The Cup Series will travel back to Darlington Raceway to start the 2023 playoffs. The cream usually rises to the top in the playoffs, but that was not the case last year. Erik Jones did not make the playoffs in 2022, but he won the playoff race at Darlington. Actually, all of the races in the Round of 16 were won by non-playoff drivers (Bubba Wallace at Kansas and Chris Buescher at Bristol). I doubt that will happen this year. I expect the playoff drivers to dominate the race at Darlington. It should be fun to see the cars compete on this worn-out track. The Southern 500 can be seen Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on USA Network.
STRATEGY FOR DARLINGTON
There are races where we need to save our top drivers in the Driver Group Game and then there are races when we need to play our top drivers. The race Sunday night is one of the races when we need to load our lineups with the top drivers. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have a history of running well at Darlington and they were very good at this track in May. Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones also have had success at Darlington and we cannot ignore the momentum that Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher have right now. These are the drivers you need to consider for your lineup Sunday night.
Here are the picks for the Southern 500 …
GROUP A DRIVERS
WILLIAM BYRON (2): Byron enters the playoffs as the top-seed because of his five wins in 2023. One of those wins was in the last race at Darlington. Byron qualified fourth, scored 16 Stage Points, led seven laps and went to Victory Lane. He also scored 16 Stage Points and finished eighth in the Southern 500. The tracks most similar to Darlington include Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte and Dover. His average finishing position at those tracks and the last race at Darlington is 2.2. The No. 24 car should be the favorite to win Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN (6): Deciding which driver to pair with William Byron was a tough decision. Ross Chastain had the second-best car at Darlington in May, but can we trust Trackhouse Racing right now? Joe Gibbs Racing has come to life this summer, so I will play Hamlin. He only finished 12th in the May race at Darlington, but Hamlin is always better on Labor Day weekend than he is in the spring at “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” Hamlin finished second and first in his last two Southern 500s. I expect the No. 11 car to be fast this weekend.
(OTHER PICK) ROSS CHASTAIN (7): Chastain should be in your lineup if you believe the results from the May race at Darlington will transfer to the Southern 500 Sunday night. Chastain qualified fifth; scored 17 Stage Points, led 93 laps, but was wrecked at the end of the race. Chastain had the second-best car in the race (behind Martin Truex Jr.) Chastain would be a good pick if you are running low with your allocations with Denny Hamlin.
GROUP A DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) William Byron 2) Denny Hamlin 3) Ross Chastain 4) Kyle Larson 5) Christopher Bell 6) Ryan Blaney 7) Joey Logano 8) Chase Elliott
GROUP B DRIVERS
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (1): I sure wish there was a way to purchase more allocations of the No. 19 car. I have one start left with Truex and there are three races in the playoffs that I want to use him at. Truex dominated the race at Darlington in May. He won the pole, scored 11 Stage Points, led 145 laps, but was sent into the wall by Ross Chastain midway through the race. Truex has the best driver rating on the similar tracks to Darlington this year. I hope I do not need to use him Sunday night, but I at least need to have the No. 19 car as an option, just in case he dominates practice and wins the pole again.
KEVIN HARVICK (3): Harvick makes me a bit worried this week. He was asked after the race at Daytona what he expects for the playoffs. Harvick said, “I don’t know. I really don’t know. I hope we can find some speed, but right now we are nowhere near where we need to be.” Well, that is not very positive. I will ignore what Harvick said and go by what he has done. Harvick has the best driver rating at Darling and the best average finishing position over the last eight races at the track. The No. 4 car finished second at Darlington in May and Harvick’s average finishing position at this track since he joined Stewart Haas Racing is 5.6. Those starts are just too good to pass up this week.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (4): How happy is Keselowski right now? Both of his cars made the playoffs and they finished first and second last week at Daytona. RFK Racing has to have some confidence heading into the Southern 500. The team struggled last year and Keselowski was still able to finish seventh in the Southern 500. Now they have some momentum. Keselowski finished fourth at Darlington in May. I would not be surprised if Keselowski was able to manage his tire wear over a long run and win the race Sunday night.
BUBBA WALLACE (4): The last choice in Group B was tough. Should I go with Kyle Busch who has been either great or horrible at Darlington, or should I go with Wallace who has momentum right now? Wallace was fast at Darlington in May. He qualified second, finished third in Stage 1, but then his team had a penalty in the pits. Wallace spent the rest of the race trying to get his track position back. He rallied to a fifth-place finish. Wallace also finished ninth in the Southern 500 last year. I expect the No. 23 car to start off the playoffs with another top-10 finish Sunday night.
(OTHER PICK) ERIK JONES (8): Jones is your driver if you want to save an allocation with one of the drivers listed above. To say Darlington is his best track is a huge understatement. Jones has won two of the last four Southern 500s. His average finishing position in his six Southern 500s is 8.5. This is the best race of the year to use an allocation with Jones.
GROUP B DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Martin Truex Jr. 2) Kevin Harvick 3) Brad Keselowski 4) Bubba Wallace 5) Kyle Busch 6) Erik Jones 7) Tyler Reddick 8) Alex Bowman 9) Daniel Suarez 10) Chris Buescher
GROUP C DRIVERS
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (6): I used Stenhouse last week at Daytona and I will go back to him Sunday night. JTG Daugherty has known since February that they were in the playoffs. They probably have been working on the car for this race all summer. Stenhouse qualified third, scored Stage Points in both Stages and finished 13th at Darlington in May. There is a good chance that Stenhouse will have a similar race Sunday night.
TY GIBBS (4): We do not have many good options in Group C this week, so I will have Gibbs in my lineup. Darlington is not the best track for Gibbs, but he has not been too bad. Gibbs has two Cup Series races at “The Track Too Tough to Tame” on his resume. He finished 15th and 16th in those races. I expect another top-15 finish from Gibbs Sunday night.
(OTHER CHOICE) AJ ALLMENDINGER (3): Experience matters at Darlington and Allmendinger has it. This egg-shaped track is not like any other track in the country. It takes a while to figure out how to make fast laps at Darlington. Allmendinger’s experience should allow him to finish in the top-20 Sunday night. Allmendinger is the next best choice if you are running out of allocations with Ty Gibbs.
GROUP C DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2) Ty Gibbs 3) AJ Allmendinger 4) Harrison Burton 5) Carson Hocevar
* Be sure to check back Sunday morning for my starting lineup.
XFINITY SERIES PICKS
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