The Best Bets for the Cup Series started off great in 2021. We hit on Michael McDowell at 66-1 odds in the Daytona 500 and we hit again last week on AJ Allmendinger at 20-1 odds. I had a $20 ticket on Allmendinger so I am still playing with house money through 24 races. I plan to find another winner in the Firekeepers Casino 400.
My strategy this week will be to bet three drivers who are likely to run up front and have a great chance to win the race and three drivers who are in a “must win” situation and are likely to use pit strategy to steal a victory. I will be pulling for the long-shots, but will be happy if one of the favorite wins as well.
DraftKings Odds for Michigan
* The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Kyle Larson you will win $3.
Here are my “Best Bets” for the race at the Brickyard…
Kyle Busch (6-1): I will bet $20 on Kyle Busch to win the Firekeepers Casino 400. Busch has the best average finishing position on the intermediate tracks using the 550 HP aero package (4th place average finishing position). He has also finished his last 6 races at Michigan in the top-6. There is a great chance that Kyle will win the race Sunday. I am just hoping it is Busch and not Larson.
Chase Elliott (8-1): I will bet $20 on Chase Elliott to win the race Sunday. We all know that Hendrick Motorsports will have a lot of speed Sunday, so stacking your betting portfolio with drivers from HMS is not a bad strategy. Elliott will start on the front row at Michigan so track position will not be an issue for the No. 9 car. Elliott has three runner-up finishes at Michigan on his resume. I just need Elliott to move up one more spot.
William Byron (14-1): I will bet $10 on William Byron to win at Michigan. The No. 24 team slowed down during the summer after their hot start to the season. This had a lot to do with the lack of intermediate tracks on the schedule in the last three months. Byron won in the 550 HP aero package at Homestead and he has led laps in four of the six races on intermediate tracks this season. He is no stranger to running up front. I will take a Hendrick Motorsports driver at 14-1 odds at Michigan.
Tyler Reddick (30-1): I will bet $10 on Tyler Reddick to win the race Sunday. Reddick is the last driver above the playoff cutline but that does not mean he is in a safe position. If any driver below him wins a race, Reddick is on the outside looking in. The No. 8 team will gamble this week with their pit strategy to get Reddick to the front. He has the speed to win the race. He just needs the track position to get the job done.
Austin Dillon (45-1): I will bet $10 on Austin Dillon to win at Michigan. Dillon is right below his teammate (Tyler Reddick) in the playoff standings. The No. 3 team is also in a near “must win” situation. Dillon has snuck his way into Victory Lane before. Dillon surprised everyone by winning the race at Texas last year and wining the Coca-Cola 600 in 2017. I would not be surprised if he found Victory Lane again Sunday.
Long-Shot Special: My Long-Shot Special this week is Matt DiBenedetto (50-1). I will bet $10 on DiBenedetto to win Sunday. Matty-D has been on a hot streak ever since the Wood Brothers notified him that he will need to seek another ride in 2022. DiBenedetto finished 10th at Road America, 9th at Atlanta, 11th at New Hampshire, 11th at Watkins Glen and 5th last week at Indianapolis. He also finished 7th in his last race at Michigan. The No. 21 team is in a “must win” situation so they will gamble with pit strategy to try and sneak into Victory Lane Sunday.
I will wager $80 this week and if any of the drivers win the race, I will win some cash. Be sure to shop around at different sites or Casino’s because you can often find better odds. I noticed that my local casino regularly screws up the NASCAR odds and I get better deals than what DraftKings offers.
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