The PGA Tour travels to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week for THE PLAYERS. This tournament is considered “The Fifth Major” on the PGA Tour schedule, but does is that name still true. If THE PLAYERS is truly the “Fifth Major”, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has to be “The Sixth Major.” The tournament last week was tougher than what we will see this week, but it should still be a great tournament with 48 of the top-50 golfers in the World Golf Rankings teeing it up Thursday. This tournament should be…..”Better than most…”
COURSE BREAKDOWN
THE PLAYERS will be played at TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, just outside of Jacksonville, Florida. This is a Pete Dye designed course and that means it will be challenging for every type of golfer. The course plays 7,275 yards and is a par 72. There are water hazards and bunkers all over the course so accurate hitters will be rewarded. The four par 5s are really long so the bombers will be rewarded on these holes. You do not need to be a bomber to win though. Accuracy is the most important stat this week. The greens are typically fast and tend to roll out three to four feet further than the golfers are used to. The golfers will need to be accurate on their approach shots or they better have a red hot flat stick. Golfers need to be in great form and have all aspects of their game clicking if they want a chance to win THE PLAYERS.
Click here to see the course: TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course
KEY STATS FOR THE PLAYERS
– Strokes Gained Total (Pete Dye Courses)
– Boogey Avoidance
– Driving Accuracy %
– Greens in Regulation %
– Comp Course History (Harbour Tour, Stadium Course, TPC River Highlands, Copper Head)
* We want golfers who hit the fairway off the tee and hit the green with the irons. Golfers who are wild will be in BIG TROUBLE at TPC Sawgrass.
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
CORE GOLFERS FOR THE PLAYERS
THE PLAYERS STRATEGY
THE PLAYERS is the toughest tournament of the year to win in Cash Contests because there is so much volatility in the tournament. There is so much water and so many tough holes, that no one is safe from blowing up their scorecards. I am scaling back my Cash Contest play this week and using my bankroll for more Tournament Contests. I will use the golfers who rank highly in accuracy off-the-tee and greens in regulation for my Cash Contest lineups this week.
The field is back to 144 golfers and the top 65 and ties will make the cut. DraftKings is back to including the $5K in their price structure this week. They key to winning our Tournament Contests is to pair the high priced golfers who finish at the top of the leaderboard with the cheap golfers who make the cut and finish in the top-40. I will be building my Tournament Contests this week using a “stars and scrubs” approach.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
COLLIN MORIKAWA ($10,500): Morikawa checks all of the stats this week. He ranks No. 1 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 2 in SG Approach and No. 1 overall in the Key Stats. He finished 2nd last week, so the form is there and he has made the cut in three of his four trips to TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa is my pick to win, so I will have him at the top of my Cash Contest lineup.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD ($9,800): No player in the field is as good as Fleetwood at back-dooring a top-five finish. He usually sits between 10th and 15th for the first three rounds and then on Sunday we say, “How did Fleetwood finish 5th?” His ball-striking is elite and so is his course history. Fleetwood is a safe player for our Cash Contest lineups.
SEPP STRAKA ($8,600): Straka should be priced at $10,500 based on his form and stats. He leads the tour in SG Total since the beginning of the 2025 season. Straka won the American Express (Ball-Strikers Tournament), finished 7th at the signature event at Pebble Beach, 11th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and 5th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Straka also finished 16th last year and 9th in 2022 at THE PLAYERS. He is playing too well right now to fade.
JASON DAY ($8,100): Day is one of my favorite golfers, so I will be cheering for him to win Sunday. Day won THE PLAYERS in 2016, finished 5th in 2018 and 8th in 2019. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight trips to TPC Sawgrass. Day has made every cut this year and that includes an 8th-place finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. There is a good chance that we see Day near the top of the leaderboard again Sunday.
CHRISTIAN BEZUIDENHOUT ($7,100): I used C-Bez last week because he is one of the best players on the PGA Tour on tough courses. He does not score a lot of birdies, but he does not score a lot of bogies as well. He also ranks No. 3 in SG Putting on Bermuda Greens. C-Bez has made 9/10 cuts this year. He should play all four rounds this week, with top-10 upside.
