The PGA Tour travels to Houston, Texas this week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Before I get into the picks for this tournament, I want to rant for a bit (sorry). I never thought LIV Golf would be a big deal for the PGA Tour. I figured the PGA Tour had enough talented golfers and enough iconic courses to maintain their product. That is not the case. The Valspar Championship last week was trash. Not only did most of the big name golfers miss the cut, the ones who made the weekend played like they didn’t care about the tournament (Yes, I am talking about you Justin Thomas). I am not really interested in watching tournaments with Paul Malnati, Chandler Phillips, Kevin Roy and Rico Hoey in the final groups. The Masters cannot get here fast enough. Now, onto the Houston Open…
The PGA Tour replaced the WGC Dell Match Play with the Houston Open. The Match Play Tournament was the PGA Tour’s answer to March Madness. I really liked that tournament, but I understand why they got rid of it. The PGA Tour could not get 64 top golfers to show up to play. Now they will tee it up at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston. Nine of the top-50 golfers in the World Golf Rankings will tee it up Thursday. That includes Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark. Hopefully this tournament is better than what we had last week at the Valspar Championship.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
Memorial Park Golf Club will be the host course for the Houston Open. It has been on the PGA Tour schedule for the past three seasons, so most of the field will be failure with the course layout.
Memorial Park Golf Club is a long par-71 course. It plays 7,412 yards in length and has three par-5’s and five par-3’s. Four of the par-4’s play over 490 yards and one of the par-3’s plays over 235 yards. The golfers will need to be long off the tee in order to score well in the Houston Open.
We have a small sample size for stats at the Houston Open, but the key to this tournament is the winds. We have had some rounds with winds over 20 MPH and others with winds 5-10 MPH. The wind really make this course play more difficult. We will have to check the forecast this week to see which tee times have the lowest winds.
Click here to see the course: Memorial Park Golf Club
KEY STATS FOR HOUSTON OPEN
– Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
– Shots Gained Approach (200+ Yards)
– Driving Distance
– Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)
– Strokes Gained Par 5s
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
*Wyndham Clark hurt his back in practice. I took him out of my DFS lineups and use Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris in his place.
CORE GOLFERS FOR THE PLAYERS
HOUSTON OPEN STRATEGY
They could call this tournament “Scottie and Friends.” Scottie Scheffler is red hot right now and is by far the best golfer in the tournament. He typically plays well in his home state of Texas, so I will have him in all Cash Contest lineups this week. The pricing this week allows us to pair Scheffler with some golfer in the low $7K price range to the low $6K price range who are in decent form.
My Tournament Contest strategy will also revolve around Scottie Scheffler. I plan to have the No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings in about 50% – 60% of my lineups. There are a few other high priced golfers (Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Keith Mitchell and Alex Noren) who I will take a chance with in the other 40% – 50% of the lineups.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER ($13,000): There is no need to try and be cute this week. Simply select Scheffler at the top of your Cash Contest lineup and move on. He has won two tough tournaments in a row and he has a 2-1 chance of the three-peat on Easter. I am not worried about his price at the Houston Open.
DOUG GHIM ($8,200): Ghim is having his best season on the PGA Tour. He has made his last six cuts on the PGA Tour and that includes five finishes in the top-16 in his last six starts. Ghim ranks No. 11 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 7 in SG Approach and No. 4 overall in the key stats. He is a good golfer to pair with Scottie Scheffler this week.
MACKENZIE HUGHES ($7,800): There is a lot to like about Hughes this week. He has made seven of his last eight cuts on the PGA Tour. That includes a 3rd-place finish last week, so the form is there. He also finished 16th, 29th and 7th in his three trips to Memorial Park, so the course history is there too. Hughes is a safe pick with a lot of upside this week. He is a good golfer for Cash and Tournament Contest lineups.
JOEL DAHMEN ($7,100): We have come to this??? I am playing Dahmen in Cash Contest lineups? Well, Dahmen finished 9th and 5th in the last two tournaments played at Memorial Park. He has some of the best course history in the field. He has also made four of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour, so the form is there too. Dahmen ranks No. 6 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 16 in SG Approach and No. 19 overall in the key stats. I will trust the numbers and play Dahmen in Texas.
MARK HUBBARB ($7,000): Hubbarb is a good Cash Contest player. He has made every cut on the PGA Tour this year (8 for 8), but he rarely finishes in the top-10 (He did finish 4th at Pebble Beach though). Hubbarb ranks 37th in the key stats this week. He probably will not finish at the top of the leaderboard, but Hubbarb should make the cut and score points in all four rounds this week. That is all we need from him in our Cash Contest lineup.
