The Cup Series will travel from Richmond, Virginia to Martinsville Virginia this week for another short track race. The 2024 season has had some pretty good finishes. We had three drivers in a photo finish at Atlanta; Christopher Bell put on the Superman cape and came from mid-pack to win the race at Phoenix; Denny Hamlin went old-school to manage his tires to win at Bristol and then Hamlin dared NASCAR to call him for jumping the restart at Richmond as he went to Victory Lane again. Martinsville was made for wild finishes. We will likely have a lot more drama at the end of the race this week. Buckle up because it will be fun to see which driver gets their clock cleaned at Martinsville. The Cook Out 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
* Practice and qualifying is scheduled for 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. I will try to get some of the picks posted after qualifying Saturday evening, but I have a Wrestle Mania Party to go to Saturday night (Yes, I am one of “those” people). I will try to get the One & Done, Driver Group Game and Fantasy Live picks posted Saturday evening, but whatever picks are not posted Saturday, will be posted early Sunday morning.
STRATEGY FOR MARTINSVILLE
The Toyota’s have been the kings of the short tracks this year and they were very good in the last race at Martinsville. The Toyota’s led 298 of the 312 laps at Phoenix earlier this season. They also led 256 of the 400 laps at Richmond last week. Denny Hamlin won the short, flat track races at the Clash at the Coliseum and at Richmond. Christopher Bell won the race at Phoenix. The Toyota’s are going to be tough to beat Sunday at Martinsville. Who will be the team that will compete with the Toyota’s for the win Sunday?
The Fords were really good at Martinsville last year. Ryan Preece led 135 laps and Chase Briscoe led 109 laps for Stewart-Haas Racing in the April race at Martinsville last year. Ryan Blaney led 145 and went to Victory at Martinsville last October. Joey Logano finished 2nd and 5th in the two races at Martinsville last year. The race Sunday should be a battle between Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, but Hendrick Motorsports could be good too. Kyle Larson and William Byron are good at Martinsville, but their allocations are too valuable at the larger tracks for me to use this week at Martinsville.
Here are the picks for the Cook Out 400 …
GROUP A DRIVERS
DENNY HAMLIN (9): Is the Cook Out 400 Hamlin’s race to win? I think so. The closest track to Martinsville on the schedule is the L.A. Coliseum. Hamlin won that race earlier this year and he won the last two short track races on the schedule (Bristol and Richmond). Hamlin’s average finishing in his last three races at Martinsville is 4th. He has also averaged 132 laps led and 17 Stage Points in those three races. That is some domination at one of his home track. I had Hamlin penciled in for this race before the season started and I see no reason to change my pick now.
RYAN BLANEY (8): Blaney started out the season on fire. He finished 2nd at Atlanta, 3rd at Las Vegas and 5th at Phoenix. He has been in a slump in his last three races, but I am not worried about it. We saw Joey Logano go from a huge slump to finish 2nd last week at Richmond. Blaney should do the same Sunday. Blaney won the last race at Martinsville and he finished 7th, 3rd and 4th in the other three races using the Gen-7 car. I will take a chance with Blaney this week at one of his best tracks.
(OTHER PICK) KYLE LARSON (7): Larson said many times that he hates Martinsville. He then went out and won this race last year. Larson does not need to like the track, in order to win the race. Larson has finished 1st or 2nd in two of the last three races at Martinsville. There will be a good chance that Larson will be running up front Sunday. I need his allocations on the 1.5-mile tracks and in a few other races, so I will fade the No. 5 car this week.
GROUP A DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Denny Hamlin 2) Ryan Blaney 3) Kyle Larson 4) Martin Truex Jr. 5) Christopher Bell 6) Chase Elliott 7) William Byron 8) Kyle Busch
GROUP B DRIVERS
JOEY LOGANO (8): I thought about using Logano last week because Richmond is one of his best tracks. I just could not ignore the slump he was in, so I faded the No. 22 car. That was a mistake that I will not make twice. Logano is also good at Martinsville. He finished 5th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd in the four races using the Gen-7 car at Martinsville. Yes, that is 2nd-place finishes in both spring races at Martinsville. Logano also finished 2nd last week, so the slump may be over for the No. 22 team.
