The NASCAR Cup Series returns Sunday after a week off. Were any of the teams able to find some speed during the bye-week? We will find out Sunday night. The tracks are starting to heat up and so are the battles for a playoff spot. We can expect some of the teams outside the playoff cut-line to be more desperate for a win and gamble with pit strategy. This could allow a driver with longer odds to make it to Victory Lane in the final 10 races. I do not expect that to happen at Nashville though.
The races on the intermediate tracks have been dominated by the drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. The drivers from those teams have also dominated the two Cup Series races at Nashville. It is going to be tough to keep the drivers from JGR and HMS out of Victory Lane Sunday. We have to add some of the drivers from these two teams to our betting card this week, but there are a few drivers with longer odds who I like as well.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR NASHVILLE
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on KYLE LARSON at 5-1 odds, you will win $5.
Here are my bets for Nashville based on a $100 bankroll for the race….
* I bet just for fun. Winning $25 to $65 might not be fun if you are trying to strike it rich, but it gives you some action on the race and a good chance to win some cash.
KYLE LARSON (5-1): Shop around to see what kind of odds you can get with the No. 5 car Sunday because we have to include Larson on our betting card. He destroyed the field in the first race at Nashville. The No. 5 car led 264 of the 300 laps, won every Stage and went to Victory Lane. Larson has dominated every intermediate track race this year, but has not won all of them. He will be fast Sunday and has a great chance to win the guitar in Victory Lane. Larson is my insurance policy to get my money back if he wins.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (7-1): Truex has finished 22nd in both of his races at Nashville, so why bet him at only 7-1 odds? Truex dominated this race last year. He led 82 of the 300 laps, won both Stages but the No. 19 car decided to pit with only four laps left in the race (dumb decision). Truex lost all of his track position and finished 22nd. The most similar track to Nashville is Dover and Truex won that race earlier this season. He is going to be tough to beat Sunday night.
WILLIAM BYRON (8-1): I wanted to include Denny Hamlin on my betting slip, but I could not make it profitable to include him with William Byron. I had to choose between the No. 11 car and the No. 24. I decided to go with Byron. He dominated the race at Dover earlier this year. Byron led 193 of the 400 laps and finished fourth. That speed should translate into speed at Nashville. Byron has been the best driver at the tracks where the intermediate aero package has been used. I will bet on Byron and probably watch Hamlin go to Victory Lane (that is why they call it gambling).
ROSS CHASTAIN (11-1): Chastain has only won two races in his 167 race career in the Cup Series. Those odds (0.01% of his races he has won) do not scream, “BET ME!” I could have used Denny Hamlin in this spot, but I have a good feeling about Chastain this week. Nashville is the home track for Trackhouse Racing. Justin Marks said, “Winning at Nashville would mean everything to our team.” I am sure they will give Chastain the best chassis they have in their garage this week. He finished second and fifth in his two races at Nashville. The No. 1 car should be running up front at the end of the race Sunday.
KEVIN HARVICK (20-1): Harvick has been the best driver from Stewart-Haas Racing and he has been one of the best drivers for Ford this year. His odds are 20-1 because the sportsbooks do not believe the Fords can compete with Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. That has been true for most of the season, but the Fords found some speed on the intermediate track at Charlotte. Maybe they found some more speed during the off-week. Harvick finished fifth and 10th in his two races at Nashville. He just needs some luck with a late-race pit stop and the No. 4 car could be in Victory Lane Sunday night.
LONG SHOT BETS: ALEX BOWMAN (30-1): Bowman sits 16th in the point standings. He could sure use a win to secure a spot in the playoffs. Bowman has a history of coming out of nowhere to win a race. I will bet that happens Sunday night. We often see drivers win a race when the hood of their car matches the title sponsor of the race. It would not surprise me to see the Ally car in Victory Lane at the Ally 400. He is going to have the same setup as Kyle Larson and William Byron, but his odds pay 25-1 more money. I will place a few bucks on Bowman this week.
Good luck Sunday!
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