Fantasy NASCAR Preview #6: Brad Keselowski

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BRAD KESELOWSKI (TEAM PENSKE RACING) FORD

2019 DRIVER FANTASY RANKING: 6TH   

2018 FANTASY NASCAR RANK: 6TH         

 

2018 RECAP: Brad Keselowski had a good 2018 season but it could have been a lot better. Keselowski got off to a slow start but he really heated up entering the playoffs. Keselowski won the two races before the start of the playoffs (Darlington and Indianapolis) and the first race of the playoffs (Las Vegas). He looked like the favorite to make the final four at Homestead. That was not the case. Keselowski ran well in the playoffs but a 27th-place finish at his best track (Talladega) did him in. Keselowski finished 8th in the Point Standings but his 2018 season was better for fantasy than it was for his Cup Series team. (Brad Keselowski ranked 4th in fantasy points scored in 2018)

Year in Review: Brad Keselowski

 

2019 Preview: There will be two major changes for Brad Keselowski in 2019. Ford will switch to the Mustang chassis and Coleman Pressley will replace Joey Meier as the spotter for the No.2 team. The spotter change is big news because Meier was one of the best at navigating Keselowski through traffic on the Superspeedways. We will find out quickly how this change affects the team when the cars roll on the track at Daytona. The good news for Keselowski is that he will once again work with crew chief Paul Wolfe. The two now become the longest driver-crew chief pair in the garage since Chad Knaus left the No. 48 car. The Keselowski-Wolfe combination works well together and the calls on the pit box should lead to some more wins for Keselowski in 2019.

 

INTERMEDIATE TRACK VALUE

Brad Keselowski had a good season on the intermediate tracks but the No. 2 team had a hard time keeping up with Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick at these tracks. Keselowski won one race (Las Vegas), had five finishes in the top five (41% of the races) and eight finishes in the top 10 (66% of the races). Keselowski should be a consistent top-five finisher at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2019. He is a great choice for the Driver Group Game and Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) early in the season. His best tracks are Atlanta, Las Vegas and Auto Club. Make sure the No. 2 car is in your lineups at these tracks. (Brad Keselowski ranked 5th in fantasy points scored on the intermediate tracks in 2018)

 

SUPERSPEEDWAY TRACK VALUE

Brad Keselowski is the 2nd-best driver in the sport on the Superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) behind his teammate, Joey Logano. Keselowski has five wins at Talladega and one win at Daytona. He is still looking to win his first Daytona 500. For some reason he has really struggled at Daytona the past two seasons. Keselowski finished 27th, 31st, 32nd and 36th in his last four races at Daytona. He struggled at Talladega last year too (finished 27th and 33rd) but he was the most consistent driver at the track before the 2018 season. I still consider Keselowski one of the best choices for your fantasy team at the Superspeedways. He has a lot more value in the Driver Group Game than he has in DFS (Keselowski qualifies too well to be used in DFS). I would fade him at Daytona and use him at Talladega in 2019. (Brad Keselowski ranked 27th in fantasy points scored on the Superspeedways in 2018)

 

FLAT TRACK VALUE

Brad Keselowski has been really good on the flat tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and Loudon) in his career. He is a must start at Martinsville. Keselowski has finished six consecutive races at the paper-clip shaped track in the top 10. That includes one win (2017) and five finishes in the top five. He is also good at Richmond and Phoenix. His average finishing position at Richmond since 2013 is 7.5. He has not been as consistent at Phoenix but he did finish 2nd at the track last November. Keselowski had a horrible race at Loudon last year (finished 32nd), but before that he had three consecutive top-10 finishes at the Magic Mile. Keselowski is at his best at Martinsville and he can be considered at Richmond. I would fade him at Phoenix and Loudon. (Brad Keselowski ranked 4th in fantasy points scored on the flat tracks in 2018)

 

STEEP TRACK VALUE

Brad Keselowski has not been very good at Bristol or Dover but he is good at Darlington. Bristol ranks as the worst track for Keselowski. His average finishing position in his 18 races in Thunder Valley is 18.2. He only has one finish in the top 10 at Bristol since 2014. Fade him at this track. Keselowski has been a little better at Dover but his price is too high in DFS and there are better choices in the Driver Group Game at the Monster Mile. Keselowski has a 13.2 average finishing position at Dover in his 18 races at the track. Keselowski is the defending race winner at Darlington. He usually runs in the top 10 at the Track Too Tough to Tame. I would gage where his season is at before using him at Darlington in 2019. (Brad Keselowski ranked 3rd in fantasy points scored on the steep tracks in 2018)

 

ROAD COURSE TRACK VALUE

Brad Keselowski has not run well at Sonoma or Watkins Glen the past two seasons, but he was one of the best drivers at the Charlotte Roval in 2018. Sonoma is not a good track for Keselowski. He has nine starts at the track and he only finished one race in the top 10. There are better choices for your team in Northern California. Keselowski finish 2nd, 2nd, 2nd between 2011 and 2013 at Watkins Glen. He finished 15th and 17th the last two seasons. For some reason he lost his momentum at this track and we need to fade him in upstate New York until he shows better results. Keselowski was running 2nd in the inaugural Charlotte Roval race when he decided to lead the field into the turn 1 wall. He finished 31st but he was a lot better than that. Keselowski is worth a spot on your fantasy team when the Cup Series returns to Charlotte to race the Roval. (Brad Keselowski ranked 14th in fantasy points scored on the road courses in 2018)

 

Best Tracks to for Brad Keselowski: 1) Atlanta, 2) Las Vegas, 3) Auto Club, 4) Martinsville, 5) Talladega

 

 

*Stats from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com,  Driveraverages.com and career stats from Racing-Reference.Info

* Team Information from Jaysky.com

 

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