The NASCAR Cup Series will take their show to Bristol Motor Speedway for an elimination race in the playoffs. The Bass Pro Night Race always has some chaos, but this year it could be off the charts crazy. The new era of Cup Series drivers are all take and no give. The drivers are going to have no problem moving their competitors out of the way in order to advance in the playoffs. I just hope the drivers we select at on the giving and not the receiving end of the driver dumps Saturday night. Buckle your seatbelt; it is going to get wild in Thunder Valley this weekend.
The race last weekend at Watkins Glen was also a crazy race. Many of the playoff drivers had problems in the race and I was simply praying our drivers could make it to the checkered flag. Shane van Gisbergen was able to finish 2nd, Ross Chastain finished 4th, Michael McDowell finished 7th, Martin Truex Jr. finished 20th and Tyler Reddick finished 27th. It was not a great race, but the picks are still outscoring 98.5% of the entries in the playoff game and they rank No. 47 overall this year. We are going to need some luck to make it through the picks at Bristol.
CUP SERIES PRACTICE
The Cup Series teams had 45-minutes to dial in their cars for the Bass Pro Night Race. Bristol is a .533-mile, high-banked, concrete track. It only takes 15-seconds to make a lap around this bull-ring. Most of the drivers were able to make some long runs in practice. This is important because Goodyear brought the same tire to the track that was used in March. This tire wore out quickly and the drivers who were able to maintain their speed over the long runs were the drivers who finished up front. I expect the same Saturday night. We need to focus our picks on the drivers with long-run speed for the Bass Pro Shop Night Race.
Here are the practice speeds for the Bass Pro Shop Night Race…
* Denny Hamlin posted the 30th fastest speed in practice in March and Ty Gibbs posted the 34-fastest speed. These two drivers combined to lead 300 laps in the spring race at Bristol (Hamlin led 163 and Gibbs led 137). I am not so sure we will learn much from the single-lap speed Friday.
FANTASY LIVE STRATEGY
I am not going to be too concerned with allocation this weekend. I thought about saving my allocations with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson for the Championship Race in Phoenix, but they have not had a good start to the playoffs. There is no guarantee that they will be racing for a championship this year. I want to use my allocations with the drivers while they are still alive in the playoffs. I am not sure Hamlin will be a great pick if he gets eliminated after the race Saturday night.
FANTASY LIVE PICKS FOR BRISTOL
ALEX BOWMAN (5): Bowman looked pretty good at Bristol in March. He started 29th and quickly made his way through the field to finish 4th. Bowman is known as one of the best drivers on tracks that wear-out tires quickly. He has started to improve ever since the rumor started that he was going to be fired from Hendrick Motorsports. I doubt that rumor is true, but as long as it motivates Bowman to race better, I am all for it. Bowman starts on the pole, so he has the track position to score some Stage Points and finish in the top-10 Saturday night.
KYLE LARSON (5): I was all in with Larson in the March race at Bristol and it took the No. 5 team a while to figure out the softer tire that Goodyear brought to the track. Larson came to life in the final Stage and finished 5th. His average finishing position in his last four races at Bristol is 3rd. The No. 5 car posted the third-fastest speed in practice and he starts on the front row so I expect Larson to score well in your Fantasy Live lineups Saturday night.
WILLIAM BYRON (5): Byron has been pretty good at Bristol in his career He finished 3rd in 2021, 3rd in 2022 and 9th last year. The No. 24 car was running in the top-10 at Bristol in March when he was caught up in a wreck. Byron sits 25 points above the cut-off for the playoffs so he needs points Saturday night. I expect the No. 24 team will be aggressive with their pit strategy to ensure Byron scores enough points to advance to the Round of 12. This should be good news for our Fantasy Live lineups too.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (5): Truex has the talent to win this race and his car has the speed to run up front. Can we trust him in our lineups? The No. 19 team has been cursed this year and Truex said after the race at Watkins Glen, “I’m done.” I do not think he is done yet. Truex is going to go out and race his ass off Saturday night and I do not think he really cares who is in his way. He is going to do all he can to win the Bass Pro Shop Night Race. If he doesn’t advance in the playoffs, then Truex will really be done.
DENNY HAMLIN (5): Hamlin should be a lock for a top-five finish Saturday night. He has won the last two races at Bristol and he has led at least 142 laps in each race. The choice by Goodyear to bring the same tire that was used in March at Bristol will help Hamlin too. He was the best driver once the tires wore-out and it wasn’t even close. Hamlin sits six points below the cut-line to transfer to the next round of the playoffs. He needs a good race and maybe a win at Bristol. I think he will get it this weekend.
(GARAGE PICK) CHRISTOPHER BELL (5): Joe Gibbs led 338 of the 500 laps at Bristol in March. There is a good chance that JGR will dominate the race Saturday night. Bell only led 29 laps in the first race, but I expect the No. 20 car to be much better Saturday night. Bell has an average finishing position of 5th in his three races at Bristol in the Gen-7 car. He should be a lock for a top-10 finish, with the upside to finish in the top-five Saturday night.
* If you are out of allocations and need to know which driver to use Sunday night, simply look at the Driver Rankings for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race…
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.