Phoenix Raceway is the next track on the Cup Series schedule. This is a one-mile, D-shaped oval that allows the drivers to take a short cut through the front-stretch to try and gain track position. There are two races each year in Phoenix and they are completely different. The first race has seen many different winners in Victory Lane. The Championship Race in November is dominated by the four drivers competing for a championship and is often won by a Team Penske driver. It will be fun to see how the race plays out this week in Phoenix. The Shriners Children’s 500 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR brought an “option tire” to the track this week. This tire is softer and provides more speed early in the run, but it will wear out fast. Teams get two sets of the option tire and they can use it whenever they want to. The teams will likely use this tire to gain track position to score Stage Points and at the end of the race to make a run for the checkered flag. Just when we thought we were going to get an easy race to predict, NASCAR brings a gimmick to the track to create closer racing. I am not worried about the tire Sunday. I am simply selecting the best drivers possible and let the race play out as it may.
The teams got some extra track time to figure out the “option tire” Saturday. The teams had 45-minutes to make some long runs to see how the tires will wear in the race. Some of the lap times we skewed depending on when the teams used the option tires in practice and how much rubber was already laid down on the track. The temperature is forecasted to be at least 10 degrees higher Sunday, so the track will be slicker. I doubt we will learn much from practice Saturday.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Phoenix Raceway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 312 laps (312 miles). That means there are 78 points available for leading laps and 140.4 points available for fastest laps (218.4 dominator points). The race last year had five dominators and the spring race in 2023 had four dominators. I think we will have at least four dominators Sunday, especially with the “option tire” in play. The main dominator leads roughly 68 laps and scores 33 fastest laps (31.85 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 68 laps and scores 26 fastest laps (28.7 dominator points). The third dominator leads roughly 54 laps and scores 43 fastest laps (32.85 dominator points) and the last dominator leads roughly 50 laps and scores 54 fastest laps (36.8 dominator points). I want as many of these potential dominators in my lineup so I will be paying up for the top drivers Sunday, even if I need to have two scrubs at the bottom of my lineup.
DFS STATS FOR PHOENIX
The best way to predict the future is it analyzes the past. The first race at Phoenix is more random than the Championship Race in November. We have had three different drivers; from three different teams win the first race in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix (Chase Briscoe in 2022, William Byron in 2023 and Christopher Bell in 2024). I expect many lead changes Sunday because of the option tire and we can figure out who those leaders might be by looking at the past stats from the races at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car.
Here are the average DraftKings Points at Phoenix using the Gen-7 car…
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron won the spring race in Phoenix in 2023 and he should have a good chance to get back to Victory Lane Sunday. Byron won the Daytona 500. That means the he has a win in his pocket and the No. 24 team can take some chances with the option tire to get Byron some track position and another win. Byron always starts the season off on a hot streak. The 2025 season is no different.
CHASE BRISCOE ($9,000): Briscoe proved he could win at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car when he went to Victory Lane in 2022. Briscoe did not look great in practice but he drives for Joe Gibbs Racing. I trust their engineers to get the car fixed up for the race, even if Briscoe has to drop to the back. The No. 19 car should score a lot of place differential points from the 30th starting position Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,800): Chastain won the race at Phoenix in 2023 and he finished 6th in the spring race last year. Phoenix is the best short, flat track for Chastain and it looks like the No. 1 team unloaded with some speed again this weekend. Chastain did not have a lot of single-lap speed, but he was fourth-fastest in practice on the long runs. Chastain starts 24th and he has an average finishing position of 9th in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. Chastain should score well for your DFS lineup Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,800): This is a home race for Bowman and he will get some extra seat time. Bowman is competing in the Xfinity Series race Saturday, so hopefully that extra track time will help Bowman find his groove at Phoenix. Getting a Hendrick Motorsports car for a mid-$7K price seems too good to pass up this week. It also helps that Bowman starts 32nd and has nowhere to go but forward in the race.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,300): Wallace said after the race at Atlanta that he is finally starting to figure out the Gen-7 car. Maybe that will lead to some surprise finishes from Wallace and make him a good sleeper pick for your DFS lineups. He finished 7th, 16th, 10th and 14th in his last four races at Phoenix (11.75 average finishing position). I doubt Wallace will finish in the top-five, but he has the speed to finish in the top-10 this week from the 19th starting position.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,100): Suarez better get his shit together fast or he may be looking for a new ride. Just Marks said on Sirius XM NASCAR Channel this week, “It will not be not before Connor Zilisch is a full-time driver in the Cup Series.” That likely means Saurez is on the hot seat. Phoenix has been a decent track for Suarez. He finished 10th, 13th and 11th in his last three races in the desert. Suarez should have a decent chance to finish in the top-15 from the 31st starting position Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
JOEY LOGANO ($10,200): Logano leads the Cup Series with two wins in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. Both of his wins have come in the Championship Race, but the No. 22 car looks fast this weekend. Logano posted the third-fastest speed on the 20 and 30 lap average speed chart in practice and qualified on the front row for the race. I will play Logano as a pivot from William Byron and hope Logsano can lead some laps. No driver in the field has led as many laps as Logano in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,200): Reddick often gets overlooked by Fantasy NASCAR players at Phoenix and that could be a mistake. Reddick finished both races at Phoenix in the top-10 last year and he finished 3rd in the spring race in 2023. Reddick led 68 laps, scored 19 Stage Points and finished 10th in this race last year. The No. 45 car was fast enough Saturda to have a similar race Sunday.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,600): Busch sucked at Phoenix last year, but I am not worried about it. He started off the season red hot in 2023 and I think he may do it again in 2025. Busch finished seventh at Atlanta and he had the best car in the field last week at COTA. I doubt Busch will have a lot of ownership. I will take a chance with Rowdy this weekend.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,400): Buescher has been a good sleeper pick at Phoenix and the race Sunday should be no different. He finished 9th, 2nd and 5th in his last three races at this track. The No. 17 car posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice and qualified 13th for the race. This should be a good race to take a chance with Buescher in your DFS lineups.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,000): Keselowski has been hit or miss at Phoenix, so he is a better play for Tournament Contest lineups. Keselowski finished 4th in the first race at Phoenix last year and then 15th in the Championship Race. This is simply an ownership play. The No. 6 car should have low ownership and some upside Sunday, so I will take a chance with Keselowski Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,600): I like playing Gilliland when he starts in the back. His team gambled a lot last year with tires to get track position. That is what they did at Phoenix last year and it allowed Gilliland to lead 14 laps and score some dominator points and 15 place differential points. I expect they will gamble with the option tire and it will allow Gilliland to steal some more points Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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