The NASCAR Cup Series is scheduled to race at Dover Motor Speedway Sunday. Hopefully, Mother Nature cooperates. Monday races at Dover seem to be common for the Cup Series. It would be nice if they can get the race in as scheduled. The Wurth 400 is scheduled for Sunday at 1 pm ET on FS1.
DOVER PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series had a 20-minute practice Saturday to shake down their cars for Saturday’s race. Most of the drivers were able to make some long runs, so we do have some data to work with this week. Qualifying was rained out, so the starting lineup will be set “per the rule book.” That puts Kyle Busch on the pole and some really fast cars in the middle of the field.
Here are the practice speeds for the Wurth 400 at Dover…
CUP SERIES STATS AT DOVER
It would have been nice if we could have used the data from the race at Bristol to help predict the drivers who would run up front at Dover, but NASCAR decided to cover one of their best tracks with dirt. I do think the data from the races at Las Vegas, Phoenix and Richmond will translate into speed at Dover. I am using that data, plus the driver rankings from the last two races at Dover to handicap the race Saturday.
Here are the driver’s average DFS Points at Las Vegas (2023), Phoenix (2023), Richmond (2023) and Dover (2022 & 2021)…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 400 laps. That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (280 total dominator points). The trend in the Cup Series race at Dover is for one driver to lead roughly 100 laps and score 36 fastest laps (41.2 dominator points). A second driver leads 80 laps and scores 38 fastest laps (37.1 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 80 laps and score 34 fastest laps (35.3 dominator points). A fourth driver leads around 70 laps and cores 42 fastest laps (36.4 Dominator Points). These four drivers will score 150 dominator points if this race plays out as scheduled. Our lineups will cash every contest we enter even if we pair them with the cheapest drivers. I plan to pay up for the drivers I think will lead the most laps this week.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Denny Hamlin,
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Ryan Preece, Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry, Austin Dillon, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR DOVER
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON ($11.5K / FD $14K), WILLIAM BYRON ($11.2K FD $13.5K), CHASE ELLIOTT ($10.8K FD $13K), DENNY HAMLIN ($10.5K FDK $11.5K), CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10.3K FD $12.5K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10K / FD $10.5K), KYLE BUSCH ($9.6K FD $9.5K), KEVIN HARVICK ($9.3K FD $12K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: JOEY LOGANO ($8.8K FD $8.2K), BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8.4K / FD $8K), BUBBA WALLACE ($8K FD $7.2K), JOSH BERRY ($7.5K FD $8.7K), TY GIBBS ($7.1K FD $6.8K), RYAN PREECE ($6.9K FD $6.2K), MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($6.6K FD $5.5K), AUSTIN DILLON ($6.3K FD $5.2K), AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6K FDK $4.8K)
PUNT PLAYS: TODD GILLILAND ($5.8K / FD $4.2K), JUSTIN HALEY ($5.6K FD $4.5K), COREY LAJOIE ($5K FD $3K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,500): There is a lot to like about Larson Sunday. He starts 18th, so he offers you a chance to score a lot of place differential points. The No. 5 car was second-fastest in practice and he has the best driver ranking at Dover, so he offers you a chance to score a lot of dominator points. “Yung Money” is a lock for all Cash Contest lineups.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,800): Dover has been Hendrick Motorsports playground for a long time. Elliott needs a win and I expect the No. 9 team put a lot of effort into this race to get Elliott to Victory Lane. He posted the fourth-fastest speed in practice, with the second-fast five-lap speed. Dover is a great track for Elliott, so he should score well from the No. 10 starting position.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,000): I thought about playing a dominator like Kyle Busch or Christopher Bell, but Truex is a safer pick. He starts 17th, so he offers your team a lot of place differential points. Truex has led laps in five of the last six races at Dover, so he should score some dominator points too. I will play it safe in the Cash Contest lineup and use the No. 19 car.
AUSTIN DILLON ($6,300): It took Dillon one lap to crash his car in practice. The No. 3 team will go to a backup car, but they were scheduled to start dead last anyways, so it is not a big deal. Dillon was one of the first drivers on the track in practice and there was no grip in the track. I am not going to hold his wreck against him. Dillon has an average finishing position of 15th in his last six races at Dover. He will score 49 DK Points if he can finish near his average.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,800): Gilliland is on a hot streak right now. He has finished 10th, 25th, 8th, 15th, 10th and 15th in his last six races. That is an average finishing position of 13.8. Gilliland starts 35th Sunday. I do not need him to finish 13th (he would score 52 DK Points if he did finish 13th). I just need Gilliland to finish around the 20th position to score 38 DK Points. That should be good enough in a Cash Contest lineup.
