RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (JTG DAUGHERTY RACING) CHEVY
2023 DRIVER FANTASY POINTS: 20th
2024 FANTASY NASCAR RANK: 21st
* The 2024 ranking are based on the driver’s projected points scored for the 2024 season and not his predicted finish in the Cup Series standings. The rankings are based on the driver’s performance last year, momentum heading into the 2024 season and the strength of the driver’s team.
2023 RECAP: Wow, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been in the Cup Series for 11 full seasons. It seems like yesterday he was winning back-to-back Xfinity Series Championships. The 2023 season was his best season in the Cup Series. Stenhouse won more races and finished higher in the point standings in 2017, but winning the Daytona 500 last year has to be the highlight of his career.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. showed improvement in his second year in the Next Gen car. Stenhouse went from 5 finishes in the top-10 in 2022 to 9 finishes in the top-10 last year. His average starting position improved from 25.5 to 21.8 and his average finishing position improved from 22.8 to 17.8. The most important improvement was with his fantasy points. Stenhouse scored the 26th most points in 2022 and the 20th most points last year. He was one of the best sleeper picks in DFS last year. I expect the same in 2024.
2024 PREVIEW: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was a free agent at the end of the 2023 season, but JTG Daugherty liked the direction their team was going, so they decided to sign Stenhouse to a multi-year contract. Everything will be the same in 2024 for the No. 47 team. Mike Kelly will return as the crew chief and Kroger and NOS Energy Drink will be the primary sponsors on the car. Toyota and Ford will have a new chassis in 2024, but the Chevy’s will once again use the Camaro ZL1 car. Keeping the car the same should give the Chevy’s an advantage early in the season. The other two manufactures will be starting with a clean sheet of paper, while the Chevy’s will have last year’s notes to work with. JTG Daugherty will once again have a technical alliance with Hendrick Motorsports. Sharing notes with HMS should help Stenhouse in 2024.
SUPERSPEEDWAY VALUE (DAYTONA, TALLADEGA, ATLANTA)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the Daytona 500 last year so a lot of people assume he is a great Superspeedway driver. Stenhouse is good at working the draft and running up front. Finishing the races is where he has problems and that is all that matters in Fantasy NASCAR.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. backed up his Daytona 500 win with a 34th-place finish in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in August. His average finishing position in the Next-Gen car at Daytona is 21.25.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has the same fantasy value at Talladega that he has at Daytona. He will run up front, lead some laps, score some Stage Points and then crash in the final Stage. His average finishing position at Talladega in the Next Gen car is 22.25.
The best Superspeedway track for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been Atlanta. He finished 10th and 17th in the two races at Atlanta last year.
You can take a chance with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. if you want to in your season-long leagues, but I would rather take a chance Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric or Brad Keselowski. Don’t over value allocations in Fantasy Live and the Driver Group Game. Drivers go through hot and cold streaks. You can easily navigate the games by using drivers while they are hot. Stenhouse will have value in DFS if he qualifies outside the top-20, with a good chance to score place differential points.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 18th in fantasy points scored on the Superspeedways last year with an average finishing position of 16.8)
SHORT-FLAT TRACK VALUE (PHOENIX, RICHMOND, MARTINSVILLE, GATEWAY, NEW HAMPSHIRE, IOWA)
We need drivers who can lead laps and finish in the top-15 in our season-long leagues at the short, flat tracks. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was not very good at either of those stat categories. He finished 19th and 23rd at Phoenix, 17th and 35th at Richmond, 18th at New Hampshire and 35th at Gateway. He did have an 8th-place finish at Martinsville but it was a fluke. It was the first time Stenhouse every finished inside the top-15 at the track. There are better drivers to use in your season-long and DFS lineups when the Cup Series competes on the short, flat tracks in 2024.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 26th in fantasy points scored on the short-flat tracks last year with an average finishing position of 19.9)
HIGH-BANKED TRACK VALUE (BRISTOL, DOVER)
Too bad NASCAR decided to take the dirt off of Bristol Motor Speedway for the spring race. The Bristol Dirt Race was Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s best track on the schedule. He finished 4th last year and 2nd in 2021 on the dirt. Stenhouse did have a good run in the Bristol Night Race last year. He started 25th and finished 10th. His average finishing position in his three prior night races is 31st, so his finish last year was likely a fluke too. I recommend fading Stenhouse in both races at Bristol in 2024.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has been a good pick at Dover. He finished 2nd at the Monster Mile in 2022 and 15th last year. There are better choices for your season-long lineups at Dover, but he is worth a look in DFS contests if the No. 47 car has speed in practice.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 12th in fantasy points scored on the high-banked tracks last year with an average finishing position of 12.5)
ROAD COURSE TRACK VALUE (COTA, SONOMA, WATKINS GLEN, CHICAGO STREET, CHARLOTTE ROVAL)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. used to be known as the worst driver at the road courses. He has worked hard in the simulator and it is starting to show up at the track. Stenhouse finished 7th at COTA, 12th at Sonoma and 13th at Watkins Glen last year. He also finished 34th in the Chicago Street Course Race, 25th at the Indy Road Course, and 34th at the Charlotte Roval. Stenhouse has been too inconsistent to use in your season-long leagues at the road courses. He is worth a spot in your DFS lineups at COTA, Sonoma and Watkins Glen if the price is cheap enough.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 21st in fantasy points scored on the road courses last year with an average finishing position of 20.8)
HIGH TIRE WEAR TRACK VALUE (AUTO CLUB, DARLINGTON, MICHIGAN, HOMESTEAD)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. started the season with a 12th place finish at Auto Club and a 13th place finish at Darlington. It was looking like Stenhouse was going to have some fantasy value at the high tire wear tracks in 2023. That was not the case. He finished 21st at Michigan and 27th at Homestead to end the season. There are better drivers to use in your season-long lineups at the high tire wear tracks. Stenhouse will only have value in DFS contest if the price is cheap and he has speed on the long runs in practice.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 23rd in fantasy points scored on the high tire wear tracks last year with an average finishing position of 17.8)
INTERMEDIATE TRACK VALUE (LAS VEGAS, KANSAS, CHARLOTTE AND TEXAS)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was a better driver for DFS Contests then he was for season-long games on the intermediate tracks last year. Stenhouse finished 12th at Kansas, 7th at Charlotte and 9th at Texas, but he did not score many Stage Points and he did not lead many laps.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will have a lot of fantasy value in the Coca-Cola 600. He finished 7th in both races using the Next Gen car at Charlotte. His average finishing position in the last 9 Coca-Cola 600’s is 9.4. That is a large sample size with a lot of positive results. Stenhouse should be considered for your season-long and DFS lineups at Charlotte. It would also be a good idea to use Stenhouse in your One & Done contest at the track.
I recommend fading Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in your season-long lineups in the other races on the 1.5-mile tracks. Stenhouse has the upside to finish in the top-10, but he is too inconsistent to trust in your season-long lineups. He will be one of the best value picks in your DFS Contests if the price is cheap and he starts deep enough in the field to score place differential points.
(Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ranked 22nd in fantasy points scored on the intermediate tracks last year with an average finishing position of 16.7)
Best Tracks for Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 1) Charlotte, 2) Dover, 3) Darlington, 4) Pocono, 5) Atlanta
Be sure to check out all of the Driver Preview articles that will be released later this week. I will have the drivers ranked 21st – 35th for FREE. The top-20 will be behind the pay wall, so the members can get an advantage over their competitors.
* Team Information from Jaysky.com
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