Best Bets for Dover

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The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Dover Motor Speedway this week to take on the Monster Mile. The “Best Bets” started off the season cashing in at a pretty good rate, but then the calendar turned to April and the picks went cold. That had a lot to do with the crazy races we had at Texas and Talladega. The next five races (Dover, Darlington, Kansas, Charlotte and Gateway) should be easier to predict. I will do my best to help us cash some tickets and get back on a hot streak in 2024.

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR DOVER

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

 

BETTING STRATEGY FOR DOVER

It is always nice to cash a ticket with a long-shot bet, but that is not likely to happen this week. The last eight winners at Dover have included Chase Elliott (2018 and 2022), Martin Truex Jr. (2019 and 2023), Kyle Larson (2019), Denny Hamlin (2020), Alex Bowman (2021) and Kevin Harvick (2020). The Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Drivers have won eight of the 10 races and all of the non-Superspeedway races. They have also won seven of the last eight races at Dover. It would be a good idea to stick to the drivers from Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing for your bets this week. I know they will not bring back a good return on your investment, but they are the most likely drivers to win Sunday.

 

BETTING CARD FOR DOVER

* I use a $100 bankroll each week. I will bet $40 now and save the remaining $60 for after qualifying. I will likely bet $30 each on two drivers who look fast in practice.

 

CHASE ELLIOTT (11-1): Elliott has been the best driver in NASCAR over the last month. He finished 5th at Richmond, 3rd at Martinsville and won the race at Texas. Now Elliott gets to race at one of his best tracks. Elliott won at Dover in 2018 and then again in the Gen-7 car in 2022. His hot streak and track history makes Elliott a good bet at 11-1 odds Sunday.

ALEX BOWMAN (16-1): I want as many drivers as possible from Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing on my betting card this week, so I will take Bowman at 16-1 odds. He finished 5th, 1st and 5th in his last three races at Dover, so Bowman knows this track well. He also finished 4th at Bristol, 4th at COTA, 8th at Martinsville and 5th last week at Talladega, so Bowman is on a bit of a hot streak right now. Dover is the best track for Bowman, so I like his chances of winning Sunday.

TY GIBBS (18-1): You should not be surprised to see Gibbs on my card this week. I have been betting on the No. 54 car a lot this year. Those tickets haven’t cashed yet, but I think they will pretty soon. I am not worried about the stats with this young driver. Joe Gibbs Racing will give him one of the fastest cars in the field. Gibbs has matured as a driver this year, so I trust that he can avoid making mistakes and get his car to Victory Lane Sunday.

 

* I will add a few more bets after qualifying this weekend.

 

Good luck Sunday!

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