The NASCAR Cup Series will have a home race this weekend when they compete at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The pre-race ceremonies at Charlotte are always cool, because no sport celebrates Memorial Day like NASCAR. The racing should be pretty good too. The last race on a 1.5-mile track (Kansas) was one of the best races for the Cup Series in the Gen-7 car. Hopefully we get 600-miles are great racing this weekend. The Coca-Cola 600 can be seen Sunday at 6 pm ET on FOX.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal practice session at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The teams had 20-minutes to shake down their cars before they lined up for qualifying. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. There are going to be a lot of pit stops Sunday, so we need drivers who are fast on the short and long runs in our lineups and it will help if their pit crew is fast too.
Here are the speeds from the practice session Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway…
CUP SERIES STATS AT CHARLOTTE
The Cup Series had three intermediate track races over the last month (Kansas, Dover and Darlington). I will be looking at the data from those races and combining it with the data from the two races in the Gen-7 car at Charlotte. This should give us an idea of which drivers have run well in the recent intermediate track races and ran well at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Here are the driver’s average DraftKings and FanDuel Points from the races at Kansas, Texas, Dover and Darlington this year and the races at Charlotte the last two years, sorted by DFS Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 400 laps (600 miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (280 total dominator points). That is a lot of dominator points, and we need to capture as many of these points as possible Sunday.
The trend in the Cup Series race at Charlotte is for one driver to lead roughly 140 laps and score 60 fastest laps (59 dominator points). A second driver leads 90 laps and scores 50 fastest laps (45 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 50 laps and score 26 fastest laps (24.2 dominator points). A fourth driver leads around 36 laps and cores 24 fastest laps (19.8 Dominator Points). My goal is to try and find the top-two dominators for my lineups Sunday so I can score the roughly 104 dominator points they will likely score.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include William Byron, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon and Todd Gilliland
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($9,500): Truex has a history of dominating races when he has speed in practice and he qualifies up front. The No. 19 car posted the 8th fastest speed in practice and qualified 4th for the race. Truex will have lower ownership than Denny Hamlin and some of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers, but he has the same upside. I just have a feeling this could turn out to be one of those races where Truex dominates the field.
JOEY LOGANO ($8,800): Logano has been hot and cold on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He finished 9th at Las Vegas, 11th at Texas and 34th at Kansas. Logano said after practice that his car needs a lot of work. The good news is that the No. 22 team has 600-miles to get it fixed up. Logano starts 28th so there is not much risk in playing him. Logano should score well from that deep in the field Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,700): Keselowski will have a lot of momentum after his win at Darlington. He also has a history of running well at Charlotte. Keselowski won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2020. Keselowski did not look good in practice and he qualified 30th for the race. Keselowski said after practice that the No. 6 team did not set up the car for a hot slick track. He expects his team to dail in more speed and he is not worried about starting 30th. Keselowski should score the most place differential points Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,500): You could make an argument that Buescher has been the best driver over the last month. I want to play him before he cools off. Buescher finished 8th in the Coca-Cola 600 last year. The No. 17 car crashed in practice, so Buescher did not make a qualifying lap. He will start 39th Sunday and should score 25-30 place differential points. He is a lock for all Cash Contest lineups.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,000): Busch may have a sore jaw, but he also has a good chance to finish up front Sunday. Busch has finished 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 29th (engine problem), 4th, 3rd, 3rd and 1st in his last 8 races on the oval at Charlotte. Busch posted the 13th-fastest speed in practice and qualified 15th-for the race. Charlotte is one of the best tracks for Busch, so he should score well Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($6,500): Gilliland has been one of the best “punt plays” this year. His car typically has more speed than his price reflects and his crew chiefs takes chances to get Gilliland track position so he can lead some laps. There are plenty of cautions in the Coca-Cola 600 for the No. 38 team to gamble in the pits. I will take a chance with Gilliland at Charlotte.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): Hamlin has been really good at Charlotte when he avoids the accidents. Hamlin won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2022 and he finished 2nd in 2020. He was running up front last year when he was spun out. Hamlin should bounce back this weekend. The No. 11 car wasn’t very fast in practice, but Hamlin said on his podcast this week that he never runs hard in practice. He is more focused on finding the balance in his car then raw speed. Hamlin was won many races from outside the top-10. He could do it again Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,300): The Coca-Cola 600 is a marathon race with 12+ pit stops. The No. 9 pit crew ranks No. 1 in NASCAR in pit stop speed. This should help Elliott gain track position in the pits. It also helps that he has a fast car. Elliott qualified 5th for the race, so he has the track position to be one of the dominators Sunday. Elliott won on the 1.5-mile track at Texas and finished 3rd at Kansas. He should have a great chance to finish in the top-five Sunday at Charlotte.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,500): The chances of Buescher being in the winning lineup are at least 85%. I really do not care what his ownership is. I just cannot fade one of the best drivers when he starts 39th.
TY GIBBS ($8,300): Could this be the race when Gibbs breaks his maiden and finds Victory Lane? We have seen some crazy stuff in the Coca-Cola 600, so it would not surprise me. Gibbs posted the 5th fastest speed in practice and he won the pole for the race. Gibbs should lead a lot of laps since he starts up front and has the No. 1 pit stall.
CHASE BRISCOE ($7,300): Briscoe finished 4th in the Coca-Cola 600 in 2022. He is also coming off a 5th-place finish at Darlington. Briscoe wasn’t the fastest driver in practice, but his team will get him fixed up. It also helps that his pit crew ranks as the 8th-fastest in a race with the most pit stops. I will take a chance with the No. 14 car Sunday.
JUSTIN HALEY ($5,800): Can we really trust Haley in our lineups? He finished 18th at Kansas and 9th at Darlington. PRN (Performance Racing Network) interviewed crew chief Chris Lawson after the race at Darlington. He said, “I am not surprised to see our team finish in the top-10. We have an alliance with RFK Racing and our cars have found some speed over the last month. We are going to try and build upon this newly found speed and finish more races in the top-10.” Haley has been one of the best “punt plays” this year. I expect that trend to continue at Charlotte.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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