The 2023 NASCAR Season has reached the middle race in the Round of Eight and that means we only have three races to climb to the top of our league standings. There are a handful of drivers who really run well at Homestead. We should be able to post a high score this week if we select these drivers for our lineups and nothing crazy happens in the race Sunday. We will see how it all plays out at Homestead. The 4Ever 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
STRATEGY FOR HOMESTEAD
The strategy for the Driver Group Game is to simply play the best drivers you have available. I want to use my top drivers at Homestead and try to find short track specialists at Martinsville and Phoenix. All drivers are in play for the Driver Group Game at Homestead.
Here are the picks for the 4Ever 400 …
GROUP A DRIVERS
KYLE LARSON (3): Larson dominated the race last week at Las Vegas and he dominated the race at Homestead last year. Larson led 199 of the 267 laps, won both Stages and went to Victory Lane at Homestead last year. The No. 5 team will likely show up to race this week. Larson won the first race in the Round of Eight in 2021 (Texas). He then won the next race in the Round of Eight (Kansas) and then went on to win the championship. Larson is the best pick in the field Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON (2): Will Hendrick Motorsports focus all of their work this week on the No. 24 car since Kyle Larson is already locked into the championship four. I think it could happen. Byron won at Homestead in 2021 and he should be fast this weekend. Byron ranks No. 1 in average speed on the high tire-wear tracks in the Gen-7 car (Auto Club, Darlington and Homestead). It was tough choosing between Denny Hamlin and William Byron, but I will take the driver who has the most wins this season.
(OTHER PICK) DENNY HAMLIN (4): Hamlin is no stranger to Victory Lane at Homestead. He has three wins in Southern Florida, with his last trip to Victory Lane in 2020. Hamlin cooled off a bit after his hot start to the playoffs, but he should bounce back at Homestead. Hamlin ranks fourth in average speed on the high tire-wear tracks in the Gen-7 car. Hamlin will be a good pivot from Kyle Larson or William Byron if you are out of allocations with the Hendrick Motorsports drivers.
GROUP A DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Kyle Larson 2) William Byron 3) Denny Hamlin 4) Ryan Blaney 5) Chase Elliott 6) Joey Logano 7) Ross Chastain 8) Christopher Bell
GROUP B DRIVERS
TYLER REDDICK (1): Could Reddick win the race Sunday and secure a spot in the Championship Four? I would not bet against it. The key to running fast at Homestead is to search the track for grip and to run up against the wall. That is right in Reddick’s wheelhouse. He said on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Monday, “I feel really confident about the race at Homestead. This has been my best track ever since I entered NASCAR. My team knows what I need to win at this track and I am sure they will have a fast car for me to drive Sunday.” I saved my last allocation with Reddick for this race and I plan to use it Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (1): Can we trust Truex? The No. 19 team was on fire over the summer and they have been in a slump in the playoffs. Truex had a shaky race last week at Las Vegas, but he was able to finish eighth. I will give Truex another chance this week. He has finished four of the last six races at Homestead in the top-three. His stats in Southern Florida are just too good to fade this week.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (1): I am really impressed with the improvement that the RFK Racing cars have made this year. Keselowski finished fifth at Homestead last year and the No. 6 team is running a lot better in 2023 than they were in 2022. He has the seventh-best average finishing position in the playoffs this year (second-best from the Group B drivers). I will play the hot hand and have Keselowski in my lineup this weekend.
KEVIN HARVICK (2): NASCAR named the race this week for Harvick (4Ever 400). He has to show up and run well, right? I think the old man has another good run in him. Harvick has finished 14 of his last 15 races at Homestead in the top-10. That is a large sample size with some good results. I just have a feeling Harvick is going to run well Sunday.
(OTHER PICK) KYLE BUSCH (0): I am out of allocations with Busch. I would use him over Kevin Harvick if I could. Busch finished third in the last two races, so he is on a bit of a hot streak. Busch has not finished outside the top-10 at Homestead since 2014 (almost a decade). That includes trips to Victory Lane in 2015 and 2019. This is a good race to use an allocation with Rowdy Busch.
GROUP B DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Tyler Reddick 2) Martin Truex Jr. 3) Kyle Busch 4) Brad Keselowski 5) Kevin Harvick 6) Alex Bowman 7) Erik Jones 8) Bubba Wallace 9) Daniel Suarez 10) Chris Buescher
GROUP C DRIVERS
TY GIBBS (2): Gibbs kept his streak alive after the race at Las Vegas. Gibbs still has not finished in the top-10 on a 1.5-mile track this season. The No. 54 car has speed, but Gibbs continues to have problems in the race. He did run well on the high-tire wear tracks this year and he qualified sixth for this race last year. Gibbs should show up with a lot of speed again this week. He will likely qualify up front and run in the top-10. I just need him to bring the car home in one piece.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (3): I had a hard time deciding if I should go with AJ Allmendinger or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. I decided to go with Stenhouse because he is good at searching the track for grip (similar to dirt track racing) and I need Allmendinger for Martinsville. Stenhouse finished 13th and 15th in his last two races at Homestead. Stenhouse should have a decent chance to finish in the top-15 Sunday.
(OTHER CHOICE) AJ ALLMENDINGER (1): Allmendinger has been good at Homestead in his career. He qualified 10th, scored five Stage Points and finished third at Homestead last year. His average finishing position in his last four races in Southern Florida is 11th. Pair Allmedinger with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. if you are out of allocations with Ty Gibbs.
GROUP C DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Ty Gibbs 2) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 3) AJ Allmedinger 4) Carson Hocevar 5) Ryan Preece
* Be sure to check back Sunday morning for my starting lineup.
TRUCK SERIES PICKS
XFINITY SERIES PICKS
Good Luck This Weekend!
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