JUSTIN HALEY ($5,600): Can Haley repeat what he did at Dover last year? Haley led 18 laps and finished 11th at Dover last year. Haley also started 27th and finished eighth at Las Vegas earlier this season (the only other intermediate track race). I had to decide between Corey LaJoie and Haley for this pick. LaJoie looked faster in practice, but Haley has the stats on his side.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
KYLE LARSON ($11,500) & CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,800): Larson and Elliott are my top dominators and they both have a good chance to score a lot of place differential points. I am focusing my picks on what happened last year in the Gen-7 car at Dover and the speed from practice. Elliott won at Dover Last year and Larson finished third. They were both top-four on the speed chart in practice too. I have them picked to finish first and second, so I will play them in the Cash and the Single-Entry Tournament Contest.
KEVIN HARVICK ($9,300): Harvick did not look good in practice, but I am not worried about it because he never posts top speed in practice. Rodney Childers and Harvick know what they need to finish up front at Dover. Harvick has eight consecutive top-10 finishes at the track and that includes three races were he led over 200 laps. $9,300 is a good price for Harvick this week.
JOSH BERRY ($7,500): I want as many Hendrick Motorsports drivers as possible at Dover, so Berry gets a spot in the lineup. Bowman would have easily been priced in the $9K range. That means we are getting at least a $1,500 discount with Berry in the same car. He started 30th and finished second at Richmond last month. Berry also finished in the top-10 at Phoenix earlier this season. He will be a great pick from the 23rd starting position if he can finish anywhere near the top-10 Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,800): Everyone is going to play Austin Dillon Sunday, so I will pivot to the No. 38 car. Gilliland has been better than Dillon this season (Gilliland has an average finishing position of 19th, while Austin Dillon has an average finishing position of 21st. Gilliland is $500 cheaper too. I will play the driver who is on a hot streak and hope it continues at the Monster Mile.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,000): There were only four drivers who made a 10-lap run in practice, but most of the field made a five-lap run. Do you know which driver was fastest on the five-lap average speed chart? It was LaJoie. He was one of the only drivers who liked his car in practice. LaJoie starts 27th and his average finishing position this year is 19th. LaJoie will score 32 DK Points if he can finish 19th Sunday. This is not too bad for $5K.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,800): I may have too many eggs in the Chase Elliott basket, but he needs this win more than most of the drivers from the top teams. Dover has been one of his best tracks. He won last year and finished third in 2021. His car looked really fast in practice too. Alan Gustafson knows how to win this race, so I am all in with “The Most Popular Driver in NASCAR.”
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,300): I expect that most people will use Kyle Busch as their dominator from the front row, since he is $700 cheaper that Bell and Rowdy has three wins at the track. I will pivot to Bell. He started 17th and finished fourth at Dover Last year. All I care about is what he did in the Gen-7 car at the Monster Mile. Bell is still driving for Joe Gibbs Racing and Kyle Busch is not. That matters at Dover, so I will use Bell as one of my dominators.
KEVIN HARVICK ($9,300): The stats for Harvick are insane. When his car sucks, he finishes in the top-10 at Dover. When his car is good, he leads over 200 laps and destroys the field. Harvick does not need a good car to finish up front this week.
JOSH BERRY ($7,500): Getting a Hendrick Motorsports car at Dover for $7,500 is stealing. Berry is the only driver in the field with significant track time this weekend at Dover. Berry looked good in the Xfinity Series race. I expect he will finish in the top-10 Sunday (or whenever they race).
RYAN PREECE ($6,900): I almost struck gold with Preece when I was all in with him at Martinsville. He led 135 laps and was a speeding penalty away from top-five finish. Dover is the type of track that Preece excels at and he said he has been working with Harvick in the simulator this week. Preece posted the eighth-fastest speed in practice. He will have the upside to finish in the top-10 from his 30th starting position.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,000): I get the driver who posted the 13th fastest speed in practice, with the fastest long-run speed for $5K. I’ll take it. LaJoie may not finish in the top-10, but he should finish in the top-20. That is good enough from the 27th starting position.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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