The NASCAR Xfinity Series will join the Cup Series at Dover Motor Speedway this weekend. It has been a while since the Xfinity Series has competed on a traditional oval track. The race this weekend is shaping up to be a good one. Justin Allgaier has dominated most of the oval track races this year, but he will have some competition. Ross Chastain will drop down from the Cup Series and Aric Almirola will make his return to the No. 19 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. We cannot count out Connor Zilisch. He has been the best driver in the Xfinity Series over the last month. It should be fun to see which driver finds their way to Victory Lane at the Monster Mile. The BetRivers 200 can be seen Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on CW Channel.
DRAFTKINGS STATS FOR DOVER
Dover is a one-mile, high-banked, concrete track. Most drivers say that Dover is a larger version of Bristol Motor Speedway. The Monster Mile is also like Nashville Superspeedway. Both tracks have concrete surfaces and they are similar in size. I used the stats from the last three races at Dover and combined it with the stats from the races on the concrete at Bristol and Nashville this year to handicap the BetRivers 200. I will use these stats and the practice speeds to pick the drivers for today’s race.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Dover Motor Speedway and the races at Bristol and Nashville this year, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR separated the teams into groups based on the metrics from the race at Sonoma last week for practice and qualifying. Each group was given 25-minutes to shake down their cars for today’s race. The drivers went out for single-car qualifying to set the field for the BetRivers 200. Most of the teams had enough time to make at least one long run in practice. We should be able to learn who will be fast in the race by looking at the 10-lap average speed from practice this morning.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Dover Motor Speedway…
* Ross Chastain will have the No. 1 pit stall since the pits are assigned by the finishing position from the race at Sonoma. Shane van Gisbergen drove the No. 9 car to Victory Lane last week, so Chastain and the No. 9 team got to pick first.
** Justin Allgaier got into the wall on his qualifying lap. We will have to keep an eye on him, since the No. 7 car may have to start in the back if they fix the car.
STRATEGY FOR DOVER
The race Saturday is scheduled for 200 laps (200 miles). That means there are 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps (140 dominator points). The trend in the last three races at Dover is for one driver to lead roughly 90 laps and score 20 fastest laps (31.5 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 40 laps and scores 34 fastest laps (25.3 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 26 laps and scores 16 fastest laps (13.7 dominator points).
We are going to need the top-two dominators in our tournament lineups today. It will be hard to win our contest without the 57 dominator points that they are projected to score. We will just need our other four drivers to score a few place differential points and not screw things up for the lineup to score well. It will be even better to have the top-three dominators and the 70.5 dominator points that they are projected to score. I will pay up for the drivers who I think can lead the most laps at Dover today.
DRIVER RANKINGS FOR DOVER
DRAFTKINGS CASH LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT LINEUP
* Justin Allgaier has been the best driver at this track. He has a good chance to lead some laps and win the race “if” he keeps his starting position. I did not include Allgaier in the lineup because the No. 7 team took their car to the garage to inspect the damage after qualifying. I did not want to change all of the lineups “if” Allgaier goes to the back. I will play him from 7th starting position, but I will fade him from the back.
Good Luck Saturday!
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