DFS Xfinity Series Picks for Dover

The Xfinity Series will join the Cup Series at Dover International Speedway this week. The Xfinity Series has not lacked excitement this year. It seems like each race ends with two drivers beating and banging each other to get the checkered-flag. So will we see any payback this week (Yes, I am talking about Sam Mayer and Ty Gibbs). Or maybe we will see John H. Nemechek dominate the race and then move over and let Gibbs win so he does not get fired. It should be fun to watch. The A-Game 200 can be seen Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

XFINITY SERIES PRACTICE RESULTS

NASCAR gave the Xfinity Series teams 20 minutes to shake down their cars in practice. This was enough time for some of the drivers to make some long runs in practice. It is tough to learn a lot from such a short practice but it does give us an idea of the speed the teams will have to start the race since the cars are impounded after qualifying. Here are the speeds from Friday’s practice session….

DFS POINTS FROM LAST 3 RACES AT DOVER

Dover is a rhythm racetrack. Drivers who figure out how to dive into the corners and make their car stick around the bottom of the track are the ones who continue to have success at the Monster Mile. Here are the drivers who have scored the most points in DFS contests at Dover over the last two years…

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)

Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

STRATEGY FOR DOVER

The race Saturday is scheduled for 200 laps (200 laps). That is a pretty short race, especially when the first two Stages are only 45-miles in length. There are still 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps. We need to try and capture as many of these dominator points as possible Saturday.

The trend for the Xfinity Series race at Dover is for one driver to lead 90 laps and score 44 fastest laps (42.3 dominator points). Another driver typically leads 56 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (32.9 dominator points). A third driver leads 48 laps and scores 34 fastest laps (27.3 dominator points). We will win every contest is we are able to capture the 102.5 dominator points from the three dominators Saturday. It will not matter what our cheap drivers do in our lineup if we have the three top dominators. For that reason, I will be paying up for dominators at Dover.

My top dominators today are John H. Nemechek, Ty Gibbs, Brandon Jones, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier

CORE DRIVERS FOR DOVER

TY GIBBS ($11,400): Gibbs has to be considered one of the dominators Saturday. His Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is the fastest car in the field each week. Braxton Busch could probably drive this car to Victory Lane. Gibbs only competed in one Xfinity Series race at Dover. He started 14^th, did not lead any laps and finished 5^th. His top-five finish was good, but Gibbs is going to need to lead a lot of laps to pay off his high salary. He had the second-fastest car in practice (behind John H. Nemechek)

NOAH GRAGSON ($11,100): What to do with Gragson this week? Dover is a great track for Hendrick Motorsports so the Junior Motorsports car should all be fast. Gragson has not had a lot of success at the Monster Mile though. His average finishing position in his six races at Dover is 9.6. He has only led 38 laps in those races too. Gragson is going to need to lead some laps Sunday. The No. 9 was fast in practice and Gragson starts up front, so he should have a decent chance to lead some laps Saturday.

JOHN H. NEMCHEK ($10,600): Nemechek will be behind the wheel of the No. 18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing this week. This has been the second-fastest car in the field (behind Ty Gibbs) in most of the races this year. Nemechek drove this car at Richmond. He started 2^nd, led 135 laps and finished 2^nd. Nemechek had the fastest car on the long runs in practice. He should quickly make his way to the front and score a lot of place differential and dominator points Saturday.

JUSTIN ALLGAIER ($10,300): If we base this race on the stats, the race Saturday should be called “The Justin Allgaier Invitational.” He has dominated the races at Dover for a long time. Allgaier finished 3^rd, 7^th, 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd, 1^st and 2^nd in his last 8 races at the Monster Mile. He also led 431 laps in those races. This is the best track for Allgaier so I will pay up for the No. 7 car Saturday.

JOSH BERRY ($10,100): Josh Berry is known as a short track specialist and Dover is considered an intermediate track, but that does not mean Berry will not dominate the race Saturday. He was really good at Dover last year. Berry started 6^th, led 48 laps and scored 42 fastest laps (30.9 dominator points). He would have dominated more of the race if Austin Cindric was not so fast. He does not need to worry about a Team Penske car Saturday, so Berry should be one of the top dominators in the race.

SAM MAYER ($9,700): “Payback’s a bitch.” Mayer has been… let’s just say… “racing Ty Gibbs aggressively” this year. Will they continue to beat on each other Saturday? I doubt it because the speeds are pretty fast at Dover. Mayer has been good this year. He finished his last three races in the top-five (not counting Talladega). I am all in on the Junior Motorsports cars Saturday so Mayer will be in many of my lineups.

