The NASCAR Cup Series will race at the World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway) for the third time. The Cup Series started to make the trip to St. Louis in 2022. The teams have more data to work with now, so hopefully we will get an exciting race Sunday. The Enjoy Illinois 300 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 pm ET on FS1.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal practice session at Gateway this weekend. The teams had 20-minutes to shake down their cars before they lined up for qualifying. It only takes 32 seconds to turn a lap at Gateway so most of the teams were able to make some long-runs in practice. Track position is the most important thing to consider for our picks this week, but we need to look at the drivers who start up front and have good long-run speed in their cars.
Here are the practice speeds for the Enjoy Illinois 300 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT GATEWAY
Gateway is a 1.25-mile, flat track. The closest track in size and length to Gateway is Phoenix, but a lot has changed in the Cup Series since they raced in the desert. So what do we do this week? Do you focus our picks on the drivers who have run well in the two races at Gateway (small sample size) or focus on the drivers who ran well on the intermediate, flat tracks this year (Phoenix and Richmond). I am combining the data from the two races at Gateway with the data from the two intermediate, flat track races this year.
Here are the stats from the last two races at Gateway in the Gen-7 car and the races at Phoenix and Richmond this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 240 laps (300 miles). That means there are 60 points available for leading laps and 108 points available for fastest laps (168 total dominator points). The trend in the two Cup Series race at Gateway is for one driver to lead roughly 120 laps and score 66 fastest laps (59.7 dominator points). A second driver leads 88 laps and scores 34 fastest laps (37.3 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 30 laps and score 32 fastest laps (21.9 dominator points). My goal is to try and find the top-three dominators for my lineups Sunday so I can score the roughly 119 dominator points they will likely score.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano and Michael McDowell
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Marti n Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Daniel Suarez, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece and Todd Gilliland
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,200): Hamlin has dominated the short tracks this year. He won at Bristol, Richmond and Dover. He was also good at Gateway last year. Hamlin qualified 3rd, finished 3rd in Stage 1, 3rd in Stage 2 and 2nd in the race. The No. 11 car looks fast again this week. Hamlin posted the fourth-fastest speed and qualified sixth for the race. Hamlin has led laps in every race this year. He should lead a lot more Sunday.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,800): Blaney was one of the best drivers in the first two races at Gateway. He led 12 laps and finished fourth in 2022. Blaney led 83 laps and finished sixth last year. The No. 12 car is fast again. Blaney posted the third-fastest long run speed in practice and qualified third for the race. He has a good shot to win at Gateway Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO (6): There is a lot to like about Logano this week. He won the race at Gateway in 2022 and he finished third at this track last year. The No. 22 team hit on something during the tire test at North Wilksboro. They took that information to Richmond and the No. 22 car finished second. They brought it back to the All-Star Race at North Wilksboro and Logano nearly lead every lap in the race. The Enjoy Illinois 300 is a good race to take a chance with Logano in your lineup.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($6,900): Suarez wasn’t on my radar heading into this race and then My Amigo went out and posted the 31st speed in qualifying. Suarez said he liked his car after practice, so I think he was the victim of a bad draw in qualifying. Suarez finished 13th at Phoenix and 22nd at Richmond. Suarez finished seventh at Gateway last year. I will take a shot with the No. 99 car Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($6,400): Gilliland has been one of the better sleeper picks in DFS this year. He finished 17th at Phoenix, 21st at Richmond and 13th at Martinsville. That is an average finishing position of 17th this year on the flat tracks. He also finished 15th and 22nd in his two races at Gateway (an average finishing position of 18.5). Gilliland will be a great pick if he can finish inside the top-20 Sunday. I think he can do it.
DANIEL HEMRIC ($5,300): Hemric will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. I am not going to try an convince you that Hemric is a top-20 driver. We do not need him to be. I just need Hemric to finish in the top-25 Sunday in order to score well. I think he can do it. Hemrci finished 18th last week in the Coca-Cola 600. Maybe that will give him some momentum this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,500): Truex caught fire after the Coca-Cola 600 last year and I think he will do it again this summer He is the best driver in the Cup Series on the flat tracks. Truex has the best Driver Rating, has the best average running position and has led the most laps on the intermediate, flat tracks over the last two seasons (Phoenix, Richmond, Gateway and Loudon). Truex has a habit of getting to the front and leading a lot of laps. I will play the No. 19 car and hope Truex can do it again in Illinois.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,000): Bell broke out of his slump with a win in the Coca-Cola 600. So, can he start a hot streak with a win at Gateway? I am not sure, but a top-five finish in not out of the question. Bell tested at Iowa Speedway earlier this week. It is obvious that the team hit on something that should work at Gateway. Bell posted the fifth-fastest speed on the long runs in practice and qualified fourth for the race. Bell won on a similar track at Phoenix. I will play the No. 20 car and hope he can win back-to-back races.
TY GIBBS ($8,600): The Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been the best on the flat tracks this season. Gibbs finished 3rd at Phoenix and 16th at Richmond. I am not worried about his poor finish at Gateway last year because Gibbs is much improved since that race. Gibbs posted the sixth-fastest speed on the long runs in practice and qualified ninth for the race. Gibbs should have a good chance to run in the top-10 and score and be a good value pick for your DFS lineup.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,800): Can we trust Wallace this week? There is no doubt the No. 23 car has the speed to run up front, but does Wallace have the talent to keep it there. The No. 23 car posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice and qualified eighth for the race. Wallace is a high risk, high reward driver. I will play the high reward side and use the No. 23 car in my Tournament Contest lineup Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($7,200): Berry is typically pretty good on tracks similar to Gateway. Berry finished 11th at Richmond and that track should race like Gateway. He is also coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes (3rd at Darlington and 10th at Charlotte). Kevin Harvick finished 10th in the No. 4 car at Gateway last year. Berry should finish in the top-20 from the 29th starting position.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($5,900): Goodyear is bringing the same tire to the track that was used at Phoenix. Hocevar finished 15th in that race. Can he do it again? Hocevar posted the 10th-fastest long run speed in practice. I doubt his ownership will be too high from the 20th starting position. I think he can move up 5-10 spots and score well for this lineup.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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