourth and sixth in the two races in 2022. His 10.3 average finishing position on the new track at Atlanta is fifth-best in the Cup Series. 30-1 odds is pretty good for “My Amigo” Sunday.

COREY LAJOIE (40-1): LaJoie nearly won at Atlanta in 2022. He was leading the race in the final laps when the caution flag came out. Lajoie said on his podcast that Atlanta is one of his favorite tracks and one of the best chances for his Spire Motorsports team to win a race. LaJoie finished fourth in the Daytona 500. 40-1 odds on LaJoie at his best track are just too good to pass up.

 

Good luck Sunday!

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