It was sure nice to have golf back. It is also nice to see all of the top golfers (except Tiger Woods) teeing it up each week. The PGA Tour will travel to Hilton Head, South Carolina this week for the RBC Heritage. This tournament always brings in a strong field because RBC sponsors a lot of the top players, but this week the tournament is even more stacked than normal. It should be another fun week to play DFS golf.
I was pissed Friday night. I really thought my strategy of loading my lineups with golfers who never miss a cut would pay off at Colonial. Most of my lineups only had 3 or 4 golfers make it through to the weekend. I gave up on winning any money until the rain delay for NASCAR. I checked out my lineups and found that 17 of the 20 lineups were winning some money. What??!!! My two highest owned golfers (Collin Morikawa and Daniel Berger) were in 14 of my lineups and they saved my butt. Hopefully this week the lineups will cash a little easier.
The course this week is short for the tour professionals. It is 7,100-yards; par 71, with only three par 5’s which are reachable in two shots for every golfer in the field. What make this course difficult are the trees which line the fairways and the smallest greens on tour. The golfers will have to be accurate off the tee to setup easier approaches to the pins. Accuracy, Accuracy, Accuracy with the irons is what we are looking for this week.
Iron play will be important this week. Most golfers will use irons off the tees and need to have a good wedge game since their second shot is likely to be under 160 yards. Accuracy is the name of the game in this tournament.
Click here to see the course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Key Stats for the RBC Heritage
– Stroke Gained Approach (150-yards – 175-yards)
– Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)
– Ball Striking
– Birdie or Better %
Top 30 Golfers
|1. Justin Thomas DK $10.9K FD $11.8K||16. Dustin Johnson DK $8.5K FD $10.7K|
|2. B. DeChambeau DK $10.7K FD $11.9K||17. Patrick Reed DK $8.8K FD $11.3K|
|3. Rory McIlroy DK $11.3K FD $12.2K||18. Tyrrell Hatton DK $8K FD $9.8K|
|4. Web Simpson DK $9K FD $11.4K||19. Tony Finau DK $8.2K FD $10.3K|
|5. X. Schauffele DK $10.2K FD $11.6K||20. Kevin Kisner DK $7.7K FD $9.8K|
|6. Collin Morikawa DK $10K FD $11.5K||21. Billy Horschel DK $7.7K FD $9.4K|
|7. Daniel Berger DK $8.9K FD $10.6K||22. Bud Cauley DK $7.2K FD $8.8K|
|8. Sungjae Im DK $9.7K FD $10.9K||23. Branden Grace DK $7.8K FD $10.2K|
|9. Jon Rahm DK $10.5K FD $11.7K||24. Adam Hadwin DK $7.3 FD $8.7K|
|10. Gary Woodland DK $8.4K FD $10.5K||25. Victor Hovland DK $7.6K FD $9.9K|
|11. Justin Rose DK $9.2K FD $11.2K||26. Brooks Koepka DK $8.6K FD $11.1K|
|12. Hideki Matsuyama DK 9.5K FD $11K||27. Abraham Ancer DK $8K FD $9.6K|
|13. Matt Kuchar DK $8.3K FD $10.4K||28. J.T Poston DK $7.5K FD $9.2K|
|14. Joel Dahmen DK $7.5 FD $9.5K||29. Harrison English DK $7.3K FD $8.9K|
|15. Ian Poulter DK $7.6K FD $9.4K||30. Scottie Scheffler DK $8.7K|
RBC Heritage Strategy
Last week I played 12 Cash Contests and 8 Tournament Contests (Usually it is the other way around). I played more Cash Contests because of the unpredictability of the form the golfers would be in and I like playing Cash Contests when the fields are loaded with the top golfers. I am also glad I played 50/50 instead of Double-ups because I needed that extra 6% in order to cash. I will use the same strategy this week.
$11K – $10K Price Range
All of the golfers in this price range are really good and will have a good chance to win Sunday. I will be sprinkling each of them into my lineups. I expect Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa to be the highest owned and Jon Rahm to be the lowest owned. For that reason I will use Rahm in some Multi-Entry Tournament Contests this week. I also expect Rory McIlroy to have a dip in ownership since his price is so high, he has no course history and this is not a bombers course. I will use him in a few Multi-Entry Tournament Contests as well. Here are the golfers I like the most…
Justin Thomas $10,900: I am all in on Justin Thomas this week. He played three really good rounds at Colonial and his putter went to crap on Sunday. He ranks No. 2 in the key stats for this tournament. He really does not have a weakness in his game. Thomas has not played this event since 2015, and 2016 but I am not worried about him. Thomas is one of the smartest golfers in the field. I will use him in all types of contests this week.
