The NASCAR Cup Series traveled across the country this week to compete at Phoenix Raceway. This is an important race on the Cup Series schedule because it is a test for the teams to see what they may have for the championship race in November and it is a chance for NASCAR to decide what type of tire will be used in that race. It should be fun to see how it all plays out in the desert this week. The Shriners Children’s 500 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
What a roller coaster of a race it was in COTA last week. Ross Chastain (one of my drivers) decided to dive-bomb the first corner of the race and take out Chase Elliott. Later in the race Denny Hamlin forgot how to drive and took out Connor Zilisch. If that wasn’t enough, Kyle Larson left the pits with three tires and that ruined his day. The Fantasy Live picks must have dropped like a rock, right? Somehow the drivers rebounded and the picks went from outscoring 68% of the entries to outscoring 75% of the entries. We are heading in the right direction and I expect a good race this week in Phoenix.
Here are my results from the COTA…
PRACTICE SPEEDS FOR PHOENIX
STRATEGY FOR PHOENIX
There are two races at Phoenix but they are completely different. The spring race is open to more drivers finishing up front and more drivers having a chance to win the race. Chase Briscoe won the spring race in 2022, William Byron won in 2023 and Christopher Bell went to Victory Lane last spring. The Championship Race in November is dominated by the four drivers competing for the championship and that typically means Team Penske is up front and in Victory Lane. I expect Team Penske to do their thing at Phoenix, but there will be some other teams with speed Sunday too.
NASCAR brought an “option tire” to the track this week. This tire is softer and provides more speed early in the run, but it will wear out fast. Teams get two sets of the option tire and they can use it whenever they want to. The teams will likely use this tire to gain track position to score Stage Points and at the end of the race to make a run for the checkered flag. Just when we thought we were going to get an easy race to predict, NASCAR brings a gimmick to the track to create closer racing. I am not worried about the tire Sunday. I am simply selecting the best drivers possible and let the race play out as it may.
Here are the picks for the Shriners Children’s 500…
WILLIAM BYRON (9): Byron won the spring race in Phoenix in 2023 and he should have a good chance to get back to Victory Lane Sunday. Byron won the Daytona 500. That means the he has a win in his pocket and the No. 24 team can take some chances with the option tire to get Byron some track position and another win. Byron always starts the season off on a hot streak. The 2025 season is no different.
JOEY LOGANO (8): Logano leads the Cup Series with two wins in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. Both of his wins have come in the Championship Race, but the No. 22 car looks fast this weekend. Logano said he liked his car in practice and then he went out and qualified on the front row. Logano should lead a lot of laps, score a lot of Stage Points and finish up front Sunday.
RYAN BLANEY (9): Blaney is almost a lock for a top-five finish Sunday. There have been six races in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix and Blaney finished 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd 2nd and 4th. That is good enough for a 2.8 average finishing position since 2021. Blaney has an average finishing position of 6th in his last 12 races at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick used to be the “King of Phoenix”, but there is a new driver wearing the crown, and his name is Ryan Blaney.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (10): Bell is on a hot streak and I doubt a trip to the desert will cool him down. Bell won the last two races and he will be going for the three-peat Sunday. Bell won this race last year and he has a lot of speed again this weekend. Bell won this race from the 13th starting spot last year. He should be able to do it again from the 11th starting position Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (9): Reddick often gets overlooked by Fantasy NASCAR players at Phoenix and that could be a mistake. Reddick finished both races at Phoenix in the top-10 last year and he finished 3rd in the spring race in 2023. Reddick led 68 laps, scored 19 Stage Points and finished 10th in this race last year. The No. 45 car was fast enough Saturday weekend to have a similar race Sunday.
(GARAGE PICK) KYLE LARSON (10): Larson needs a good run at Phoenix after he finished 20th in the Daytona 500 and 32nd last week at COTA. I think he will get it. Larson has finished three of the last four races at Phoenix Raceway in the top-four. The No. 5 car posted the fastest speed on the long runs in practice. He was tracking faster than Joey Logano in qualifying until he hooked his tire on the apron. Larson has one of the fastest cars but he starts deep in the field, so I will start him in the Garage Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.