It wasn’t pretty but the NASCAR Cup Series has made it to the Round of 8. The race at Texas was a mess with all of the tire issues and the race last week at the Charlotte Roval was calm until an advertisement sign turned it into chaos. Who would have thought the Talladega would have been the race in the Round of 12 with the least amount of craziness? It will be fun to see what happens in the Round of 8. It all starts Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
CUP SERIES QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had 20 minutes of practice followed by group qualifying for the South Point Casino 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile track so most of the drivers were able to make some long runs in practice. My strategy this week will be to look at the driver’s stats at the 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs (Kansas and Texas), their practice speeds Saturday and where they qualified (track position is important). The drivers who check all of the boxes will be in my DraftKings lineups Sunday.
DFS POINTS ON 1.5-MILE TRACKS (2022)
There have been five races on the 1.5-mile tracks this season (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Texas and two races at Kansas). The drivers who scored well in DFS Contests in these races will likely score well Sunday. Here is the driver’s average DFS Points on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2022…
DFS STRATEGY FOR LAS VEGAS
The race in Las Vegas is scheduled for 267 laps (400.5 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). The trend at Las Vegas is for two drivers to dominate the race and two sub-dominators in the race. One driver leads roughly 80 laps and scores 34 fastest laps (23.3 dominator points). The second driver leads roughly 50 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (17.6 dominator points). The two sub-dominators score roughly 15 dominator points each. We need to pay up for the top-two dominators and try to get at least one of the sub-dominators into our lineups.
The drivers I like to score the most dominator points Sunday include: Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
CORE DRIVERS FOR LAS VEGAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: Denny Hamlin ($11,100), Chase Elliott ($10,700), Christopher Bell ($10,500), Kyle Larson ($10,300), Tyler Reddick ($10,100), Ross Chastain ($9,900), William Byron ($9,700), Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
VALUE DRIVERS: Joey Logano ($8,900), Bubba Wallace ($8,700), Daniel Suarez ($7,900), Austin Cindric ($7,700), Erik Jones ($7,100), Brad Keselowski ($6,900), Aric Almirola ($6,700), ), AJ Allmendinger ($6,400), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000)
PUNT PLAYS: Cole Custer ($5,900), Justin Haley ($5,800) Todd Gilliland ($5,200), Corey LaJoie ($4,900)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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