The NASCAR Cup Series will compete at Dover International Speedway Sunday. Miles the Monster has a history of ruining good cars but it has still been tough to find a long-shot in Victory Lane at this track. The drivers who have won at this track in the 750 HP aero package include Kevin Harvick (twice), Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. All of these drivers are the favorites again this week. Will we see a driver with odds longer than 10-1 in Victory Lane Sunday? I think there is a chance.
DraftKings Odds for Drydene 400
* The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Martin Truex Jr., you will win $3.
Here are my “Best Bets” for the race at Dover…
Denny Hamlin (6-1): Denny Hamlin is not going winless in 2021. The No. 11 car will be in Victory Lane soon and I want a ticket on Hamlin when he cashes in. He won this race last year, so he is no stranger to Victory Lane. Hamlin will start on the front row Sunday and he will have one of the premium pit stalls. I like Hamlin’s odds better than Martin Truex Jr. odds, so I will put my money on the No. 11 car at Dover.
Kyle Busch (8-1): Kyle Busch seems to be happy in the car again. I always said that Busch’s worst enemy was himself. I know he says it motivates him to be angry in the car, but you would have to think being pissed off in the car would cause him to overdrive the car. Busch is happy now that he has a win and a third-place finish in his last two races. I am betting that we see un-Rowdy Busch in Victory Lane Sunday.
Joey Logano (16-1): Joey Logano has been a beast in the 750 HP aero package this season. He finished 2nd at Phoenix, won the Bristol Dirt Race, 6th at Martinsville, 3rd at Richmond and ran most of the race in the top-five at Darlington but a pit road penalty sent him back in the field. Logano finished 6th and 8th in the two races at Dover last year. The most similar track to Dover is Bristol and Logano won that race. I know that was a dirt track race, but most of the drivers said it didn’t drive to differently from a normal Bristol race.
William Byron (16-1): If the No. 24 team had Jeff Gordon’s name over the door instead of William Byron’s name; the odds for this car would be 8-1 or better Sunday. Byron is driving as well as anyone in the sport right now. He has finished the last 10 race in the top-10, including one win. Byron starts up front and should have a good chance to win Sunday. We get a bargain at 16-1 odds.
Long-Shot Special: My Long-Shot Special this week is Ross Chastain (250-1). I know you may feel like you are throwing away your money by betting Chastain to win, but there is a method to my madness. First, we do not have to bet a lot to win a lot. I will put $2 on Chastain and hope he brings back $500 profit. Second, the No. 42 team has shown this season that they are willing to gamble with pit strategy to get up front. They did it last week at Darlington and it almost paid off. Maybe it will work Sunday. Chastain finished 2nd and 3rd in his last two races at Dover in the Xfinity Series. Hopefully that translates into success Sunday. I will bet a couple bucks and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.
Good luck this week!
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