The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Austin, Texas to race at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). This is the first of five road courses on the 2026 season. Our goal in the drafting tracks races (Daytona and Atlanta) was to simply survive and not start the season in a deep hole. The picks outscored 70.3% of the entries, so we are sitting in a good spot to make a run to the top of our league standings. First, we need to get through another “wild card race” at Cota.
STRATEGY FOR COTA
Shane van Gisbergen is going to be in almost every lineup this week. That means we have to beat our competition with only four starting drivers. There will be people in your league who fade the top drivers to use road course experts like AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher. These are fine picks, but I am not worried about allocations. I am worried about scoring points. There are about 15 drivers who have a good chance to finish in the top-10 each week.That means we can make it through the season even if we run out of our top drivers. Remember, we only need 130 allocations to get us through all 26 races. That means we need to stick to the top-13 drivers in the Cup Series for our picks.
Here are the picks for the race at COTA…
TYLER REDDICK (10): Momentum is real in NASCAR and Reddick has it. He won the first two races of the season (Daytona and Atlanta) and he has a good chance to win again Sunday. Reddick finished 3rd, 5th, 1st, 5th and 9th in his five starts at this track. Reddick starts from the pole with the No. 1 pit stall. He should lead score a lot of Stage Points and don’t be surprised to see Reddick celebrating with Michael Jordan in Victory Lane again Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN (10): Chastain looked good last week in Atlanta and he could be even better this week at COTA. Chastain won at COTA in 2022 and his average finishing position at this track is 5.6. Chastain also has Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch to share notes with this week. Chastain often gets overlooked on the road course tracks. That could be a mistake at COTA. You cannot have too many Trackhouse Racing drivers in your lineup this week, so I will take a chance with Chastain in Austin.
CHASE ELLIOT (9): Elliott used to be the best driver on the road courses in the old car. The secret to his success was his ability to save his tires over the long runs. NASCAR switched to the 750 HP for the race Sunday. That means the tires will wear out quickly and this race should play into the hands of Elliott. He is a good pick from the 5th starting position.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (10): Bell won at COTA last year and he finished 2nd in 2024. Bell is quickly becoming one of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. Bell finished 3rd at the Charlotte Roval, 2nd at Watkins Glen, 5th at Sonoma, 2nd in Mexico City and 1st at COTA last year. The secret to his success is his skill behind the wheel and Adams Stevens decision making on top of the pit box. Bell should be a threat to finish in the top-five again Sunday, with the upside to win his second race at the track.
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN (10): COTA ranks as the worst road course track for SVG. He finished 20th in 2024 and 6th last year. Do we really think SVG is going to struggle in Austin? He has won five road course races in a row. SVG led the second-most laps, scored the most Stage Points and had the best Driver Rating at COTA last year. He is just too good on the road courses to fade this weekend.
(GARAGE PICK) WILLIAM BYRON (10): Byron has been one of the best drivers at COTA. He won the race in 2024 and he finished 2nd last year. His 2.6 average finishing position in the last three races at COTA is the best in the Cup Series. I thought about using Michael McDowell or AJ Allmendinger in the Garage, but I need a driver who I can trust. Byron will be my insurance policy Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.