The Cup Series travels to Texas Motor Speedway this week for the Wurth 400. There is a saying that “Everything is bigger in Texas.” That used to be true with the Cup Series race in the Lone Star State. The race at Texas Motor Speedway was reduced from 500 miles to 400 miles in 2023. That means this is a normal intermediate track race now. Or, is it? This track has more chaos and more leaders than any 1.5-mile track on the schedule. Will that trend continue this weekend? It should be fun to see how it all plays out. The Wurth 400 is scheduled for Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
FANTASY STATS FOR TEXAS
The Cup Series used to race at Texas Motor Speedway twice each season. That changed with the introduction of the Gen-7 car in 2022. Now the Cup Series only visits the track one each year. That means we have less data to work with. I will use the stats from the last three races at Texas Motor Speedway and combine them with the stats from the two races this season on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks (Las Vegas and Kansas). This should give us an idea of which drivers are good in the Lone Star State and which drivers have had the speed on the intermediate tracks in 2026.
Here are the driver’s stats from the last three races at Texas Motor Speedway and the races earlier this season at Las Vegas and Kansas, sorted by DFS Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal practice schedule for the Wurth 400. The teams were split into groups and they were allowed 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the race Sunday. There were some good drivers in the first group since many of them were involved in the “Big One” at Talladega. The track did not have as much grip in the first group, so there times were a bit slower. We need to remember this when we are looking at practice speeds this week.
So, how does practice speed at Texas translate into race speed? Only three drivers (Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon and Erik Jones) posted top-10 speed in practice and finished in the top-10. Only two drivers, who posted top-10 speed on the 10 lap average speed chart in practice last year, finished the race in the top-10 (Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson). I compared the practice speeds in 2024 to race speeds and it was about the same results as last year. We shouldn’t simply pick our drivers based on practice speed this weekend.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Texas Motor Speedway…
STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
The races at Texas Motor Speedway are not your typical 1.5-mile, intermediate track races. There is a lot more chaos at Texas because of the bumps in turns 1 and 2. Last year we had six drivers lead at least 19 laps and the main dominator led 90 laps. In 2024 we had five drivers lead at least 30 laps and the main dominator led 77 laps. Only one driver started in the top-10 and finished in the top-10 last year (Kyle Larson). In 2024, only four drivers started in the top-10 and finished in the top-10 (William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe and Bubba Wallace).
There will likely be five to six dominators in the race Sunday. The best strategy is to try and find at least three of those dominators and three drivers who can score place differential points for your DFS lineups. This was the winning strategy in the past and I expect the trend to continue this weekend.
WINNING LINEUPS AT TEXAS (2022-2025)
The race at Texas Motor Speedway is one of the toughest to predict because we do not have a group of drivers who dominate this track like we do at the other intermediate tracks. Each year it is a different group of drivers running up front.
We can look at the way the winning lineups are constructed to help us find the path to the top of our contests this weekend. The trend is to pick two drivers priced above $10K, one driver priced above $9K (these are our three dominators) and then select three drivers from the $8K and below price range who can score place differential points. The average salary spent on the winning lineups is $49,800, so do not leave too much salary on the table this week.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
RYAN BLANEY ($10,200): Texas Motor Speedway is the best intermediate track for Team Penske. Blaney won the race in Texas in 2022 and he finished 3rd last year. The No. 12 car posted the 11th fastest speed in practice and Blaney got loose in qualifying so now he starts 31st. The No. 12 team is too good to stay in the back the entire race. Blaney should score 20+ place differential points and score top-five points for your DFS Contest.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,000): There is a lot to like about Bell this weekend. He finished 4th in Los Vegas and he had a great chance to win at Kansas until Tyler Reddick got into him in the final laps of that race. The races at Texas Motor Speedway tend to be filled with cautions. That means there will be a lot of pit stops. That favors Bell, because he has the best pit crew in the sport. He also has a fast car. I have no problem paying up for Bell as my dominators in the Wurth 400 Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,000): Could Texas Motor Speedway be the track where Keselowski ends his 69-race winless streak? He has not won a race since Darlington in 2024. That could change Sunday. Keselowski has finished 28th (flat tire), 2nd, 7th, 8th, 9th, 4th, 2nd, 6th and 9th in his last nine races at Texas Motor Speedway. He also finished 10th in Las Vegas and 6th at Kansas earlier this year. Keselowski has the floor to finish in the top-10 and the upside to win the race Sunday in Texas.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,200): There is no doubt that Logano is at his best on the short tracks, but Texas Motor Speedway is the exception to the rule. Logano looked like trash in practice last year, he qualified 27th for the race and then he went to Victory Lane. He did the same thing in 2022 when he finished 2nd in 2022. Logano is good at finding speed during the race so I like his chances to score 13-15 place differential points Sunday.
