Best Bets for Homestead


The Cup Series will race at another 1.5-mile track this week when they travel to Southern Florida to compete at Homestead-Miami Speedway. I wrote in my Best Bets article last week that all of the winners on the 1.5-mile tracks have come from the 12-1 to 20-1 odds range. Right on cue, Joey Logano went Victory Lane at 12-1 odds at Las Vegas. There is a good chance the winner Sunday will come from this range too so I will be betting some of the mid-tier drivers Sunday.

I hope you took my advice in my “Best Bets to Win the Championship” article I posted in February. I wrote that Joey Logano was a great value at 16-1 odds. I put $20 on the No. 22 car in February so I will be more than happy to cash my $320 ticket. I also have $20 tickets on Chase Elliott at 6-1 odds and Christopher Bell at 20-1 odds. So you know which three drivers I will be cheering for this week… 😊



* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Tyler Reddick, you will win $7.


Here are my best bets for the race at Homestead

ROSS CHASTAIN (10-1): There are a lot of reasons to like Chastain this week. The race at Homestead will likely be won on pit road and on restarts. Chastain ranked No. 1 in both categories last week at Las Vegas. His pit crew average 9.4 seconds per stop (No. 1) and he averaged 3.6 positions gained on restarts (No. 1). Chastain finished second last week. I will bet he can win Sunday.

CHRISTOPHER BELL (12-1): The No. 20 car is backed into a corner now that Bubba Wallace took Bell out at Las Vegas. The last time Bell was in a “must win situation” he went to Victory Lane (Charlotte Roval). Can he do it again? I think so. Bell ranks No. 1 in Driver Ranking on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and his team will not be worried too much about Stage Points. They will use pit strategy to go for the win Sunday. I like that.

WILLIAM BYRON (12-1): Byron was my pick to win this race once I ran the stats for the Dixie Vodka 400. Now he falls into the sweet spot with odds of 12-1. Will Byron be the next driver with 12-1 odds to go to Victory Lane? I will bet that he will be. He won this race last year and the No. 24 car is running well right now.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (12-1): Will the Cup Series get the number of drivers in Victory Lane this year to 20? If they do, Truex will likely be the driver to do it. He has been a beast at Homestead and he has run well on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. Truex finished 3rd, 12th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st in his last five races at Homestead. I will bet on Truex at one of his best tracks.


LONG SHOT SPECIAL DANIEL SUAREZ (30-1): The only thing keeping Suarez out of Victory Lane is bad luck. The No. 99 car has had the same speed that the No. 1 car (Ross Chastain) has had but Suarez continues to be collected in other driver’s wrecks. Suarez is too good of a value to pass up at 30-1 odds. Put $5 down on My Amigo and enjoy watching him run up front at Homestead. Just make sure you are holding your rabbit’s foot and praying no one spins out in front of him.


Good luck this week!


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