The 2023 PGA Tour regular season has come to an end. It is now time for the 70 best golfers in the world to tee it up in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
The PGA Tour Playoffs will look different this year. The field this year will only include the top-70 golfers in the FedEx Playoff Standings (that is cut down from the 125-golfers they had in the field last year). The top-50 golfers will advance to the BMW Championship next week and the top-30 golfers will advance to the Tour Championship. Less golfers in the field, means a higher paycheck for each golfer teeing it up. It also means more duplicate lineups in our DFS contests.
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: St Jude History & Form
Course Breakdowns
TPC Southwind will be the first course in the playoff rotation. The course is a par 70 which plays 7,245 yards. Accuracy from tee to green will be important this week because there is a lot of water on this course. No course on tour has seen as many balls in the water since 2003 as TPC Southwind. Golfers who can bomb it off the tee can take some of the water out of play. Scoring is usually down here so we want to fill our lineups with golfers who are accurate off the tee and accurate on their approach shots. Bogey Avoidance will be a key stat this week.
This course plays long. There are eight holes which are par 4s and play over 450 yards. Length off the tee is important but keeping it straight is the key to keeping the ball out of the water. Shots Gained Off-the-Tee is another key stat we need to focus on this week.
The greens this week are Bermuda grass. I will be looking at Stoke Gained Putting-Bermuda Grass this week.
Click here to see the course: TPC Southwind
KEY STATS FOR ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP
– Strokes Gained Off the Tee
– Strokes Gained Approach
– Par 4 Scoring 450 – 500 Yards
– Strokes Gained Putting-Bermuda
– Birdie or Better %
TOP 30 GOLFERS
STRATEGY FOR THE ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP
There is no cut this week or for any of the tournaments in the FedEx Playoffs. That means we know we will get four rounds from each golfers. The field is stacked, since only the top-70 golfers on the PGA Tour are playing the St. Jude Championship. That means, even the lowest priced golfers are in play this week.
This tournament is very top heavy. It may be hard to win without a couple of the golfers priced over $10K in your lineup. My strategy for both Cash Contests and Tournament Contests this week is to build “stars and scrubs” lineups. Even the cheapest golfers in this field are some of the best golfers in the world. That means you will essentially be building “stars and stars” lineups, even though three of your golfers will be very cheap. I will build my lineups around “The Big Three” (Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm) and fill in the rest with golfers who are in good form.
I am not worried about the price this week. I am focused on performance. I want golfers who rank highly in the key stats and are in good form. I will jam as many of these golfers into my lineup as possible and if there is some salary left on the table, so be it. I do know I will be paying up for Scottie Scheffler in most of my lineups. He is just too good to fade this week.
CORE GOLFERS FOR ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER ($11,200): I will pay up for Scheffler this week as the leader of my Cash Contest lineup. This dude has just been too good and too consistent to fade right now. Scheffler ranks No. 2 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 2 in Shots Gained Off-the –Tee, No. 1 in Shots Gained Approach, and No. 4 in Scrambling. Schefflers wins this tournament easily, if he can putt this week.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD ($9,100): Fleetwood enters the FedEx Playoffs in terrific form. He finished 10th in the Open Championship, 6th in the Scottish Open, 5th in the U.S. Open and 2nd in the Canadian Open. Fleetwood ranks No. 4 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 2 in Shots Gained Approach and No. 4 overall in the key stats. I expect Fleetwood to make a long run in the playoffs and it will start with a top-finish in the St. Jude Championship.
TOM KIM ($7,800): Kim injured his ankle before the final round of the Open Championship. That forced him to WD last week. I am not worried about it at all. Kim went out and shot a 67 on his bad ankle in the Open Championship. He now has three weeks of rest. Kim is an elite ball-striker, who should score well this week. He is the most miss-priced golfer in DK Contests for the St. Jude Championship.
J.T. POSTON ($7,300): This seems like a setup…. Poston enters the FedEx Playoffs after finishing four of his last five tournaments in the top-seven. He is due for a let-down, but there is no cut this week. Poston has a great chance to finish in the top-10 if he can continue his hot form. He ranks No. 7 in the key stats, so getting Poston for $7,300 seems like a bargain.
STEPHAN JAEGER ($7,300): I am using the golfers who are in good form entering the FedEx Playoffs and Jaeger checks the box. He has made every cut on the PGA Tour since early March. Jaeger ranks No. 13 in key stats, so his price does not match his play. Jaeger may not win, but he should have a good chance to finish in the top-15.
ANDREW PUTNAM ($6,400): Putnam is not only a “horse for the course”, he is also in decent form. Putnam finished 5th in the St. Jude Championship last year and 2nd in 2018. Putnam has made seven cuts in a row on the PGA Tour, so his form is much better than most of the golfers priced in the $6K range. TPC Southwind is a second-shot course. Putnam ranks No. 11 in Shots Gained Approach. He should be one of the best value picks on the slate this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
RORY MCILROY ($11,500): McIlroy seems more motivated this year after he stopped worrying about the LIV Tour. He enters the FedEx Playoffs after finishing 6th in the Open Championship, won the Scottish Open, 7th at the Travelers Championship and 2nd in the U.S. Open. McIlroy ranks No. 2 behind Scottie Scheffler in the key stats this week. McIlroy should have a great chance to start the FedEx Playoffs with a win Sunday.
