The NASCAR Cup Series will travel back to the Lone Star State this weekend to race at Texas Motor Speedway. This is race No. 11 on the schedule. It is hard to believe, but the Fantasy Live regular season will be half-way complete in a few weeks. This is the time of year when I like to adjust my picks I made for each race before the season began and start focusing more on the 2025 speeds from each team. This strategy has worked out well for me in the past and I expect the same this year. It all begins with the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway. .
My goal when the Cup Series races on the Superspeedway tracks are to just survive the race and not lose too many points. That did not happen last week at Talladega. Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch ran into each other at the end of Stage 1, while try to get to pit road. Three of my drivers taken out early in the race is just horrible luck. Joey Logano (illegal car), Austin Cindric (won the race) and Alex Bowman were left to score points for my team. The lineup fell from outscoring 97% of the entries to outscoring 96.3% of the entries. We will need to bounce back this week at Texas.
Here are my results from the Talladega…
PRACTICE SPEEDS FOR TEXAS
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Wurth 400. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice.
So, how did the practice speeds translate into race speed last year at Texas Motor Speedway? Kyle Larson led the most laps (77) and he posted the 3rd fast speed in practice with the 2nd-fastest long-run speed. Chase Elliott won the race and Tyler Reddick led the third-most laps and finished fourth. Elliott and Reddick were also fast in practice. We can expect the drivers at the top of the speed chart in practice to be in front of the field Sunday in the Wurth 400.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice session at Texas Motor Speedway…
STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
The Cup Series has three consecutive point races on the 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter tracks coming up on the schedule (Texas, Kansas and Charlotte). The cream typically rises to the top at these tracks, so we need to use our picks wisely. Texas is the wild card of the three races. There have been eight winners in the last eight races at Texas Motor Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports and 23X1 Racing have been the most consistent teams at Texas, so I will have a lot of their drivers in my lineups this weekend. I will use some of my top drivers this week, since the races on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks are more predictable than the other tracks on the schedule.
Here are the picks for the Wurth 400…
KYLE LARSON (6): Larson already has a win this year on a 1.5-mile track (Homestead-Miami Speedway). I would not be surprised if “Yung Money” went to Victory Lane Sunday in Texas. Larson has led at least 75 laps in three of the last five races in Texas. He has also won a Stage in three consecutive races at Texas Motor Speedway. The No. 5 car has been too fast this year to fade this week.
WILLIAM BYRON (5): The race at Texas Motor Speedway is a good chance to use an allocation with the No. 24 car. Byron leads the Cup Series with an average finishing position of 3.7 in the Gen-7 car at Texas. That includes a trip to Victory Lane in 2023 and a 3rd-place finish last year. Byron is usually much better in the first-half of the season, so I will have him in my lineup this weekend.
DENNY HAMLIN (7): I want to save my allocations with Hamlin for the short tracks, but the No. 11 car is just too fast to ignore this weekend. Hamlin posted the 12TH-fastest speed on the long-runs in practice and Hamlin qualified 8th for the race. Hamlin finished 3rd at Texas in 2023 and 10th last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10 again Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (5): Reddick has been one of the best drivers at Texas in the Gen-7 car. He won the race at Texas Motor Speedway in 2022 and he finished 4th last year. He has also averaged 30-laps led in the last three races at this track. The No. 45 car looked fast in practice, so I will take a chance with Reddick in the Wurth 400.
BUBBA WALLACE (7): Texas ranks as the 3rd-best track for Wallace. He is also really good at Indianapolis and Pocono, so I will save an allocation with the No. 23 car for those races too. Wallace should have won the race at Texas in 2023. He led 111 laps, scored Stage Points in both Stages and finished 3rd. He came back last year and finished 7th. I will take a chance with Wallace on one of his best tracks Sunday.
(GARAGE PICK) TY GIBBS (9): Gibbs has been a tough driver to trust in your Fantasy NASCAR lineups, but he is getting better. Gibbs is usually at his best on the 1.5-mile tracks. If you watched practice, you heard Clint Bowyer screaming about how fast the No. 54 car is this weekend. Gibbs has the speed, but can he put together a mistake-free race? I will have the No. 54 car in the Garage just in case this is the race when Gibbs gets to Victory Lane for the first time in the Cup Series.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.