The Cup Series will race at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. My goal last week was to simply survive the race. Some of the drivers in the lineup ended up in the garage before the checkered flag waived, but the picks did not lose any ground in the overall standings. I will do my best to keep the picks climbing to the top after the Wurth 400 Sunday.
STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
I typically look forward to the races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks because they are the easiest to predict. That is not the case in Texas. This track is the most chaotic of the intermediate tracks. The bumps on this track usually cause a lot of cautions. We must look at the stats from Texas Motor Speedway and from the intermediate tracks in 2026 and pick the drivers who have had the most speed. After that, we will need a lot of luck because even the fastest cars blow up (Denny Hamlin last year), get penalties (Christopher Bell last year) or crash (Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Carson Hocevar, Brad Keselowski and more last year….).
Here are the picks for the race at Texas Motor Speedway…
CARSON HOCEVAR (8): Is it time for us to start classifying Hocevar with the elite drivers in the Cup Series? He finally broke his maiden last week at Talladega. He has run up front in almost every race this year. Hocevar had one of the fastest cars at Texas Motor Speedway last year. Spire Motorsports is even better in 2026. Hocevar won last week, he won the Truck Series race Friday night and he won the pole for Sunday’s race. That is a lot of winning. I trust Hocevar to finish up front at Texas Motor Speedway Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE (8): Briscoe has been at his best on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. He finished 8th in Las Vegas and 3rd at Kansas. He also has a history of running well in Texas. Briscoe finished 3 of his last 4 races at Texas Motor Speedway in the top-10. The No. 19 car has enough speed this weekend to run up front and score a lot of points for your Fantasy Live lineup.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (6): There is a lot to like about Bell this weekend. He finished 4th in Los Vegas and he had a great chance to win at Kansas until Tyler Reddick got into him in the final laps of that race. The races at Texas Motor Speedway tend to be filled with cautions. That means there will be a lot of pit stops. That favors Bell, because he has the best pit crew in the sport. He also has a fast car. I have no problem using another allocation with Bell in the Wurth 400 Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (6): How can we fade Reddick right now? He has been on fire this year, especially on the larger tracks. Reddick won the races at Darlington (another intermediate track) and Kansas Speedway. He has been the best Toyota at Texas Motor Speedway over the last two seasons. Reddick posted the 9th-fastest long-run speed in practice and the No. 45 car qualified 8th for the race. I want to play Reddick while he is running hot because there is no guarantee that he will be this good all season.
KYLE LARSON (5): You can never count out Larson at a 1.5-mile, intermediate track. Larson finished 7th in Las Vegas and 2nd at Kansas this year. He also led 90 laps, scored 17 Stage Points and finished 4th at Texas last year. Larson just tested on the 1.5-mile track at Chicagoland Speedway. I expect the No. 5 team learned something from that test that will allow the No. 5 car to have a good chance to win the Wurth 400.
(GARAGE PICK) WILLIAM BYRON (7): It has been a slow start for the No. 24 team this year. Byron sits 11th in the Point Standings, but the good news is that he has been good on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. Byron finished 3rd in Las Vegas and 7th at Kansas. Texas Motor Speedway ranks as his best intermediate track. Byron won at Texas in 2023 and finished 3rd in 2024. The No. 24 car posted the fastest speed in practice with the fastest long-run speed. I expect Byron to have one of his best races of the season Sunday.
* I would love to use DENNY HAMLIN, but I cannot use him every week. If you want to use Hamlin, use him over CHASE BRISCOE or CHRISTOPHER BELL (Whoever you need to save an allocation with.
** CHRIS BUESCHER should be a good pick but I faded him because his average finishing position in the last GEN-7 car are Texas is 19th.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.