ANDREW NOVAK ($6,900): Novak is one of the most mispriced golfers in field, according to the stats. He ranks No. 10 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 5 in SG Approach, No. 10 in Scrambling and No 10 overall in the key stats. Novak has finished three of his last five tournaments in the top-10 and he finished 17th last week at the Valspar. The numbers are just too good to pass up with Novak this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER ($13,000): I do not think I need to spend too much time writing about Scheffler. He ranks No. 1 in almost every stat category (except putting) and No. 1 overall in the key stats. He has the best form and the fifth-best course history. This is his tournament to win Sunday.
KEITH MITCHELL ($9,200): I want to pair a golfer at the top of my lineup who can compete with Scottie Scheffler for the win Sunday. That golfer could be “Cashmere Keith Mitchell.” He is playing some of the best golf in his career right now. Mitchell ranks No. 2 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 2 in SG Approach, No. 1 in Ball-Striking, No. 1 in Scrambling and No. 2 (Behind Scottie Scheffler) in the key stats. I like Mitchell’s chances of contending for a win in Texas.
TAYLOR MOORE ($7,600): How about we take a golfer with some of the best chances of making the cut and pairing him with two studs like Scottie Scheffler and Keith Mitchell? That is what I will do with Moore. He has made every cut on the PGA Tour (8 for 8) and that includes a 12th-place finish last week. Moore ranks 14th in the key stats. He should make the cut and score well for our DFS lineups.
LUKE LIST ($7,500): The Houston Open is a good tournament for List. He plays well on the long courses with easy greens to read. He led the field in SG Tee-to-Green and Scrambling in this tournament in 2022. List is a bomber with a lot of upside. I will add him to the “List” this week.. LOL. (Sorry, I had to write it.)
JOSEPH BRAMLETT ($6,600): That stats love Bramlett this week and I like to listen to the stats. Bramlett ranks No. 23 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 26 in Scrambling and No. 29 overall in the key stats. Bramlett finished 9th in this tournament last year and he is coming off a 17th-place finish last week at the Valspar. $6,600 seems to be a good price for Bramlett in Texas.
DYLAN WU ($6,100): Wu is starting to heat up. He finished 24th in the Mexico Open, 19th at THE PLAYERS and 26th last week at the Valspar. Wu ranks No. 37 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 26 in SG Approach, No. 23 in Scrambling and No. 24 overall in the key stats. Not too bad for $6,100. All I need Wu to do is make the cut. He should be able to do it this week.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the third tournament in Segment 2. There are 11 tournaments in this segment (one more than usual). That includes the Masters and the PGA Championship. There are also two “signature events” in this segment (RBC Heritage and the Wells Fargo Championship). This is going to be a tough segment to navigate, so use your allocations wisely.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: WILL ZALATORIS (HOUSTON OPEN)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Maverick McNealy (45th), Justin Thomas (MC), Scottie Scheffler (Won), Russell Henley (41st), Tony Finau (13TH), Sahith Theegala (37th), Sam Burns (3rd), Max Homa (66th), Jason Day (MC), Taylor Montgomery (61st), Corey Conners (57th)
* I took out Sam Burns and replaced him with Will Zalatoris.
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: KEITH MITCHELL (HOUSTON OPEN)
One & Done picks used so far this season: Sam Burns (MC), Shane Lowry (19th), Matthew Fitzpatrick (MC), Eric Cole (MC), Nicolai Hojgaard (52nd), Adam Scott (19th), J.T. Poston (MC), Jordan Spieth (39th), Keegan Bradley (43rd), Andrew Putnam (47th), Russell Henley (4th), Sungae Im (5th), Alex Noran (Won), Beau Hossler (15TH), Min Woo Lee (6th), Adam Schenk (MC), Eric Cole (35TH), Sahith Theegala (Won)
BEST BETS HOUSTON OPEN
* You could simply bet your entire bankroll this week on Scottie Scheffler and I would have no problem with it. That is what you are going to have to do if you want to win any money this week. I will take a chance with a few other golfers and hope Scheffler finishes second.
WILL ZALATORIS (20-1)
KEITH MITCHELL (40-1)
DOUG GHIM (60-1)
LUKE LIST (70-1)
ANDREW NOVAK (110-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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