The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Navy Base Coronado this weekend for the first ever race on a military installation. NASCAR, the military and the fans have been waiting a year for this race and it is finally here. We do not know how good the race will be at the base, but we can expect the visual effects of the track will be outstanding. NASCAR picked a good way to celebrate Father’s Day with a race at a track like nothing we have seen before. The Anduril 250 Race the Base can be seen Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR NAVY BASE CORONADO
The Cup Series has never raced at Navy Base Coronado so we do not have any track history to work with this week. The most similar track to Navy Base Coronado is the Chicago Street Course. I am using the three races in Chicago and combing it with the race at Sonoma last year and the race at Watkins Glen this year to handicap the race Sunday (COTA is nothing like Navy Base Coronado so I am not using the stats from that race).
Here are the stats from the races on the road course races that are similar to Navy Base Coronado, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
Navy Base Coronado is a new track for the Cup Series so NASCAR gave the teams some extra track time. Instead of breaking down the field into two groups and giving them 25-minutes to dial in their cars for Sunday’s race, each team had 50-minutes to figure out this new track. Navy Base Coronado is a 3.44-mile road course with 16 turns. It is the longest track on the schedule. The teams did not have time to make many long runs, so we will have to use the single-lap speeds for our picks this weekend.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Navy Base Coronado….
STRATEGY FOR NAVY BASE CORONADO
The race Sunday is scheduled for 75 laps (255 miles). That means there are 18.75 points available for leading laps and 33.75 points available for fastest laps (52.5 dominator points). I expect one driver (Shane van Gisbergen) to lead half of the laps. Is that enough to justify paying $13K for SVG Sunday? I am not going to be all in with SVG just because there are not enough laps for him to completely destroy the field. I am not going to fade him though, because his chances of being in the winning lineup will be high. I plan to play SVG in 30% of my lineups and take a chance with the other drivers in 70% of my lineups.
WINNING LINEUPS AT ROAD COURSES (2026)
I looked at the winning lineups from the two road course races this year (COTA and Watkins Glen) to get an idea of how the winning lineup may look after the race at Navy Base Coronado. Shane van Gisbergen was in the winning lineup at Watkins Glen and he did not make the winning lineup at COTA, so my strategy of using SVG in 50% of my lineups Sunday should pay off.
Tyler Reddick was the only driver who showed up in both lineups. I looked at the road course races over the last year and Reddick showed up in 5 of the last 7 winning lineups on the road course races. He may be more valuable than SVG this week.
The lineups spent most of the $50K salary cap and the average starting position was in the teens. That seems to be the sweet spot for the road course races. The drivers who can start 15th and finished 8th (for example) have a lot of value in the road course races.
CHRISTOPHER BELL SITUATION
Christopher Bell is racing with a broken wrist. He said his chances of finishing the race are 50/50. Brent Crews is on standby to drive the No. 20 car…
Bell could pit early for a driver change and lose significant track position.
If the change occurs under green, he could lose a lap.
Even if he stays in the car, he may not be able to attack the braking zones or restart aggressively because of the wrist.
At $9,500, you’re paying for a ceiling that now has much more uncertainty.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
Tyler Reddick ($10,200) is almost a lock for Cash Contest lineups. He is also a good play for Tournament Contests, but his ownership will be high. Reddick has finished 6 consecutive road course races in the top-10. He should score a lot of place differential points Sunday…. William Byron ($9,300) is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Byron missed his braking zone in qualifying so now he starts 27th. Byron has an average finishing position of 9th in his last 5 road course races. He should move up 15-20 spots Sunday…. Chase Elliott ($9,000) has a history of qualifying poorly and then racing his way through the field on the road courses. Elliott starts 30th. He is just too good on the road courses to not score 15-20 place differential points at Navy Base Coronado…. Chase Briscoe ($8,600) is another driver with a lot of upside Sunday. He starts 22nd and Briscoe finished 3 of his last five road course races in the top-five. It should have been 4 out of 5 but he had a transaxle break at COTA this year…. Alex Bowman ($7,300) is one of the best values on the slate. He really excels on the street course tracks. Bowman won on the streets of Chicago in 2024 and he finished 4th last year. He has a good chance to finish in the top-12 Sunday…. Austin Dillon ($5,600) will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. He is another driver who is good on street courses. Dillon finished 10th at Chicago last year and 15th in 2024. He should be able to stay inside the top-20 and be a good play for your Cash Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
I am going to fade the highest-priced drivers who will have a lot of ownership and start my Tournament Contest with Ty Gibbs ($9,700). He is the second-best driver to SVG on the street course in Chicago. Gibbs has a good chance to win if SVG has problems Sunday… William Byron ($9,300) will be in both lineups this week. Usually I do not like to play one driver in the Cash and Tournament Contest lineups, but I trust him to score a lot of place differential points Sunday and be in the winning lineup… Chris Buescher ($9,200) is one of the safest drivers in the field at Navy Base Coronado. I thought about using Michael McDowell in this spot, but I think his ownership will be much higher. Buescher has a good chance to finish in the top-five from the16th starting position… AJ Allmendinger ($8,500) will likely be the chalk, but he is good chalk this week. Allmendinger is at his best on these street course tracks. He should finish in the top-10 in San Diego…. Alex Bowman ($7,300) is in both lineups this weekend too. His price is just too good to pass up when Bowman starts 20th on a street course… John H. Nemechek ($5,800) could be the ticket to the winning lineup Sunday. I thought about using Riley Herbst in this spot, but I trust Nemechek more. Legacy Motorsports has been running well lately. I think it will continue at Navy Base Coronado.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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