JON RAHM ($11,100): The only thing better than having a stud golfer in your lineup is having two studs leading you to the pay-window. Rahm started off the 2023 season as the best golfer on the PGA Tour. He then cooled down for a bit and now he is rested and ready to win. Rahm finished 2nd in the Open Championship and 10th in the U.S. Open. He finished 5th in this tournament last year. Rahm should finish in the top-five again Sunday.
SEPP STRAKA ($7,700): Straka won the John Deere Classic and then finished 2nd the next week at the Open Championship. He missed the cut in his next tournament (the 3M Open), but I will chalk that up to fatigue, since he was flying back and forth across the ocean. Strake finished 2nd in this tournament last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-five if he can find the form he had last month and play the course like he did last year.
EMILIANO GRILLO ($7,100): I debated between Cameron Davis and Grillo for this pick. The stats suggest that Davis is the better pick, but when you dig deeper, I like Grillo. Most of the approach shots this week will be from 150-175 yards. Grillo ranks No. 2 in the field from that rank. His only downside in his career has been his inability to sink putts. Grillo enters the tournament ranked No. 15 in Shots Gained Putting. I doubt Grillo will be highly owned, so I will give him a shot this week.
LEE HODGES ($6,500): Hodges had to withdrawal from the Wyndham Championship because he was sick. He has not had three weeks to recover, so he should be fine. Hodges won the last tournament he played (the 3M Open) and he finished 13th in this tournament last year. Hodges could be the best play in the field if he can strike the ball like he did at the 3M Open and like he did at the St. Jude Championship last year.
SAM RYDER ($6,000): There is no cut this week, so why not use a golfer at the minimum price? Ryder enters the FedEx Playoffs after finished 7th in the 3M Open and 38th in the Wyndham Championship. Ryder ranks No. 20 in the field in Shots Gained Approach. I do not expect much from Ryder this week, but there are a few stats which suggest Ryder could finish in the top-30. That is good enough at his minimum price.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (FantasyRacingTips Tournament lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the 10th tournament of Segment 4. The final three tournaments are going to have stacked fields. Just play the best golfers you can because there is no guarantee they will be in the field next week.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: SAM BURNS (ST. JUDE)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Denny McCarthy (MC), Cameron Young (MC), Dustin Johnson (MC), Matthew Fitzpatrick (MC), Russell Henley (35th), Rickie Fowler (Win), Scottie Scheffler (4), Brooks Koepka (17th), Justin Rose (8th), Patrick Cantlay (30TH) (Memorial), Tommy Fleetwood (MC), Jon Rahm (50th), Adam Scott (8th), Viktor Hovland (43rd), Tony Finau (Win), Sungjae Im (7TH), Jordan Spieth (4th), Si Woo Kim (39th), Tyrrell Hatton (60th), Adam Hadwin (MC), Rory McIlroy (MC), Will Zalatoris (53rd), Matt Kuchar (MC), Tony Finau (20), Xander Schauffele (10th), Seamus Power (15th), Max Homa (1st), Brian Harman (MC), and Corey Conners (12th)
SEASON LONG ONE & DONE PICK: SAM BURNS (ST. JUDE)
Players Used This Season in One & Done: J.T. Posoton (7th), Sepp Straka (MC), Collin Morikawa (MC), Matthew Fitzpatrick (MC), Emiliano Grillo (MC), Rickie Fowler (Win), Scottie Scheffler (4), Dustin Johnson (10th), Justin Rose (8TH), Patrick Cantlay (30TH), Tommy Fleetwood (MC), Brooks Koepka (Win), K-H Lee (50th), Cameron Young (59th), Tony Finau (Win), Keith Mitchell (6th), Tom Kim (MC), Brooks Koepka (2nd), Matt Kuchar (3rd), Wyndham Clark (6th), Adam Hadwin (MC), Rory McIlroy (MC), Will Zallatoris (53rd), Sungjae Im (42nd), Max Homa (2), Xander Schauffele (10th), Jordan Spieth (63rd), Jon Rahm (7th), Taylor Montgomery (5th), Russell Henley (32nd), Seamus Power (25th), Brian Harman (2nd), Maverick McNealy (27th), Emiliano Grillo (42nd), Nick Hardy (28th), Terrell Hatton (13TH) Christian Bezuidenhout (29th), Cameron Davis (37th), Denny McCarthy (39th), Brendon Steele (MC)
BEST BETS FOR ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP
TOMMY FLEETWOOD (25-1)
RICKIE FOWLER (28-1)
SAM BURNS (30-1)
TOM KIM (35-1)
BRYAN HARMAN (40-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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