AUSTIN DILLON ($6,500): It has been a struggle for Richard Childress Racing this year. Dillon is one of the only drivers in the Cup Series who has not finished in the top-10 this season. That could change Sunday. Dillon finished 7th at Texas last year, 8th in 2024 and 2nd in 2022. This is by far his best intermediate track on the schedule. I will trust the stats and take a chance with the No. 3 car Sunday.
ZANE SMITH ($5,900): Smith will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. You can use Smith or his teammate, Todd Gilliand. Both drivers are good plays from the back of the pack, but I trust Smith at Texas. He had a lot of success at Texas in the Truck Series he finished 17th in this race last year. Smith will be a great pick if he can finish 17th Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): What are we going to get out of Hamlin this week? He has been the best driver on the intermediate tracks this year. Hamlin won in Las Vegas and he led 131 laps and finished 4th at Kansas. Texas Motor Speedway has been his worst track in the Gen-7 car era. Hamlin has an average finishing position of 20.75 at Texas in the Gen-7 car. I hope those stats scare people away because most of those results were not Hamlin’s fault. He had an engine blow up last year and he was involved in a wreck (not his fault) in 2024. I will take a chance with Hamlin as my top dominator because the stats are misleading this week.
TYLER REDDICK ($10,700): How can we fade Reddick right now? He has been on fire this year, especially on the larger tracks. Reddick won the races at Darlington (another intermediate track) and Kansas Speedway. He has been the best Toyota at Texas Motor Speedway over the last two seasons. Stacking Denny Hamlin and Reddick at the top of my Tournament Contest lineup gives me the two best drivers in 2026 as my dominators for this race.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,300): Wallace crashed in practice and now he starts 37th Sunday. I will use Wallace as my pivot from the Super Chalk, Ryan Blaney. The 23XI Racing drivers have been very good on the intermediate tracks this year. He finished 3rd at Texas Motor Speedway in 2023 and 7th in 2024. Wallace also finished 9th in Las Vegas and 5th at Kansas this year. Wallace will be in the winning lineup if he can find his way into the top-10 Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($7,800): Chastain has sucked this year. I am sure most people will fade him and use Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece or even Alex Bowman in his price range. Chastain cannot suck all year, right? He started 31st, finished 2nd and was in the winning lineup last year. He also looked decent at Las Vegas earlier this year. I will take a chance with a low-owned Chastain.
COREY HEIM ($6,700): Heim is back in the No. 67 car for 23X1 Racing. He has been very good every time he has competed in the Cup Series. Heim started 28th and finished 13th at Kansas last year (He was in the winning lineup for that race). He qualified 24th and finished 15th at Kansas earlier this season. Heim has too much talent and 23XI Racing has too much speed to fade this young driver. I will gladly set my watch to “Heim Time: this weekend.
* If you want to be more contrarian, switch Corey Heim to Erik Jones. Jones finished 2nd in two of the last four races at Texas.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,400): Gilliland will be my “punt play” at the bottom of my Tournament Contest lineup. I love playing Gilliland in races where there is a lot of chaos. He finished 11th last week at Talladega. Texas Motor Speedway is not as bad at Talladega, but this race does average 12 cautions. Gilliland is good at staying out of trouble. He should score a lot of place differential points from his 32nd starting position.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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