MICHAEL KIM ($5,900): Welcome to “Michael Kim Chalk Week.” Kim ranks No. 4 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 3 in SG Approach, No. 9 in Scrambling and No. 5 overall in the Key Stats. That is pretty damn good for $5,900. He also finished 2nd at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, 13th at the Genesis Invitational (Signature Event), 13th at the Mexico Open, 6th at the Cognizant Classic and 4th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (Signature Event). Kim should be priced in the $9K range based on his form, so I will take the discount this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMNET CONTEST
LUDVIG ABERG ($10,200): I played Aberg last week and I was expecting a lot more than a 22nd-place finish. He shot 77 on Saturday and that ruined his tournament. Aberg wasn’t too bad in the other three rounds. He made his first trip to THE PLAYERS last year and finished 8th. He is pretty good at avoiding the water, so I will play Aberg at the top of my Tournament Contest lineup.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA ($9,900): Big names typically show up at the top of the leaderboard at THE PLAYERS and I would not be surprised to see Matsuyama holding the trophy Sunday. He has made every cut this year (9 for 9) and he finished three of his last four tournaments at TPC Sawgrass in the top-10. It is tough to find safe golfers at THE PLAYERS, but Matsuyama is one of the safest in the field this week.
DANIEL BERGER ($9,900): Berger got off to a horrible start when he shot a 78 in round one last week. He ranked No. 2 in the field to Collin Morikawa in SG Tee-to-Green in the final three rounds. I just need Berger to carry over his momentum from the final three rounds to his start at THE PLAYERS. Berger has made every cut at THE PLAYERS since 2015. He should be a good play again this week.
RUSSELL HENLEY ($9,500): The narrative in Fantasy Golf is to fade a golfer after his wins (especially if he hasn’t won in a long time). Henley is not the type of golfer who is going to over-celebrate his win. I am sure he was right back to work Monday. His accuracy and his ability to putt on Bermuda Greens make Henley a strong play this week. I hope the rest of the field fade Henley, because I think he will continue to post top scores in Florida.
NICOLAI HOJGAARD ($5,700): I had a hard time decide between Alex Smalley and Hojgaard this week. Both are fantastic plays, but I think Hojgaard offers a bit more upside. He ranks No. 9 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 6 in SG Approach, No. 17 in SG Putting Bermuda Greens, No. 5 in Bogey Avoidance and No. 7 overall in the key stats. That is awesome for $5,700. He finished 8th at the Mexico Open and 18th at the Cognizant Classic over the last month. Hojgaard should be a great “punt play” in Florida.
JOEL DAHMEN ($5,100): Dahmen has a history of popping up at the top of the leaderboard when no one expects it and I have a habit of getting Dahmen right in my DFS lineups. He has made three cuts in a row at THE PLAYERS and that includes an 11th-place finish last week. Dahmen also just finished 6th in the Mexico Open. Dahmen should make the cut and easily return value this week.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the first tournament in Segment 2. We have THE PLAYERS, the Masters and the PGA Championship in this Segment. This is the toughest Segment to navigate, so use your golfers wisely.
** I am fading Scottie Scheffler because this tournament has the most randomness. He will be a safer play at the Masters, the RBC Heritage (Signature Event), the Memorial and Truist Championship (Signature Event)
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (PLAYERS)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Rory McIlroy (15th), Shane Lowry (11TH), Akshay Bhatia (9TH), Collin Morikawa (17th), Tom Kim (44th), Patrick Cantlay (33rd), Jason Day (32nd), Sungjae Im (MC), Corey Conners (MC)
* This is the highest purse of the season, so I will play my top golfer.
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (PLAYERS)
– One & Done picks used so far this season: Ludvig Aberg (22nd), Daniel Berger (25TH), Patrick Rodgers (25TH), Taylor Pendrith (50th), Nick Taylor (25th), Collin Morikawa (17th), Jason Day (32nd), Russell Henley (10th), (Sungjae Im (3rd), Ben Griffin (15th), Nico Echavarria (29TH), Harris English (14TH), Beau Hossler (56TH), Tom Kim (MC), Keith Mitchell (MC), Ben Griffin (37th)
BEST BETS FOR THE PLAYERS
TOMMY FLEETWOOD (28-1)
SHANE LOWRY (40-1)
SEPP STRAKA (50-1)
COREY CONNERS (55-1)
JASON DAY (60-1)
DANIEL BERGER (60-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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