The Cup Series is back and they are ready for another short track race. This week the Cup Series travels to Bristol Motor Speedway. “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile” is a high-banked, concrete track is one of the toughest on the schedule. It also produces some of the highest DFS scores of the season. The Food City 500 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
FANTASY STATS FOR BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway is a unique track. This short track is .533-miles in length and the banking is 28 degrees in the corners. That means the cars will carry a lot of speed as they climb the hill into the corners and even more speed as they drive down the track onto the straightaway’s. This track is truly like riding a roller coaster. Some drivers are better than others at this type of racing. I like to look at the driver’s track history to handicap the races at Bristol.
Here is the driver’s Average DraftKings Points in the last five races at Bristol Motor Speedway…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend. The teams were broken up into two groups. Each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for the race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. So, how did practice speeds translate into race speed at Bristol last year? Kyle Larson posted the 4th fastest speed, with the fastest long-run speed at Bristol last year. Only three drivers who posted top-10 speed in practice, finished the race in the top-10 (Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney). Larson was the only driver who posted a top-10 speed on the 10-lap average speed chart that finished in the top-10. Practice speed did not translate to race speed in 2024 as well. So, I will not be using the practice speeds as the main factor in my picks Sunday.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway…
* Ryan Preece, Bubba Wallace and Alex Bowman did a tire test at Bristol earlier this season. They should have a good idea of how the tires wear over the race. (I am sure they shared this information with their teammates).
STRATEGY FOR BRISTOL
The Food City 500 is scheduled for 500 laps. That means there are 350 dominator points up for grabs. We MUST score as many of these dominator points as possible.
Kyle Larson led 462 laps and scored 81 fastest laps at Bristol in 2024 (151.95 dominator points). Last year, Larson led 411 laps and scored 85 fastest laps (141 dominator points). The 750 HP Package should make the race more competitive, but you will still need the top dominator in your lineup Sunday. I plan to pay up for the drivers with the best chance to lead the most laps in the Food City 500.
WINNING LINEUPS AT BRISTOL 2024-2025
Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs and Zane Smith have shown up in the most winning lineups at Bristol. I was surprised to see that the drivers who start on the front row were not in the winning lineup in the last two spring races at Bristol. I researched it some more, and the drivers who started on the pole only showed up in the winning lineup once in the spring races with the Gen-7 car. The most common lineup strategy has been to select two drivers over $10K, two “punt plays” (drivers priced under $6,500) and two value picks (drivers priced from $6,800 -$8,200). This strategy should work again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
RYAN BLANEY ($10,700): Team Penske is at their best on the short tracks, so I will play Blaney this week. The No. 12 car posted the fastest speed on almost all of the long-run speed charts in practice and Blaney won the pole for the race. Blaney won at Phoenix, finished 3rd at Darlington and 6th at Martinsville using the 750 HP Package. The No. 12 car should lead a lot of laps, score a lot of fastest laps and have a great chance to win Sunday, as long as his pit crew doesn’t screw it up for him.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): You almost have to play Byron in your Cash Contest lineups Sunday. I typically do not like to use drivers who start outside the top-30 at Bristol because drivers go a lap down earlier at this track, but I trust the No. 24 team. Byron should quickly make his way through the field and score 15-20 place differential points. That is perfect for your Cash Contest lineup.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,700): I used Keselowski as a value play at Darlington and it worked out well. He led the most laps, score the most fastest laps and finished 2nd. Darlington is similar to Bristol, so Keselowski should be good again this weekend. Keselowski also finished 2nd in the last race at Bristol. He will be in the winning lineup if he finishes 2nd Sunday.
RYAN PREECE ($7,500): Preece is a short track ace. He didn’t set the track on fire last year at Bristol (Preece finished 21st and 20th in 2025), but this pick is more about his 2026 speed. Preece won on the short track at Bowman Gray Stadium, finished 13th at Phoenix, finished 13th at Darlington and 12th last week at Martinsville. Preece can finish up front when the No. 60 car has speed. Preece is just too good on the short track to pass up.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,000): I am glad to see Bowman back in the No. 48 car and I hope his health allows his to complete the reason. He really wanted to return for the race at Bristol and I can understand why. Bristol ranks as the best track for Bowman. He finished 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol in the top-10. Bowman posted the 5th-fastest speed on the 10-lap speed chart and the 3rd-fastest speed on the 15-lap speed chart in practice. Bowman should score a lot of place differential points from the 27th starting position.
AUSTIN DILLON ($5,800): My model says to play Zane Smith in the spot, but I do not want Smith in both lineups, so I will pivot to Dillon. He finished 10th in this race last year and he finished 3 of the last 5 races inside the top-20. I do not need much from Dillon Sunday. A top-20 from Dillon should work in Cash Contest lineups.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,500): Larson has a history of smoking the field at Bristol Motor Speedway. He led 411 laps, won both Stages and went to Victory Lane in the Food City 500 last year. He also led 462 laps, won both Stages and went to Victory Lane in the Bristol Night Race in 2024. Larson has a history of dominating the races at Bristol. He has a good chance to do it again Sunday. * Larson will lose his pit stall selection because the No. 5 team failed inspection twice. I still think he is fast enough to overcome this issue.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,700): I hate being all in with the No. 12 car, but Blaney is too fast to pass up. He is my pick for the top dominator. You can pivot to Chase Briscoe or Tyler Reddick starting up front, but Blaney is much better than those two drivers on the short tracks.
CARSON HECEVAR ($8,000): Hocevar should be one of the best value picks Sunday. His aggressive driving style works well at Bristol. Hocevar finished 7th and 11th in his two races at Bristol last year. The most similar track to Bristol so far this year is Darlington. Hocevar started 16th and finished 4th at “The Lady in Black.” Hacevar had the 2nd-fastest car on the long-run speed charts in practice. He is the perfect play for your Tournament Contest lineups Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,000): I am hoping some people will be afraid to use Bowman Sunday. The doctors cleared him to race, so I will clear him for my DFS lineups. This is Bowman’s best track. He is just too good and too cheap to pass up from the 27th starting position Sunday.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($6,500): McDowell is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think of racing at Bristol, but he has been a good sleeper pick for your DFS lineups. McDowell starts 19th and he has an average finishing position of 14th in his last 6 races at Bristol. McDowell posted the 5th-fastest speed on the 15-lap speed chart, the 3rd-fastest speed on the 20-lap speed chart and the 2nd-fastest speed on the 25-lap speed chart. His car is fast enough to move up in the race Sunday.
ZANE SMITH ($6,100): Smith was in the winning lineup in the last race at Bristol. He started 24th, finished 3rd and scored 63.25 DK Points. Can Smith do it again Sunday? He ran well at Bristol in the Truck Series, so he knows his way around this tough track. Smith should be one of the best “punt plays” for your DFS lineups at Bristol.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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