DFS NASCAR Picks for Cup Series

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The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to the Heartland this weekend to race at Kansas Speedway. We have had two races on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and the results from the DFS picks were completely different. The picks for Las Vegas were some of the best for the season (since we had Kyle Larson and his 181 laps led in every lineup). The picks for Texas were a disaster since most of the top drivers crashed out of the race. Kansas races more like Las Vegas than it does Texas, so we should have another good week in DFS.  We will find out Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.

 

PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING

The Cup Series had a 20-minutes practice session to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Kansas Speedway gets worn out over each winter in the Heartland and this causes the tires to wear out more each time the Cup Series visits the track. The average green flag run in the Gen-7 car at Kansas is only 42 laps. We need to pick drivers who were fast on the long-run for our lineups, but track position is the most important thing in this race. We want drivers to are fast on the long-runs in practice and start up front for Sunday’s race.

 

 

 

DRAFTKINGS POINTS AT KANSAS

There have been four races at Kansas Speedway in the Gen-7 car. The data from those races needs to be used to handicap the Advent Health 400 this week. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the sister track to Kansas Speedway so we need to use the stats from Sin City so we can have some data from this year for our key stats this week.

Here are the stats from the last four races at Kansas (2022 – 2023) and the last race at Las Vegas, sorted by DraftKings Points…

 

 

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

The Cup Series race at Kansas is scheduled for 267 laps (400 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). The trend in the Gen-7 car races at Kansas is for one driver to lead 90 laps and score 46 fastest laps (43.2 Dominator Points), another driver leads 70 laps and score 30 fastest laps (31 Dominator Points) and a third driver leads 42 laps and scores 30 fastest laps (24 Dominator Points). There are also three drivers who lead between 12 -20 laps in the race, so the dominator points get spread out at Kansas. We still need the top two dominators and the 74 bonus points they are likely to score in our lineup. You will have a great chance to take down a large Tournament Contest if you can get three dominators in your lineup Sunday, so I plan to pay up for the drivers who I think will lead the most laps at Kansas.

The drivers with the best chance to score dominator points today includes Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain

The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Justin Haley and Daniel Hemric

 

 

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

Finish = Finishing Points                PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP

KYLE LARSON ($11,000): The most similar track to Kansas Speedway is Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson smoked the field in Sin City. He led 181 laps and went to Victory Lane. He also finished 4th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd and 1st in his last five races at Kansas. Larson looks fast again this week. The No. 5 car posted the fastest speed on the long runs in practice in practice. He should lead a lot of laps and score a lot of fastest laps from the 4th starting position Sunday.

TYLER REDDICK ($10,700):  Reddick finished 9th in this race last year and then he came back to Kansas in September and won the race. Reddick also finished 2nd at Las Vegas and 4th at Texas this year (no driver has a better average finishing position on the 1.5-mile tracks this year). The No. 45 car looked good on the track Saturday. Reddick posted the fastest speed in practice and qualified 15th for the race. Reddick has a great chance to score a lot of place differential points and some dominator points in the race at Kansas.

WILLIAM BYRON ($10,500): Byron looked awesome in practice. He posted the 2nd-fastest speed, with the fastest 10-lap speed. All Willy-B had to do is keep the car off the wall and he likely would have qualified in the top-10. Instead, he hit the wall and now Byron will start in the back. This makes Willy-B a lock for all Cash Contest lineups Sunday.

BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,700): Keselowski looked decent in practice, but overdrove the car in qualifying, so now he will start 30th in the race. This almost makes Keselowski a “must start” in Cash Contests Sunday. His average finishing position on the 1.5-mile tracks this year is 14th and his average finishing position at Kansas in the Gen-7 car is 16th. Keselowski has a good chance to move up 15 – 18 spots and be a top-10 driver in DFS Contests Sunday.

JUSTIN HALEY ($5,100): Haley should be a good “punt play” this week. He scored 24 DK Points on the 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas and Haley scored 26 DK Points at Texas. Haley scored 37 DK Points in the first race at Kansas last year and 30 DK Points in the second race. This lineup will score well if Haley can score 30 DK Points Sunday for only $5,500.

DEREK KRAUS ($5,000): I am not going to try and convince you that Kraus will be a top-20 pick this week. He doesn’t have to finish in the top-20 to return value for Sunday’s race. Kraus road around the back, stayed out of trouble and scored 20 DK Points at Las Vegas (returned 4 X’s value on his price). I just need Kraus to do the same at Kansas.

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

KYLE LARSON ($11,000): I really thought about fading Larson and playing Denny Hamlin, but I just cannot do it. The word in the Garage is that Larson has the car to beat. He has smoked the field many times at Kansas and he has a good chance to do it again Sunday. Hamlin may win the race, but Larson should score more DFS points.

WILLIAM BYRON ($10,500): I know Byron is going to be the highest owned driver, but it is tough to fade him when he is nearly locked into 50+ DK Points. I will eat the chalk and play Byron at Kansas.

CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,800): Elliott is on a hot streak right now. He finished 5th at Richmond, 3rd at Martinsville, won the race at Texas and 5th last week at Dover. Elliott also finished 6th and 7th in the two races at Kansas last year (he was in a slump entering those races). Elliott posted the 8th fastest speed in practice and qualified 9th for the race. The No. 9 car has a great chance to finish up front at Kansas and score some dominator points.

ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Bowman has only competed in three races at Kansas in the Gen-7 car because he was injured for this race last year. Bowman finished 10th, 4th and 9th in those races. He has been on a bit of a hot streak lately and the No. 48 team brought another fast Chevy to the track this weekend. Bowman did not look great in practice or qualifying, but his teammates have the best cars in the field. I am sure they will get the No. 48 car fixed up and Bowman will score well from the 18th starting position.

DANIEL HEMRIC ($5,500): Hemric often gets over looked in DFS and that is probably a mistake. He has been one of the best “punt plays” this season. Hemric scored 40 DK Points on the 1.5-mile track at Las Vegas and 41 DK Point on the intermediate track at Texas. Hemric has a good chance to score well this week, so I will play him at Kansas.

JUSTIN HALEY ($5,100): Haley has been one of the best “punt plays” on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, so I will play him in both lineups this weekend.

 

 

FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

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