Best Bets for Texas

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The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend to compete at another 1.5-mile track. The cream typically rises to the top in these races and that is what happened when Kyle Larson dominated the race at Las Vegas last month. It is going to be tough to bet against the drivers from Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing Sunday, but I still expect to find some value picks for the race. The AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

I thought we had another winner last week with Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe all on the betting card. Each of these drivers ran up front and had a good chance to win the race, but the No. 24 car was the first to pit road in the final Stage and this allowed William Byron to win his third race of the season. I will do my best to find us another winner for the race at Texas.

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR TEXAS

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

 

 

BETTING STRATEGY FOR TEXAS

The Toyota’s and the cars from Hendrick Motorsports dominated the race at Las Vegas last month. They have also dominated the two races at Texas in the Gen-7 car. Kyle Larson, William Byron and Denny Hamlin are the favorites and they should be. The race Sunday should be a battle between these three drivers. Larson is the favorite at +450. I doubt his odds will change too much, even if he is fastest in practice. I will also take a “wait and see” approach with Hamlin. I do think there is some value with Byron early in the week, so I will bet him now at +700.

I doubt the winner will have odds greater than +1600 this week. That eliminates a lot of the drivers in the field. The Fords have not shown that they are ready to win a race where down-force is in play. Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott should have top-10 speed, but I doubt they can win as well. That leaves 8 drivers that I will either be betting this week or keeping my eye on in practice. The list includes Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace. 

 

 

BETTING CARD FOR TEXAS

 

WILLIAM BYRON (7-1): Byron has been to Victory Lane three times this year and he won the last race at Texas. I was shocked that Byron wasn’t listed in the top-three favorites to win this race. The only reason his odds are 7-1 right now is because Byron had the 18th-best average running position and finished 10th at Las Vegas earlier this year. Byron was heading to the front to dominate the race at Las Vegas when a HUGE trash back covered the front of his car and caused it to overheat. The team told Byron to baby it until the finish so the engine would not explode. Byron will not be taking it easy this week. I will bet him now before he goes out and dominates practice.

CHRISTOPHER BELL (12-1): I had to decide between MARTIN TRUEX JR. and Bell for this pick. Truex has not won on an intermediate track since the race at Darlington in 2021 (0-29). Bell did not have a good race at Las Vegas, but he won the race at Homestead last October and he finished 2nd at Kansas in the playoffs and 4th at Texas in the playoffs. When Bell is good, he is really good. I will bet that the No. 20 team will use the notes from the other Joe Gibbs Racing cars to have a fast car Sunday.

BUBBA WALLACE (16-1): Bubba is no stranger to Victory Lane at a 1.5-mile track. He won the race at Kansas in 2022 in the Gen-7 car and he dominated the last race at Texas. Wallace led 111 laps and finished 3rd at Texas Last year. You can replace Wallace with TY GIBBS (I like both drivers this week), but I like the momentum that Wallace has going into the race this week.

 

* I will add a few more bets after qualifying this weekend.

 

Good luck Sunday!

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