The NASCAR Cup Series will complete the first round of their 2024 playoffs when they take the checkered-flag at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. The first two races were truly “wild card races.” Some of the drivers who were the favorites to advance to the championship race in Phoenix are no longer a lock to survive the Round of 16. There is a lot on the line at Bristol, so I expect this race to be every crazier then it normally is. It may be a disaster for our Fantasy NASCAR lineups, but it should be fun to watch. The Bass Pro Shop Night Race can be seen Saturday at 6:30 p.m. on USA Network.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series typically splits the drivers into two groups for practice. That was not the case Friday. Each team had 45-minutes to dial in their car for the Bass Pro Shop Night Race. All of the cars were on the track at the same time, so some of the practice speeds were skewed because of traffic.
Goodyear brought the same softer-tire to the track that was used at Bristol in March. This tire wears out quickly and it requires the drivers to manage the tire to maintain speed through a long run. The drivers with the fastest long-run speed and qualified up front, will be the drivers we will want in our lineups Saturday night. Track position is important at Bristol. Drivers at the back of the pack can easily go a lap down after only 50 laps.
Here are the practice speeds for the Bass Pro Shop Night Race …
CUP SERIES STATS AT BRISTOL
So, how do we handicap the Bass Pro Shop Night Race? The racing at Bristol in March was different from what we have seen at the track in over a decade. I am using the data from the last three races on the concrete at Bristol, with an emphasis on the spring race.
Here are the stats from the last two races at Bristol, sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 500 laps (266 miles). That means there are 125 points available for leading laps and 225 points for fastest laps (350 Dominator Points). That is a lot of dominator points. The new tire that Goodyear brought to the track caused a lot more drivers to lead laps than normal. One driver would burn up his tires to go to the front and lead some laps and then a driver who was saving his tires would take over the lead. I expect the same kind of race to play out Saturday night.
There were two main dominators and two sub-dominators in the race at Bristol in March. Denny Hamlin led 163 laps and scored 49 fastest laps (62.8 dominator points). Ty Gibbs led 137 laps and scored 45 fastest laps (54.5 dominator points). You did not win any money unless you had the 117.3 dominator points that Hamlin and Gibbs scored in the race. Martin Truex Jr. led 54 laps and scored 22 fastest laps (23.4 dominator points) and Christopher Bell led 29 laps and scored 27 fastest laps (19.4 dominator points). The people who stacked the Toyota drivers (Hamlin, Bell, Truex , Gibb and Nemechek) with Ryan Preece scored 442 DraftKings Points and took down every Tournament Contest. You could do that again this week by playing Denny Hamlin ($11,000), Christopher Bell ($10,300), Ty Gibbs ($8,700), Martin Truex Jr. ($8,400), John H. Nemechek ($6,500) and Kaz Grala ($5,100).
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr. and Wlliam Byron
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Brad Keselowski, Josh Berry, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, Erik Jones and John H. Nemechek
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): Hamlin should be a lock for a top-five finish Saturday night. He has won the last two races at Bristol and he has led at least 142 laps in each race. The choice by Goodyear to bring the same tire that was used in March at Bristol will help Hamlin too. He was the best driver once the tires wore-out and it wasn’t even close. Hamlin sits six points below the cut-line to transfer to the next round of the playoffs. He needs a good race and maybe a win at Bristol. He told Kim Coon from USA Network, “We are going to be aggressive tomorrow. We want every Stage Point and we want to win the race. When we are on offense, everyone else is on defense and they will allow us to do what we need to do.” That sounds good to me.
KYLE LARSON ($10,500): I was all in with Larson in the March race at Bristol and it took the No. 5 team a while to figure out the softer tire that Goodyear brought to the track. Larson came to life in the final Stage and finished 5th. His average finishing position in his last four races at Bristol is 3rd. The No. 5 car had some good long-run speed in practice, so I expect Larson to score well in your DFS lineups Saturday night.
TY GIBBS ($8,700): Gibbs had his best race of the season at Bristol in March. He led 137 laps, won both Stages and finished 9th. The No. 54 car posted the fastest lap in practice Friday. Gibbs has the speed and he has the talent to get to the front and lead some laps Saturday night.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,400): Truex has the talent to win this race and his car has the speed to run up front. Can we trust him in our lineups? The No. 19 team has been cursed this year and Truex said after the race at Watkins Glen, “I’m done.” I do not think he is done yet. Truex is going to go out and race his ass off Saturday night and I do not think he really cares who is in his way. He is going to do all he can to win the Bass Pro Shop Night Race. If he doesn’t advance in the playoffs, then Truex will really be done.
ERIK JONES ($6,000): Can Jones find the magic that he once had at Bristol this weekend? Jones used to be one of the better drivers in Thunder Valley. He has not had the same success since he left Joe Gibbs Racing, but maybe this will be the week he figures it out. I am willing to take a chance on “That Jones Boy” for only $6K Saturday night.
KAZ GRALA ($5,100): Drivers who start in the back typically lose a lap early in the race. That has not stopped Grala from scoring well at Bristol. He started 33rd, finished 19th and scored 45 DraftKings Points. Grala starts 36th this weekend at Bristol. He will be in the winning lineup Saturday night if he can have the same type of race under the lights at Bristol.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* Everyone is going to play Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, so I am going to mess with fire and fade these two drivers. This is a risky strategy, but Bristol drivers can easily get caught up in another drivers wreck at this track. I will have a lot of shares of the No. 11 and No. 5 cars, but I will fade them in this lineup.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($9,800): Bristol has been one of the best tracks for Buescher. He won the race in the Gen-7 car at Bristol in 2022, finished 4th in the Bristol Night Race last year and he finished 7th at Bristol in March. He also led laps in each of those races. Buescher got on a roll last year and won back-to-back races last year. He will have a decent chance to win his second consecutive race Saturday night.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,000): No one is talking about Elliott to win the championship this year. He has only won one race, but he has been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series. Consistency could get him to Phoenix. Elliott finished 2nd, 7th and 8th in his three races in the Gen-7 car at Bristol. He should be a safe pick for a top-10 finish again Saturday night.
TY GIBBS ($8,700): Gibbs is my second-favorite drive in this race. His price is way too cheap based on how Gibbs performed in the last race at Bristol and on his speed in practice Friday. I will play Gibbs in both lineups Saturday night.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,400): I am really a gluten for punishment…. I am going to play Truex in both lineups. The upside that Truex offers for $8,400 is just too good to pass up. I will take one more chance with the No. 19 team Saturday night.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,600): Bowman looked pretty good at Bristol in March. He started 29th and quickly made his way through the field to finish 4th. Bowman is known as one of the best drivers on tracks that wear-out tires quickly. He has started to improve ever since the rumor started that he was going to be fired from Hendrick Motorsports. I doubt that rumor is true, but as long as it motivates Bowman to race better, I am all for it.
RYAN PREECE ($6,400): Preece has been really good on the high-banked, concrete tracks. I did not know where I was going to use Preece, but the race Saturday night should be one of his best. Preece has not finished outside the top-14 in the last six races at Bristol. He started 25th, scored Stage Points in both Stages and finished 14th at Bristol in March. Preece should have a good chance to finish in the top-15 Saturday night.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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