The drafting track portion of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule is completed and now it is time to go road course racing at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). The picks have been really close to hitting big, but the DFS Contests on the drafting tracks are about 50% luck. We did not have luck on our side in the first two races, but we should not need it as much at COTA. There are a handful of drivers who have mastered this track and we should have a good chance of cashing our lineups if we simply stick to these drivers. Now, onto the picks for the DuraMAX Grand Prix….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series drivers did not have any track time before the race last week at Atlanta. That is not the case this week at COTA. The Cup Series got 50-minutes to dial in their cars for the race Sunday. COTA is a 231.88 mile track with a lot of elevation changes. NASCAR is using the 750 HP package this weekend. That means the tires will wear-out quickly. We will have to use the 10 lap average speeds for our picks at COTA, but qualifying speed is the most important. About half of the drivers who start in the top-10, finish the race in the top-10 at COTA.
Here are the practice speeds from Saturday’s practice session at COTA….
FANTASY STATS FOR COTA
COTA is a unique road course for the Cup Series. The track was built for F1 Racing and not heavy stockcars. Turns 1, 11 and 12 put a lot of strain on the brakes. There is also a 133-foot climb into a blind turn 1 to start the race. COTA is one of the more technical tracks on the road course schedule. It is similar to Sonoma because of the elevation changes and the tight turns. I used the data from the last three races at COTA and combined it with the data from the last race at Sonoma and Watkins Glen for the stats this week. This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at COTA and which drivers are good on the technical road course tracks in the Cup Series.
Here are the driver’s stats from COTA and the other technical road courses sorted by DraftKings Points…
STRATEGY FOR COTA
The “Balanced” approach strategy is statistically the more reliable play, though fading Shane van Gisbergen requires nerves of steel. Here is a technical breakdown of why Balanced ($9K–$7K) typically beats Stars & Scrubs (SVG + $5K) on road courses like COTA.
- The “Dominator” Math (Laps Led & Fastest Laps)
On oval tracks (like Bristol or Martinsville), there are 400–500 laps. This creates a massive pool of “dominator points” (0.25 pts per lap led / 0.45 pts per fastest lap). In those races, you must pay for the leaders. The race at COTA is only 95 laps.
Total Dominator Points Available: Even if a driver like SVG leads every single lap and sets every fastest lap, he would only earn roughly 66.5 bonus points (23.75 for laps led + 42.75 for fastest laps).
The Reality: At COTA, strategy (pitting before stage ends) often cycles the lead. Last year’s winner only led about 15% of the race. If SVG leads 30 laps and finishes 1st, he’s scoring around 80–90 total points. A $7,500 driver who starts 25th and finishes 8th (Place Differential) will score roughly 65 points for almost half the salary.
- The Danger of the $5K-$6K “Scrubs”
In a 750 hp package with high tire wear, the “scrubs” are at a massive disadvantage.
Skill Gap: Road racing is high-skill. On ovals, a cheap driver can stay on the lead lap via “the draft.” At COTA, a $5,000 driver is likely to go off-course, miss a shifting point, or burn through their tires in the first 10 laps.
DNFs: Small teams often struggle with brake cooling and transmission heat at COTA. If your $5,000 “scrub” breaks a transaxle on lap 20, your SVG pick has to score a perfect race just to keep your lineup average afloat.
- Why the “Balanced” Range is the “Sweet Spot”
The $7,500 – $9,200 range this weekend is loaded with drivers who have “Top 5” ceilings:
Alex Bowman ($7,800): He has a Top 5 average finish at COTA. He provides “Elite” performance at a “Mid-tier” price.
Chris Buescher ($8,300: As discussed, he is a long-run specialist. He often starts mid-pack (giving you Place Differential points) and finishes in the Top 10.
Ross Chastain ($9,100): A former winner here who is aggressive enough to pick up “Fastest Lap” bonuses during his charges through the field.
Go BALANCED if: You are playing in a “Cash Game” (Double-Ups or 50/50s). You want a high floor. A lineup of five drivers who all finish between 5th and 15th will almost always win these contests because they avoid the “landmines” of the $5,000 price range.
Go STARS & SCRUBS (SVG + Punts) if: You are playing in a large GPP (Tournament) with thousands of entries. To win the top prize, you need the “perfect” lineup. If SVG wins by 10 seconds and leads 60+ laps, you almost have to have him. In this case, you “punt” with a driver like Todd Gilliland or Riley Herbst (who are decent road racers in cheaper equipment) and hope they just survive to a 20th-place finish.