BRANDON JONES ($9,400): The race Saturday should be a battle between the Junior Motorsports cars and the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota’s. That is how it has been this year on the intermediate and short tracks. This race should be no different. Jones is a high-risk, high-reward driver this week. He has three finished in the top-10 and two finishes outside the top-35 in his last five races at Dover. Jones starts on the pole and had one of the fastest cars in practice. He should have a good chance to be a dominator Saturday.

RYAN SIEG ($8,200): Sieg has been the best value pick in DraftKings contests this year and that will not change Saturday. Sieg has the fourth-best average finishing position in the Xfinity Series this year (only including the full-time drivers). His average finishing position is better than Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, Daniel Hemric, Brandon Jones, Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed. The No. 39 car had something break in practice so they went to the garage to fix it. Sieg did not post a qualifying lap so he will start last and is a lock for DFS lineups Saturday.

LANDON CASSILL ($8,000): Cassill has some momentum after back-to-back top-five finishes. Cassill is not going to lead any laps Saturday but he should be a good value pick to finish in the top-10. Jebb Burton finished 11^th at Dover in the No. 10 car for Kaulig Racing. Cassill will score 8 place differential points and be one of the top value picks if he can do what Burton did in the No. 10 car.

BRETT MOFFITT ($7,800): Moffitt has been a safe pick for DFS contests this year and that is what he will be Saturday. Moffitt has three races at Dover on his resume. He finished 13^th, 10^th and 15^th in those races. He should have a good chance to finish somewhere near the 12^th spot at Dover this week and score about 4 place differential points.

BRANDON BROWN ($7,400): I really like the value picks priced between $7,400 (Brandon Brown) and $8,200 (Ryan Sieg). It is tough to find a driver who gets more out his car than Brown. He struggled the last two weeks (Talladega and Martinsville), but Brown is better at the oval tracks. He finished 10^th, 16^th, 14^th, 11^th and 13^th in his last five races at Dover. Brown should finish right inside the top-18 and score 5-7 place differential points.

CHANDLER SMITH ($7,300): I am not going to have many shares of Smith Saturday because I think there are better choices in this price range but I will write about him because I know I will get questions about Smith. He is driving the No. 26 car for Sam Hunt Racing. This car has been driven by Ryan Truex, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Parker Chase, Derek Griffith and John H. Nemechek this year. The only driver who had success in this car was Nemecheck. He finished 5^th at Phoenix and 12^th at Las Vegas. The average finishing position for this car in 2022 is 19.4. Smith should finish around the 15^th spot and have decent value this week.

ANTHONY ALFREDO ($7,100): “Fast Pasta” has been one of the better picks in DFS Contests this year and that will not change Saturday. Alfredo has a 22^nd-place average starting position and a 14^th-place average finishing position. He has score positive place differential points in every race this year. That explains why his is averaging the 6^th-most DFS Points this year (38.1 points per contest). He is risky from the 10^th starting spot, but I will have some shares in Tournament Contests.

PARKER RETZLAFF ($6,200): Retzlaff has competed in three races in the Xfinity Series and he has had speed in all of the races. Retzlaff finished 10^th at Richmond and 12^th at Martinsville. He was running in the top-12 at Phoenix but had a fuel pump go out. Retzlaff should run in the top-15 again Saturday and be a good pick as long as his car stays in one piece.

RYAN ELLIS ($5,800): Ellis has been the best “punt play” in the Xfinity Series. He started 35^th and finished 13^th at Las Vegas (52 DK Points) and he started 35^th and finished 16^th at Phoenix (46 DK Points). His 38.3 average DK Points per contest are 5^th-best in the Xfinity Series. I will have some shares of Ellis Saturday and hope he can continue to score some place differential points.

BAYLEY CURREY ($5,200): Currey has been good when his team has had funding and this is one of those races where Currey has a sponsor and the car has the support of Richard Childress Racing. (The car is not prepared by RCR, but it has a Childress Engine and it is an old chassis from RCR. Currey finished 17^th in his last two races when he had sponsorship. He will have value if he can finish around the top-15 Saturday.

DFS EXAMPLE LINEUPS

Each year I get told the same thing… I used your lineup and I did not win the big jackpot. That is because 25-50 other people copied and pasted my lineup too and you had to split the pot 25-50 ways. The lineups posted this year will be examples on how to create a lineup for the race. You can copy and paste, but just know a lot of other people will have the same lineup. (It is OK to copy and paste the Cash Contest lineup). There is plenty of information in this article to help you create your own unique lineup to give you a better chance of winning.