The NASCAR Cup Series will go short track racing on Easter night at Richmond Raceway. This is the second race of the season for the Cup Series using the new short track aero package (on a short, flat track). The teams used this package earlier this month at Phoenix. That race was dominated by the Toyota’s. Will the other manufacturers step up their game at Richmond? We will find out Sunday night at 7 p.m. on FOX.
I changed my betting strategy a few weeks ago and so far it has worked out well. I posted some drivers I liked before practice and qualifying and then updated the article with the picks I liked after the field has been set. We were able to hit with Denny Hamlin two weeks ago at Bristol and last week with William Byron at COTA. These races haven’t been hard to handicap after we see the cars on the track, so I will keep this format going for the Best Bets article.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR RICHMOND
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
BETTING STRATEGY FOR RICHMOND
I really like the Toyota’s this week, but I do not like their odds right now. The Toyota’s led 298 or the 312 laps using the current aero package at Phoenix earlier this month. They also led 199 of the 400 laps in the last race at Richmond. I will spend $50 of my $100 budget this week on four drivers I like with odds of +900 or longer. I will save the $50 I have left for the driver I like best after practice or maybe two drivers if there are two drivers who outpace the field and qualify up front.
The spring race has a habit of sending the favorites to Victory Lane. Kyle Larson won at 4-1 odds last year and Denny Hamlin won at 3-1 odds in 2022. I doubt we will see a driver outside of +1500 in Victory Lane Sunday night.
BETTING CARD FOR RICHMOND
KYLE LARSON (9-1): I will go ahead and bet Larson now at 9-1 odds. He won this race last year. The only reason why his odds are not lower is because he did not look great at Phoenix. I trust Hendrick Motorsports to take the data from Phoenix and be better this week. Larson finished 1st and 5th in the two spring races using the Gen-7 car at Richmond. His odds will drop like a rock if he posts a top-five speed in practice and qualifies up front.
WILLIAM BYRON (11-1): I will take Byron at 11-1 odds. Byron finished 21st and 24th at Richmond last year. Those stats are a bit misleading though and they are the reason for his odds this week. Byron qualified 3rd, led the most laps (117) won Stage 1, finished 3rd in Stage 2 and was caught up in a wreck while leading the race at Richmond last year. Byron had the best Chevy at Phoenix earlier this season. His odds will not stay at 11-1 if the No. 24 car has any speed in practice.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (13-1): Will this be the week when Keselowski ends his 104 race winless streak? I think so. Keselowski led the most laps (102) and finished 6th in the last race at Richmond. Everyone talks about the speed Christopher Bell had in the final Stage at Phoenix. Keselowski had the second-fastest green flag speed in the final Stage. The No. 6 car should have a good chance to go to Victory Lane if they can simply build on the speed that had at the end of the race at Phoenix.
TYLER REDDICK (15-1): I really like Reddick this week. He won the pole, won Stage 1, finished 3rd in Stage 2 and led 81 laps in the last race at Richmond. Reddick also won Stage 1, finished 2nd in Stage 2 and led the most laps at Phoenix earlier this year. That is a lot of dominating laps for a driver priced at 15-1 odds. I will bet Reddick to win now, because his odds will fall quickly if he wins the pole like he did last year.
* I will add a few more bets after qualifying this weekend.
Good luck Sunday!
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