Bryson DeChambeau $10,700: The No. 1 golfer trending on Twitter last week was Bryson DeChambeau. His popularity is sky-high right now so his ownership should be inflated too. He does rank No. 1 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking and Total Stats for this tournament. DeChambeau finished 3rd in 2018 and 4th in 2017 at Harbour Town. There is a lot to like about him, but his popularity will force me to play him in Single-Entry Tournament Contests only this week.
Collin Morikawa $10,000: The first thing I did when DK came out with the prices was check to see how much Collin Morikawa was. I was disappointed to see him in this range. I was planning to build all of my Cash Contest lineups around him because he is the most reliable golfer in the game. Morikawa has never missed a cut on tour. He also ranks No.1 in Strokes Gained Approach and No. 2 in Ball-Striking. His game is perfect for this course and if he can get over the 2’ put his missed in the playoffs last week, he should have a great chance to win again at Harbour Town.
$9K Price Range
One of my most popular strategies this week will be to completely fade the $10K+ golfers and build lineups with as many golfers from the $9K and $8K range as possible. The golfers from this range have just as much upside as the golfers priced above them.
Sungjae Im $9,700: My strategy for the past year in Cash Contests was to build my lineups around Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im. It looks like those days are over because there prices have really increased. I still like Im this week for Cash Contest and Single-Entry tournament Contests. He is one of the best iron players in the game. When his putter gets hot, he has a good chance to win.
Hediki Matsuyama $9,500: I have a feeling that Hideki Matsuyama is going to be the forgotten golfer from this group. He did not play last week and DFS Golf players have short memories. They will load their lineups with the golfers who were at the top of the leaderboard last week. Matsuyama ranks in the top 10 in the key stats but he has not played here since 2014. I will use Matsuyama in a few Multi-Entry Tournament Contests this week.
Justin Rose $9,200: I recommended Justin Rose last week despite his pathetic start to the season. He went back to his old clubs and it brought him back to his old form. It was not long ago that Rose was the No. 1 golfer in the world. His price is too cheap this week so I will use him in all types of contests.
Webb Simpson $9,000: Webb Simpson was the highest owned golfer last week and he burned a lot of people with his missed cut. You would expect his ownership to take a nose-dive because no one wants to get back on after they were bucked off. That will not be the case. Simpson stats and course history are top-five in the field. He will still be popular so I will play him in Cash and Single-Entry Tournament Contests this week.
$8K Price Range
Daniel Berger $8,900: The narrative in DFS Golf is to fade a golfer after he wins a tournament, but I am not taking that strategy with Daniel Berger. He ranks 4th in Shots Gained Approach, 6th in Accuracy off the Tee and 3rd in Total Stats for this tournament. Berger finished 33rd in the RBC Heritage last year but his form is light years ahead of where it was last year. I will play Berger in Cash and Single-Entry tournament Contests this week.
Dustin Johnson $8,500: You would think Dustin Johnson would skip this tournament since this is not a bombers course. That is not the case because DJ is sponsored by RBC. DJ missed the cut last week so many people will be hesitant to click the button but he did finish 16th in 2018 and 28th last year. I do not think DJ is in good enough form to win, but for $8,500 I will use him in some Tournament Contest lineups this week.
Gary Woodland $8,400: Gary Woodland is another golfer who finished in the top 10 last week and saw his price drop by $400 this week. Woodland has not played Harbour Town since 2013 but I expect him to figure out the course quickly. He ranks No. 4 in the field in accuracy off the tee. That is going to be really important this week so I will have a lot of shares of Woodland in my lineups.
Matt Kuchar $8,300: Pretty much everything I wrote about Webb Simpson can be said about Matt Kuchar this week. He was very popular at Colonial and burned a lot of people with his missed cut. We need to get back on the Koooch Train when it makes its stop in Harbour Town. Kuchar is 15/15 in cuts made at this tournament and he ranks No.1 in the field on Pete Dye courses. I will use him in all types of contests this week.
Tyrrell Hatton $8,000: The stats and the price for Tyrrell Hatton scream “play me” but what kind of form is he in. Hatton was on a hot streak when the tour was stopped in March. He just won he Arnold Palmer Invitational and he finished 6th in the World Golf Championship. His stats rank 12th overall so he should be a good play. I will use him in Multi-Entry Tournament Contests this week because I want to play it safe and use golfers I know are in good form in Cash and Single-Entry Tournament Contests.
$7K Price Range
Billy Horschel $7,700: Billy Horschel is a horse for the course this week. Knowledge of the golf course is important this week because placing the ball in the correct position in the fairway is critical to scoring well. Horschel has played this event every year since 2012 and he only missed one cut. He also has two finishes in the top-10, including a top-five finish in 2018.