BUBBA WALLACE (9): The Toyota’s have been really good on the short, flat tracks this year, so I want some of them in my lineup. Wallace ran well last week at Richmond until his pit crew screwed up. He has also been good at Martinsville in the Gen-7 car. Wallace finished 11th, 9th and 8th in his last three races at Martinsville. The No. 23 car should run up front, score some Stage Points and finish in the top-10 Sunday.
TY GIBBS (8): We are at race No. 8 on the schedule and I have only used one allocation with Gibbs. I am not sure if that is a good thing or not, but I know it sets us up well for the rest of the season. The stats for Gibbs do not look great at Martinsville, but he qualified 2nd, finished 7th in Stage 1, 6th in Stage 2 and was dumped by Joey Logano while running 4th last year. The most similar track to Martinsville is the L.A. Coliseum. Gibbs dominated the Clash race this year, so he should be good this week.
JOSH BERRY (9): The popular pick here will be Brad Keselowski. There is no doubt that Keselowski has run well at Martinsville in his career, but his average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at the track is 27.5. I will fade Keselowski and pivot to the No. 4 car. Berry is a short track ace. This is his first Cup Series race at Martinsville, but he does have a Grandfather Clock from the Xfinity Series race at Martinsville. Berry ran well last week at Richmond. I think he will do it again at Martinsville. I will take a chance with the No. 4 car Sunday.
(OTHER PICK) ROSS CHASTAIN (8): You could use Brad Keselowski or Ross Chastain if you do not trust Josh Berry. Chastain has good stats at Martinsville, but is he really that good? Chastain has an average finishing position of 9th at Martinsville in the Gen-7 car. You have to remember that he used the “Hail Mellon” to go from 17th to 4th on the last lap in 2022. The average finishing position for Chastain would be 13th, if the “Hail Mellon” was outlawed at the time. Chastain is a good pick, but not a great pick this week.
GROUP B DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Joey Logano 2) Bubba Wallace 3) Ty Gibbs 4) Josh Berry 5) Brad Keselowski 6) Ross Chastain 7) Alex Bowman 8) Tyler Reddick
GROUP C DRIVERS
CHASE BRISCOE (8): I had Briscoe penciled in as my starter at Richmond and I erased it when he qualified 32nd. That was a mistake. I wrote his name in pen this week, because Martinsville is one of the best tracks for Briscoe. He led 109 laps, finished 5th in Stage 1, 2nd in Stage 2 and 5th in this race last year. Briscoe then showed up at Martinsville last October and qualified 3rd, finished 4th in Stage 1, 3rd in Stage 2 and 4th in the race. The stats for Briscoe are just too good to pass up Sunday.
RYAN PREECE (8): I am about 99% sure that I will use Chase Briscoe in my lineup Sunday. I need a driver who can score bonus points for winning the pole and be a decent pick if I have to use him in the race. Preece checks both boxes. He won the pole for this race last year. He also led 135 laps, won Stage 1 and finished 15th in the race. I never thought I would have three drivers from Stewart-Haas Racing in my lineup, but Martinsville has been one of their best tracks.
(OTHER CHOICE) TODD GILLILAND (8): Do you want to know a secret? Gilliland is having a good season. It would be even better if he could get any help from his pit crew. Gilliland has run up front in almost every race this year. His pit crew ranks No. 29 out of 36 teams. He just needs to stop loosing spots in the pits and he would be much better. Gilliland finished 10th, 25th and 13th in his last three races at Martinsville. He has the upside to finish in the top-15. I do not have the guts to play him, but Gilliland could be a sneaky good pick this week.
GROUP C DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Chase Briscoe 2) Ryan Preece 3) Noah Gragson 4) Carson Hocevar 5) Todd Gilliland
* Be sure to check back Sunday morning for my starting lineup.
TRUCK SERIES PICKS
XFINITY SERIES PICKS
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