WINNING LINEUPS AT COTA 2022-2025
I was shocked to see that William Byron, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman and Kyle Busch were in the winning lineup the last two years. You would have won a lot of money by simply playing the winning lineup from 2024 in last year’s race. I was also surprised to see that Shane van Gisbergen has raced twice at COTA and he wasn’t in the winning lineup in either race. The most frequent drivers in the winning lineups were Alex Bowman (4 for 4), William Byron (3 for 4), Kyle Busch (3 for 4) and Christopher Bell (2 for 4). The lineups did not leave a lot of salary on the table, like we had at the drafting tracks. Do not be afraid to use most of the $50K for the race at COTA.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron has been one of the best drivers at COTA. He won the race in 2024 and he finished 2nd last year. His 2.6 average finishing position in the last three races at COTA is the best in the Cup Series. I thought about playing Tyler Reddick in this position, but he has some risk in Cash Contests since Reddick starts on the pole. Byron has a good chance to score place differential points, dominator points and finish in the top-five. That would make him one of the best picks on the slate Sunday.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($9,800): Bell won at COTA last year and he finished 2nd in 2024. Bell is quickly becoming one of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. Bell finished 3rd at the Charlotte Roval, 2nd at Watkins Glen, 5th at Sonoma, 2nd in Mexico City and 1st at COTA last year. The secret to his success is his skill behind the wheel and Adams Stevens’ decision making on top of the pit box. Bell should be a threat to finish in the top-five again Sunday, with the upside to win his second race at the track.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,300): I need a safe driver to get me a top-10 finish with top-five upside. Look no further than Buescher. He has the second-best average finishing position (behind Shane van Gisbergen) on the road courses over the last three seasons. Buescher has finished his last three races at COTA in the top-10. Buescher starts 14 with a great chance to finish in the top-10.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,000): Busch is a lock for all Cash Contest lineups. Busch dominated the race at COTA last year. He led 42 of the 95 laps, finished 4th in both Stages and he finished 5th in the race. Busch also finished 9th at COTA in 2024 and 2nd in 2023. Busch posted the 6th-fastest speed in practice and then he missed a turn on his qualifying lap. Busch starts 30th and he has top-10 speed.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,800): Bowman has been “Mr. Consistent” at COTA. He finished 9th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in his five races at COTA. Bowman doesn’t always qualify up front at COTA, but he is one of the best at moving through the field to get to the top-10. Bowman leads the Cup Series in green flag passes at this track over the last three seasons. Bowman has been in the winning lineup every year at COTA, so I will take a chance with him extending his streak Sunday.
NOAH GRAGSON ($5,900): Gragson was in the winning lineup at COTA last year. He started 17th, finished 8th and scored 45 DK Points. Can he do it again? I think he can. Gragson starts 35th and his average finishing position at COTA is 21st. He will score 14 place differential points if he simply finishes at his average. Gragson is a safe play for Cash Contest lineups.
* I also like Connor Zilisch for Cash Contests, but his price is too steep. I just could not create a lineup I liked with Zilisch in it.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): I know Byron will be popular, but there aren’t any good pivots that are going to be lower owned to use in this lineup. Byron did not look blazing fast in practice, but he seldom does at COTA. Crew chief Rudy Fuggle is one of the best at making adjustments and using pit strategy to get Byron up front. He is one of the safest picks in the field at COTA.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,500): Momentum is real in NASCAR and Reddick has it. He won the first two races of the season (Daytona and Atlanta) and he has a good chance to win again Sunday. Reddick finished 3rd, 5th, 1st, 5th and 9th in his five starts at this track. Reddick won the pole, led 41 laps and scored 62 DraftKings points in 2023. He should have a similar race Sunday.
KYLE LARSON ($9,200): I used Larson last week as a contrarian play and it almost worked about perfectly. He was only 18% owned in my contest and the No. 5 car looked like it was going to lead the most laps and win race. I will go back to Larson this week. I expect everyone will play Shane van Gisbergen, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. Larson has had nothing but bad luck at COTA. He did finish 2nd in this race in 2022. The move to the 750 HP package should play into the hands of Larson because he is very good at saving his tire over a long run.
CHASE ELLIOT ($9,000): Elliott used to dominate all of the road course races in the previous generation of the Cup Series car. The reason he was so good is because Elliott was the best at saving his tires over the long run. The switch to 750 HP will make tire wear an issue Sunday. Elliott finished 4th in this race last year, 3rd in Mexico City, 3rd at Sonoma and 8th at the Charlotte Roval. The No. 9 car has enough speed and Elliott has enough talent to finish in the top-five Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN ($7,100): This may be the cheapest we see Hamlin’s price all season. I know he is not very good on the road courses, but he is not that bad. His ownership is going to be a lot lower than it should. I am playing Hamlin because of the 750 HP and how important tire conservation will be in this race. I just have a feeling Hamlin is going to surprise people with a top-10 finish Sunday. I could be completely wrong, but for $7,100, I’ll take a chance.
RILEY HERBST ($4,900): I need a “punt play” for this lineup, so I will take a chance with Herbst. He hasn’t been very good on the oval tracks, but Herbst has had some success on the road courses. He started 31st and finished 17th in this race last year. He starts 32nd Sunday. Herbst will be a great pick if he can finish inside the top-20 again at COTA.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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