Kevin Kisner $7,700: Kevin Kisner was one of my core golfers last week and I am going back to him at Harbour Town. Kisner plays his best at short courses that require a lot of accuracy. He has played this event every year since 2013 and he is 6/6 in cuts made. Kisner should be a good play for both Cash and Tournament Contests.
Ian Poulter $7,600: Ian Poulter is another golfer who is sponsored by RBC so he shows up at the tournament a lot. Poulter has played the RBC Heritage every year since 2014 and he is 5/5 in cuts made. That includes three straight top-11 finishes. Poulter looked pretty good last week with his 29th place finish so I will use him in both Cash and Tournament Contests this week.
Joel Dahmen $7,500: Joel Dahmen is my favorite golfer from this group. When I ran the “Key Stats” for this tournament Dahmen ranked 12th overall. I could not believe it. When I ran the model for similar courses, he ranked 9th. I am a numbers guy, so I will have a lot of shares of Dahmen this week. He has finished 19th (last week), 5th, 5th and 14th in his last four tournaments this year. Dahmen finished 16th in the RBC Heritage last year. I will use Dahmen in both Tournament and Cash Contests this week.
Adam Hadwin $7,300: Sticking to the theme of playing golfers who are sponsored by the RBC, I will be using Adam Hadwin again this week. Hadwin has played the RBC Heritage in four of the last five seasons. He made the cut in 4/5 events. Hadwin is coming off a 43rd-place finish at Colonial so his form is not too bad. I do not trust him enough for Cash Contests but Hadwin is worth a spot in a few Tournament Contest lineups.
Bud Cauley $7,200: I really like Bud Cauley this week. He is a ball-striker who usually tears up short courses that require a steady game. Cauley played his last 36 holes at Colonial without making a bogey. It does not get much steadier then that. He has played this tournament three years in a row and is 3/3 in cuts made, including a 9th-place finish in 2017. I will use Cauley in some Tournament Contest lineups this week.
Rory Sabbatini $7,200: There are not a lot of courses where I recommend Rory Sabbatini but Harbour Town is one of his best. He has played this tournament 15 times with 13 cuts made. That includes a 10th-place finish last year. Sabbatini is in decent form since he finished 14th last week at Colonial. I will have a few shares of Sabbatini in my Tournament Contest lineups.
Maverick McNeally $7,100: Maverick McNealy is a golfer that popped when I ran the key stats for this tournament. He ranked 21st in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, 14th in Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda) and 10th in Total Stats. Say what??? He finished 32nd last week at Colonial so his form is pretty good. Maverick will be my “Top Gun” from the lower $7K range (OK, I know that is a horrible joke, but I had to put it in there..LOL)
Jim Furyk $7,100 and Luke “Harbour Town” Donald $7,000: This could be the week to throw a few shares of the “Old Timers” into your lineup. Jum Furyk and Luke Donald have awesome stats at Harbour Town. Furyk just made the cut at Colonial and Donald has made 4/5 cuts this season. I will through each of these two golfers into a Multi-Entry Toruanement Contests and hop they play well at one of their best courses.
Max Homa $7,000: Max Homa was everyone’s favorite golfer this year when he made 10 cuts in a row, including four finishes in the top 14. He missed one cut (last week) and now he is priced at $7K. Homa only missed the cut by one shot, so I am not afraid to jump back on the Homa bandwagon. I will have him in a few Tournament Contest lineups this week.
$6K Price Range
I am going to be building a lot of balanced lineups this week so I will not be using too many golfers from this price range. There are a few that I feel comfortable throwing into some Multi-Entry Tournament Contests though. They include Charles Howell III $6,900, Brian Stroard $6,600, Doc Redman $6,400 (I really like him on FanDuel) and Denny McCarthy $6,200
DraftKings Cash Contest Lineup
* I also like a lineup with Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Gary Woodland, Matt Kuchar, Ian Poulter and Joel Dahmen
DraftKings Single-Entry Tournament Lineup
DraftKings Multi-Entry Tournament Lineup
FanDuel Cash Contest Lineup
FanDuel Tournament Contest Lineup
PGATour.com Fantasy Picks:
* There are only 7 events in this segment and I doubt the golfers will play all 7. I am not worried about allocations since the fields are likely to be stacked this summer and provide a lot of choices for our teams.
My One & Done Pick is: Ian Poulter (RBC Heritage)
Players Used This Season in One & Done: Webb Simpson, Cameron Champ, Charles Howell III, Lucas Glover, Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Gary Woodland and Bryson DeChambeau
My Best Bets For RBC Heritage:
Justin Rose 28-1
Kevin Kisner 50-1
Ian Poulter 80-1
Joel Dahmen 80-1
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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